Begbies Traynor Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 13/7/2023 11:58

The economy seems to be deteriorating more rapidly now.

Today’s Bank of England credit conditions survey shows that a net balance of 30.9% of lenders said the default rate on secured loans to households had risen in the last three months. That’s the highest reading since the second quarter of 2009.

[tomps2] 12/7/2023 09:15

Begbies Traynor Group (BEG) Full Year 2023 Results presentation - July 23

Begbies Traynor Executive Chairman, Ric Traynor and Group Finance Director Nick Taylor present final results for the year ended 30 April 2023.

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[topvest] 11/7/2023 13:38

Well I sold out my final half-size holding first thing. 3-bagged before dividends, so its been a good share for me. Ric Traynor has done very well.

I'm not happy with the deemed remuneration - adjusting it back overstates underlying profits. P/E is very high if you adjust part or all of this back given it was £12.3m in 2023 and £10m in 2022.

Anyway, its a good company...well the insolvency segment is, but for me the valuation is too rich even given good prospects. They pay out most of the cashflow in dividends and that is less than 4p so a valuation above a £1 looks stretched in my view.

[chessmaster10] 11/7/2023 12:48

Tricky one.

Some interesting comments on Stockopedia, basically stating that the accounting practices are not illegitimate, but do massage the numbers to some extent, and mean that in real terms the share price reflects pretty much the current value of the business.

So how do we break upwards and above that long term 150p threshold?

Hopefully the management presentation will go down well, and with interest rates looking like they'll keep rising, the next 12 months+ should see increased business for Begbies - as long as they don't dilute too much or over-compensate the management.

There's no reason for the share price to collapse, but no reason for it to take-off either.

We may be range-bound for a while.

[lefrene] 11/7/2023 09:12

Seems a classic 'sell the news' reaction. But one to hold, a sound business with a strategy, and a liklihood of more business failures ahead as the current recession picks up pace.

[the bolton wanderer] 11/7/2023 08:22

Yes the analysts are probably saying 'only a 9% dividend rise...we wanted 10%'
Good results again and I keep buying little chunks which I will do up to £1.50.

[rob762243] 11/7/2023 08:14

Was not expecting it to be down on opening

[edmonda] 11/7/2023 07:52

Agreed

FY23 results show ongoing track record of performance across the economic cycle. Revs rose 11% and the dividend 9%, rising for 6 consecutive years. With a confident outlook ED keep a 175p/share fair value.

Read & hear new note from Equity Dev below + you can register for the BEG webinar on 19/7 there too:

[this_is_me] 11/7/2023 07:27

Revenue up, profit up, earnings up, dividend up, outlook "confident of a further year of growth". Looks good.

[gswredland] 07/7/2023 09:19

Probably start to -results this Tuesday

[johndoe23] 07/7/2023 09:13

You would have thought with all the doom and gloom this would be moving on up, but not really the case. Why?

[aleman] 21/6/2023 16:21

Did we have this already? I can't see it on the thread. Things look to be going downhill rapidly. Lots of people I know with small consumer facing businesses are already worried by intermittent weak trade that started around March and is now up and down with weather. It's eating into their profits and one or two are no longer making any. They are even more worried now by the recent ratcheting up of interest rate expectations.

h ttps://www.credit-connect.co.uk/news/business-insolvencies-jumped-40-in-may/

Latest figures from the Insolvency Service have shown that the number of business insolvencies in England & Wales for May 2023 was 2,552, 40% higher than in the same month in the previous year (1,825 in May 2022). The figures were at higher than levels seen while the Government support measures were in place in response to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic and also higher than pre-pandemic numbers.

[johndoe23] 21/6/2023 16:13

Needs to break 145p resistance first target

[chessmaster10] 21/6/2023 15:56

I'm looking at 180p-200p within this year.

It can be argued that the company is fully valued at 150p based on current metrics, but the company has made acquisistions and the economic outlook for the next 6-12months is quite bleak. There will be more rate hikes, and businesses will suffer as a result.

If you look a monthly chart, 200p has been the historic resistance, so I'm betting that we get a re-test of that level.

This isn't a 'hold forever' company, its cyclical, but I think its cycle peak is still to come. I'm looking for a run up to 200p, then either to fall back or consolidate before a push over to 220p-ish.

All dependent on the team delivering, without significant dilution or similar.

[rob762243] 20/6/2023 13:23

Only a matter of time with all the current news for this to start to rise, what would people say is a fair valuation?

[aeonflux] 16/6/2023 11:15

Corporate insolvencies jump 40% in England and WalesValentina Romei in LondonCorporate insolvencies jumped by 40 per cent in the year to May in England and Wales, as businesses struggled with rising costs and a slowing economy.Data published by the Insolvency Service on Friday showed that the number of registered company insolvencies reached 2,552 last month. That is up from 1,825 in the same month of 2022 and nearly double the figure in May 2019.David Hudson, restructuring advisory partner at FRP, said that conditions were "incredibly challenging" for businesses, with "borrowing costs and elevated input prices - particularly from payroll - squeezing margins."

[amanitaangelicus] 13/6/2023 06:29

North East eg Stockton, North Tyneside big increase in insolvencies yr on yr. The rest of the NE will be suffering too no doubt. Begs undervalued but its their buying up of other firms, in some ways, limits faster share price progress.

[2vdm] 06/6/2023 07:40

Got me puzzled too Rob. Fundamentals look good and no lack of business going fwd.

[rob762243] 02/6/2023 11:12

I'm really puzzled by this, it seems like after q3 update they are still in line to hit a PBT of around 20mill. I think you can assume then they have already hit 15mill. But with those financials and a market cap of 180mill you'd get a around 10% yield for this company! Why is it so cheap?!

[edmonda] 02/6/2023 10:50

A new note today from Equity Dev adds FY24e forecasts, which of course exclude the potential for more earning enhancing acquisitions.
With a recent positive TU from BEG, ED's fair value stays at 175p/share.

Read it here:

[bigdogawoof] 26/5/2023 18:37

Realise this is the US but many of the market dynamics are the same as UK:-More of the article: The bankruptcies come after years of quiescent markets and rising valuations allowed even financially stressed firms to raise debt and equity capital to stay afloat. Debt default rates had fallen to about 1 per cent in 2021 as central banks pumped money into the coronavirus pandemic-stressed economy. Now, S&P Global forecasts that the 12-month trailing default rate for speculative-grade securities will jump from the current 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent by early 2024. Yields on junk bonds have more than doubled from less than 4 per cent in mid-2021, as measured by the BofA US High Yield Index, an indication of how much more expensive capital has become for less creditworthy borrowers. The Federal Reserve has warned that lenders could further contract the supply of credit to businesses after recent turmoil in the banking sector."Our general view is that we are going to see an increase in 'hard restructurings', driven by the combination of higher debt levels from the borrowing binge of Covid and rising interest rates. The triggers will be running out money and inability to refinance maturing debt," said Bill Derrough, an investment banker at Moelis who advises clients across distressed situations. "Some companies have used every trick in the book and now have run out of tricks."