Batm Advanced Communicat... Share Discussion Threads

[fse] 08/12/2022 14:46

That’s an extremely decent update and LM. Comments above say it all. Post 22141 finally some intelligent remarks.
For an R&D company turning the corner in what the late queen described as an Annus Horribulus is damned impressive.
Companies across the board had a simply devastating year and we knew it was going to be a struggle.

All 3 indicators I was watching for are on course

Edgility is right on track and TElco Systems look set to achieve a decent piece of the pie.
Non covid diagnostic sales now feature well in the product mix. If anyone recalls this was an indicator that had significant weight to it.
Cyber has performed well.

The company has made significant progress with no dilution to shareholders is profitable and has adequate cash reserves.

[74tom] 08/12/2022 13:38

It's hard to come to any conclusion other than BATM is heading for a long period in the wilderness. Very few investors will touch this with a bargepole after the events of the last 12 months, first up it was the FTSE nationality review debacle, which has now been followed by a 30% sell off leading up to a profit warning. And before anyone claims that 'growth' stocks have been hammered of late, BATM's fellow LSE listed Israeli peer MWE is up 22% over the last month and many other UK small caps have also bounced back from October lows.

Post the last major share spike back in 2009/10 which saw a double top at 60p, BATM spent nearly 6 years stuck in a trading range at 12-20p, I see the same thing happening again. There is enough here for the uninitiated to feel like they have found a bargain, however there will always be stale bulls losing patience offsetting any buying.

This is a dog and good luck to anyone that believes next years forecasts.

[resistance1] 08/12/2022 12:48

Kooba you are right to put forward searching questions and probe deeper. However in the wider market where many 'growth' stocks have reported alarming cash burns, this share is comparatively sitting pretty. The markets they operate in are predicted to have remarkable compound growth and they have the products lined up. Have they been the best at marketing in the past? The answer is no, as your reflection on the fact they didn't the most of the PCR testing opportunity. 2023 must surely be the year where they get their marketing act together. If they do forecasts could be widely conservative... the opposite it turns out of this year.

[kooba] 08/12/2022 12:48

While you are there though zip your post from a few days ago"Exchange differences on translating foreign ( 6,666operations ) (2,195)This is extracted from the H1 accounts.I expect this to largely reverse in H2"Any idea why the positive currency move does not seem to be helping? Cash is still depleting in the second half even though the dollar translation should be a real positive..they don't even mention currency or was that just an excuse for first half miss?

[kooba] 08/12/2022 12:34

The real bonus the company got from covid was supplying respirators that it had never done before the actual contracts in diagnostic testing were quite disappointing considering it was their existing field they should have had a significant head start but got little as far as i can see.Agree the build up of non covid reliance is encouraging but hopefully there will be more colour on the nature of the customers and the contracts forming double digit Ms in revenues in due course.This whole thing does question their interpretation of a large order backlog.

[zipstuck] 08/12/2022 12:31

Kooba - I guess you no longer hold stock

[resistance1] 08/12/2022 11:53

That was the nature of the whole Covid order scenario. A bonus but difficult to plan against. The important question is has the company used the time and the bonus revenues of the period well. More interesting for me is the growth of the non Covid tests which has gone from zero before the pandemic to something very substantial. This is where the future is and where our focus as longer term shareholders should be.

[kooba] 08/12/2022 11:08

It also shows the company is very reliant on one customer..whether this is a repeat customer we do not know but certainly was critical to the company's strong forward order book..that wasn't an order book!!

[kooba] 08/12/2022 11:06

But the "transparency" in the order process the company cites does not lend to the fact they don't need any kits yet..BATM's take must have been that the order would be made and all delivered in this half year for it to be fully booked into this years results , that was never going to be achieved from early October at the latest would be my guess.But they only realised this on Dec 8th !

[resistance1] 08/12/2022 10:53

Presumably Covid tests required for the winter period, subject to existing customer stockpile levels. Company wouldn’t hold a stock ready but would produce upon receipt of signed order. If the order came in tomorrow it would take a while to produce. My take on this is the customer hasn’t ordered as yet as they have sufficient stock, but will do at some stage soon.

[kooba] 08/12/2022 10:43

Just looking at it , this one contract would have represented about half of the company's second half diagnostic revenues..to one south East Asian customer...nothing like eggs in baskets, especially when you don't even have the basket yet.I don't see how that could ever have been booked into this years numbers..how could they deliver a $25m contract in a month or so unless they are sitting on huge inventory. They were never going to make those numbers for months..people close knew it and the company kept schtum.

[zipstuck] 08/12/2022 10:41

I think thats in the price.

21p is good value without.

Fill your boots

[kooba] 08/12/2022 10:13

Could see some short covering by those who have been knocking the stock out over the past week or so..easy money for the well informed.Snippet from the house note end August following the interim miss.."Supported by a significant order backlog, with continuing positive news flow on technology development and commercialisation, BATM is maintaining its confident long-term outlook on progress and is retaining its FY guidance. "One wonders why they are considered jam tomorrow..they included revenues from a huge contract not in the bag..and still not in the bag. One presumes if they don't get it then 2023 is now at risk ?

[kooba] 08/12/2022 09:55

So the $25m miss this year goes into next year but the rev for next year is the same as previous expectation..righto. Next year should be up by $25m surely..but no.Some double counting going on there.If you believe the company and their brokers forward guidance after half year and full year misses then you have more faith in their forward looking statements than i.Least they have opened why the shares have cratered recently..shame they didnt as soon as it leaked they would have a big miss.

[echoridge] 08/12/2022 09:45

'.....Overall, we retain our FY23F revenues at the c.$168m level. For EBITDA, we nudge downwards our FY23F estimate by $1.8m to $23m to reflect caution on costs and the uncertainties discussed above....' Funny how you seemed to have left that part - much more important for the share price going forward in my view - out.

[kooba] 08/12/2022 09:36

...FY22F revenues are now expected at the $120m level (previously $147m)....we reduce our Group EBITDA expectation from $17.1m to $7.1m (down 58%). All good..nothing to see here.Agree with poster on the other board..the company was highly confident on order book to meet this years numbers..a very large part of that expectation was not in the bag...and still isn't.It makes their forecasts look highly over optimistic and hugely material to the full year.The fact the shares have rerated downwards ahead of this update is a disgrace..the company say there was good visibility on the contract..they only know now its not going to be awarded this year?? Bllx...the market knew weeks ago !

[kooba] 08/12/2022 09:28

The div was $5m the ADOR investment was $4m ..the buyback $200k all acknowledged in first half they then lost money on holding currency outside the $ ..this is now largely reversed which goes no where in explaining a further $7m drop on cash since the half year. The currency position should have reversed in company's favour but they are losing over $1m a month in cash.

[paulisi] 08/12/2022 09:23

Cash revenues may be down partly due to ADOR investment, dividend payment etc , but cash flow should start to increase with edgility revenues coming on board.We still have cement company contract to finalise via edgility, although it has gone very quiet on the POC for the ADOR business.

[car1pet] 08/12/2022 09:23

The medical order not closing in December seems to have quite significant impact on full year numbers. The issue for a small company is that one large order not happening is significant. The question is will it happen. But this shows the poor senior management in action. If there is a large order forecast towards the end of the year don't include it in this years forecast. If it happens the numbers are better than expected. But by building it in to the forecast and then it not happening results in a hit to the numbers. Marom doesn't understand the basics of business management.

[kooba] 08/12/2022 09:12

The cash is down by $27m this year..the whole contract value that they have not actually been awarded is $25m..likely cash from that with decent margin $8m or so. $27m out $8m in Nov=t going to get the coffers up that soon!

[gbenson1] 08/12/2022 09:01

Right old tug of war going on with the share trades, mms trying to tyce people in -beware!!

[kooba] 08/12/2022 08:57

Nice that the profit warning was already discounted by the market before it came out !! The price and volume activity of the past week or so is blatantly insider trading. The company has only come clean because of the price reaction ..all three wrong way round !!!