Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[chessmaster10] 21/6/2023 14:56

I'm looking at 180p-200p within this year.

It can be argued that the company is fully valued at 150p based on current metrics, but the company has made acquisistions and the economic outlook for the next 6-12months is quite bleak. There will be more rate hikes, and businesses will suffer as a result.

If you look a monthly chart, 200p has been the historic resistance, so I'm betting that we get a re-test of that level.

This isn't a 'hold forever' company, its cyclical, but I think its cycle peak is still to come. I'm looking for a run up to 200p, then either to fall back or consolidate before a push over to 220p-ish.

All dependent on the team delivering, without significant dilution or similar.

[rob762243] 20/6/2023 12:23

Only a matter of time with all the current news for this to start to rise, what would people say is a fair valuation?

[aeonflux] 16/6/2023 10:15

Corporate insolvencies jump 40% in England and WalesValentina Romei in LondonCorporate insolvencies jumped by 40 per cent in the year to May in England and Wales, as businesses struggled with rising costs and a slowing economy.Data published by the Insolvency Service on Friday showed that the number of registered company insolvencies reached 2,552 last month. That is up from 1,825 in the same month of 2022 and nearly double the figure in May 2019.David Hudson, restructuring advisory partner at FRP, said that conditions were "incredibly challenging" for businesses, with "borrowing costs and elevated input prices - particularly from payroll - squeezing margins."

[amanitaangelicus] 13/6/2023 05:29

North East eg Stockton, North Tyneside big increase in insolvencies yr on yr. The rest of the NE will be suffering too no doubt. Begs undervalued but its their buying up of other firms, in some ways, limits faster share price progress.

[2vdm] 06/6/2023 06:40

Got me puzzled too Rob. Fundamentals look good and no lack of business going fwd.

[rob762243] 02/6/2023 10:12

I'm really puzzled by this, it seems like after q3 update they are still in line to hit a PBT of around 20mill. I think you can assume then they have already hit 15mill. But with those financials and a market cap of 180mill you'd get a around 10% yield for this company! Why is it so cheap?!

[edmonda] 02/6/2023 09:50

A new note today from Equity Dev adds FY24e forecasts, which of course exclude the potential for more earning enhancing acquisitions.
With a recent positive TU from BEG, ED's fair value stays at 175p/share.

Read it here:

[bigdogawoof] 26/5/2023 17:37

Realise this is the US but many of the market dynamics are the same as UK:-More of the article: The bankruptcies come after years of quiescent markets and rising valuations allowed even financially stressed firms to raise debt and equity capital to stay afloat. Debt default rates had fallen to about 1 per cent in 2021 as central banks pumped money into the coronavirus pandemic-stressed economy. Now, S&P Global forecasts that the 12-month trailing default rate for speculative-grade securities will jump from the current 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent by early 2024. Yields on junk bonds have more than doubled from less than 4 per cent in mid-2021, as measured by the BofA US High Yield Index, an indication of how much more expensive capital has become for less creditworthy borrowers. The Federal Reserve has warned that lenders could further contract the supply of credit to businesses after recent turmoil in the banking sector."Our general view is that we are going to see an increase in 'hard restructurings', driven by the combination of higher debt levels from the borrowing binge of Covid and rising interest rates. The triggers will be running out money and inability to refinance maturing debt," said Bill Derrough, an investment banker at Moelis who advises clients across distressed situations. "Some companies have used every trick in the book and now have run out of tricks."

[bigdogawoof] 26/5/2023 17:35

In the FT today:In a sign of a tightening credit squeeze in the US, more large companies are sheltering in bankruptcy court as interest rates rise. Eight companies with more than $500mn in liabilities have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in May, with five filing in one 24-hour period last week.

[this_is_me] 25/5/2023 11:29

revenue doubling in 5 years makes it a growth stock.

[steadyaway1] 25/5/2023 09:30

My take of this stock is a lot of holders are planning to flip out as economic growth resumes into racier stocks, so as price goes up a lot sell, hence the range trading. Looking at the valuation multiples it's rich for a professional services business with a relatively low yield. However 1) it has shown good growth / profit resilience through cycles with ability to use M&A well and 2) this offers negative beta (albeit not in the short term!) so massively helpful for AIM IHT portfolio diversification within a buy and hold portfolio. Buy on the dips and top slice at the top of the range. Everyone else is! And if it doesn't range top, it's a solid hold.

[this_is_me] 24/5/2023 20:42

hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-totally-begbies-and-wincanton/?mc_cid=06f14fb0f9

Begbies Traynor Group (LON:BEG) – Guiding Higher
Well, it is good to know that someone is enjoying the current economic environment.

And this business recovery, financial advisory and property services consultancy group is certainly doing just that.

Earlier this week the company’s Pre-Close Trading Update guided the market that its trading year to end April 2023 was going to show better than expectation results.

It led investors to expect double-digit growth over the previous year, with revenues of at least 11% higher at £122m and a 16% improvement in adjusted pre-tax profits to some £20.7m.

Analysts Vivek Raja and Jamie Murray at Shore Capital Markets note that the guidance was 2% better than consensus hopes.

They have revenues estimated for the current year to end April 2024 of £129.3m, with profits of £22.5m, worth 10.6p in earnings and more than double covering an estimated 4.0p dividend per share.

For 2025 they see £136.9m sales, £24.4m profits, 11.3p earnings and a 4.2p dividend.

The shares, which have been up to 156p in the last year, closed last night at 131.5p, which is about right based on recent statements.

The full 2023 results should be published on 11th July, which may then give more confidence to the upward hopes for the £203m group’s shares.

(Profile 24.11.19 @ 85p set a Target Price at 110p*)

(Profile 21.04.20 @ 93p set a Target Price at 110p*)

[johndoe23] 24/5/2023 10:21

Surprised to see drop back, I know markets are suffering today, but..

[steadyaway1] 23/5/2023 14:48

Marginal upgrade, whilst admin levels are still below pre pandemic...

[topvest] 22/5/2023 19:16

Only a marginal upgrade but good news all the same. They continues to deliver.

[aleman] 22/5/2023 14:38

This is the USA - but I think we are not far behind. And there are further rate rises to be digested that have happened during this period.



S&P Global Market Intelligence recorded 54 corporate bankruptcy petitions in April, a drop from 70 in March. Those fresh filings have pushed the year-to-date count to 236, more than double the comparable figure a year ago and higher than any of the prior 12 years.

[the bolton wanderer] 22/5/2023 10:30

I bought some last week and I'll get some more later this week especially if the price stays this low.
Happy to increase my holding as I fully expect to see £1.50 later this year.

[suetballs] 22/5/2023 10:13

Yes disappointing.
If the share price won't rise in the current climate - that's not great.
Looks like we could do with a takeover.
Suet

[shallwe] 22/5/2023 09:46

Usual thing with this company, great trading update, share price goes down!Hopefully just a little shake, but it is a little longer than wanted :-(

[edmonda] 22/5/2023 06:58

Yes - trading update from BEG anticipates FY'23 nicely ahead of Equity Development forecasts: revs seen 11% ahead and adj. PBT +16%.
Outlook for growth is confident which underpins ED's retained 175p / share fair value.

You can read/hear new note here:

[this_is_me] 22/5/2023 06:31

Things are going well.
"Results expected to be ahead of market expectations* which represents double digit growth on the prior year"

[the bolton wanderer] 21/5/2023 09:14

Hopefully we will see a decent trading update in the next couple of days.

[steadyaway1] 15/5/2023 10:26

19 May last yr

[the bolton wanderer] 15/5/2023 10:12

Am I right in saying we are due a trading update in the next week or so?