Barr (a.g.) Share Discussion Threads

[wiganpunter] 24/10/2022 15:57

Hello i know the MOMA brand well and would offer the following thoughts. Oat milk offers you exposure to fast growing health brand, vegan , and is more environmentally green . its also now cheaper than milk. the porridge , granola and bircher muesli are excellent and in most large supermarkets. id definitely use the barista in coffee and semi in tea .my point being its a great brand in a huge expansive market and the breakfast items are really good too. if you get a 3-5% market share and thats going to take you comfortably into funkin numbers with ag Barrs distribution and marketing power. ex that AG Barr has been dislocated with lots of other midcaps . ex cash of 61m it trades on about 10-12x earnings versus a sector on 18-22. what I would suggest is that it like many other uk well run companies becomes a private equity target or someone like britvic, C&C or a bigger brewer that wants more soft drink access - why ? good diverse brands, well established ( 109 years ), low pricing points across the range , disciplined capital allocation , 15.6% margin ( even with inflation ) and as you look at disinflation in packaging , aluminium , fuel etc like many other staple companies those headwinds become tailwinds really quickly. It suffers I think from being overowned by lindsell train and rathbones so you get selling when they need to reallocate and there isn't a great deal of liquidity. there are 2 new non execs both with excellent experience too especially Zoe Howorth. in a world where businesses that have good free cashflow which they have are trading very cheaply with tailwinds coming I think they are back above 500 quickly and potentially on interest lists for the inevitable consolidation . other names for me on that list would be melrose, ibstock and kingfisher .

[philanderer] 22/10/2022 00:33

EI , strangely enough my three worst performing shares this week have all been drink related... BVIC, BAG and DGE

[essentialinvestor] 21/10/2022 14:45

Goodness, getting ugly.

[essentialinvestor] 18/10/2022 16:18

Phil, average PE over the last 5 years above 20, significantly kower
now, however we are in post ZIRP. Very high multiples on stocks like BAG
may not be seen again for sometime.

Net cash, some great brands, particularly IB.

[philanderer] 18/10/2022 15:38

EI, they may have finished ;-)

[essentialinvestor] 18/10/2022 14:58

Hi Phil, appreciate the heads up, will hold off then.

[philanderer] 18/10/2022 14:56

Afternoon EI, big seller(s) about.. 560k printed so far today.

[essentialinvestor] 18/10/2022 14:07

Any current views here folks?.

[essentialinvestor] 13/10/2022 17:46

Tried some oat milk, Oatly, found it horrendous in tea. (may be just me) . Appreciate plant based is gaining momentum but the area looks fiercely competitive and tbf I cannot see the commercial logic, apart from existing distribution and manufacturing capacity, but does not look a money spinner to me. More like an expensive hype train sector. Perhaps I'm being too cautious.

[philanderer] 12/10/2022 14:39

Berenberg cuts AG Barr price target to 610 (650) pence - 'buy'

[spectoacc] 10/10/2022 16:56

Only got around to reading the IC comment on it today, they were pretty optimistic, but had concerns about the 3p Scottish tax on it. Minor point tho.

[philanderer] 10/10/2022 16:49

Stinking the place out today.

New two year low, chart support looks to be 379p

[philanderer] 05/10/2022 19:05

xd in the morning for the 2.5p dividend

[giltedge1] 05/10/2022 09:34

I think if you read carefully 1 in 3 drinks plant based drinks ie soya, oats etc. If you analyse the results a storming performance, Funkin earns £17M a year now (gross), I checked purchase price paid £25M for whole business a few years back, so soon earning 100% return on price paid per year. Moma paid £6M already earning £ 1M in six months & growing strongly, so better than cash in bank. speaking of I calculate will have £80M in Bank at year end, if you deduct cash from Market Cap, business valued at £450M earns £50M a year & growing. A broker recently said buy to £6.80 so at this level great buying, for a secure strong branded business. I have added £4.60.

[makinbuks] 03/10/2022 15:22

I find that Oat Milk stat hard to believe. Every third person you pass in the street drinks it? Really?

Carbon dioxide is a real issue and BEIS would do well to come up with a strategy to make the UK self sufficient/secure

[philanderer] 03/10/2022 00:16

Carbon dioxide price surge threatens £1.7bn extra cost for UK groceries

[essentialinvestor] 30/9/2022 15:43

Thanks Phil, hopefully more successful than the mineral water business bought a few
year back.

[philanderer] 30/9/2022 15:39

Afternoon EI, the only mention was this..

Oat milk : Across the UK grocery market, oat milk is growing 16% year on year, with one in three British consumers now drinking plant based milk.

(Source: Kantar May 22, Nielsen 52 w/e July 2022, Mintel Sept 2021)

[essentialinvestor] 30/9/2022 14:03

In for a small amount. Any update of their oat milk buy?,
was sceptical on that as mentioned at the time.

[ntv] 30/9/2022 08:41

Sold the bulk of mine for about £1.6k loss
A bit disappointed in them not pushing price increases through on cheaper products
Maybe they are due soon who knows

[philanderer] 29/9/2022 14:04

Investors Chronicle:

Impressive half for AG Barr

Buy

[philanderer] 28/9/2022 10:00

Liberum cuts AG Barr to 'hold' (buy) - price target 525 (655) pence

[philanderer] 28/9/2022 09:53

For some reason a pile of junk this morning.

[philanderer] 27/9/2022 10:57

Happy to hold on that release.