Barclays Share Discussion Threads

[maximillian1] 15/8/2011 13:29

Do not worry ..could still fall hard this pm 192-25 =167..possible..I do not now thats for sure..any were here is a good buy in my opinion..as usual soon see....struggling at the moment thou..

[grahamite2] 15/8/2011 13:27

But I did right to wait - if I have done right buying at all. 179.05

[grahamite2] 15/8/2011 13:25

The same thought went through my mind as I sat there with the open trading window, Max. It's psychological I suppose - I have robbed myself of so and so much by my own indecisiveness!

[clodpool] 15/8/2011 13:23

Well done Maximillian, I decided to get a few more at 179.6 because if it's anything like the last few days it'll be up 10p from there at least once in the next 24 hours.

[maximillian1] 15/8/2011 13:22

Grahmite

A few minutes ago..it was 178...and it it is only 179.6 to buy now...how much are you betting a 100k a point...lol

[maximillian1] 15/8/2011 13:20

Just bought in @179 and well worth waiting for..only want 276.5 now to make my week..lol

[hippo] 15/8/2011 13:17

Monty - give me your email address. Don't need balls mate, anyone can see that this is heading one direction.

[grahamite2] 15/8/2011 13:16

Banks looking good in the New York premarket, annoyed I missed a good buying entry a few minutes ago.

[montyhedge] 15/8/2011 13:13

Hippo, look your not short no balls to back your coviction, your just trying to buy as low as possible, of course nothing wrong with that. If the Dow perks up later, Barc will finish in the blue. Lets wait and see.

[hippo] 15/8/2011 13:10

Monty - today of course - why aren't you, problem is it has no support, so could see 1.50's again this week, then I'll maybe long again, in profit, and I will close as soon as it turns.

[smurfy2001] 15/8/2011 13:07

BE
Returning to the top ......
BE
Barclays .....
BE
Guessing this is on the ringfencing stories over the weekend.
NH
it is
NH
the ICB to go ahead with the ring fence
NH
Barclays
NH
on account of BarCap
NH
the most affected by this
NH
and Barclays I wonder venture
NH
used the Sunday papers to put across its side of the case
NH
that if you ring fence
NH
we won't be able to lend
NH
we will never make any money
NH
and the economy will stagnate
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I para-phrase
NH
but that was the jist of it
NH
and as evidence a UBS note
NH
from last week was cited
BE
You got that to hand?
NH
I have
NH
it's by Alastair Ryan
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and John-Paul Crutchley
NH
they say
NH
gold plating regulation
NH
is killing the banks
NH
killing them
NH
We believe that the regulatory agenda explains the majority of the decline and
the low starting point. With press reports regarding the upcoming Independent
Commission on Banking's final report on 12 September and its 'ring-fencing'
proposals, the ongoing anti-bank rhetoric from the Bank of England, and FSA
'gold plating' of liquidity requirements, the UK banks shares are now
discounting a permanently hostile environment for bank shareholders, in our
view.
NH
so forget the Eurozone debt crisis
NH
the real reason for the fall is regulation
BE
"a permanently hostile environment for bank shareholders"
BE
Not sure that's the way the general public see it.
NH
Uncertainty and tougher rules mean declining lending
NH
What is clearly happening in the meantime is that banks are not lending. In spite
of a demonstrable and ongoing access to funding markets in difficult times, their
lending is anaemic or worse. Chart 3 shows the continued decline in corporate
lending, which is most unusual this long after the bottom of a recession and with
banks' UK impairments down 75% or more from their peaks. Chart 4 shows the
picture for lending as a whole; Chart 5 shows M3 growth, which the Bank of
England used to consider to be one key indicator of inflationary pressures in the
economy and therefore one driver of how monetary policy ought to be calibrated.
NH
Life with a ring-fence
If the ICB recommends a ring-fence and the government accepts the proposal,
there will be known costs to the banks for introducing the restrictions. These will
be elevated by the likelihood of lost revenues as business moves to non-UK
competitors. However, there could also be a significant challenge to avoid procyclical
outcomes.
NH
More dependence on less stable deposits
For example, let's say bank A is ring-fenced. A UK corporate has the choice
whether to deposit with Bank A's 'Inside' the ring-fence entity or its 'Outside'
entity. With 'Outside' likely to be offering a somewhat higher deposit rate and
likely having capital ratios higher than the 'Inside' entity, in normal times the
corporate will typically choose to hold its deposit with 'Outside'. However, in
times of sudden stress, risk aversion rises and the tendency will be for the
corporate to shift all its balances to 'Inside'.
On example of how quickly corporate deposits can leave is Ireland's experience
in 2009 and 2010. In the six worst months for deposit outflows (shown in Chart
9), during which total withdrawals were over €110 billion, or almost 80% of
GDP, close to 90% of what left the system was corporate or other debt capital
market funding.
NH
it goes on
NH
painting a very dark picture
NH
of what will happen if there's ring fence
NH
now
NH
on top of all that
NH
there's a political spat brewing over this
NH

NH
George Osborne and Vince Cable are set to clash over the Vickers' report into banking reform, as the chancellor and the business secretary debate the timetable for bringing into force the ringfencing of Britain's retail banking operations.
Advisers close to Mr Cable said the business secretary would not accept any delay in bank reform after it was revealed in the Financial Times last week that Mr Osborne was considering a plan to endorse strict ringfencing while giving banks a long timeframe – probably until 2019 – to implement the rules.
NH
so the Chancellor
NH
wants to approve it
NH
but kick it down the road
NH
Vince
NH
who has emerged from under his BSkYB stone
NH
wants it now
BE
Hm.
BE
On a more mundane, less structural level
BE
Collins Stewart has pushed through a few downgrades on Barclays this morning
BE
Cutting estimates average 6% over 2011e-2013e, front-end loaded
BE
The uncertainty caused by the US debt downgrade and the broader recent
market turmoil prompt our 2011e estimate revisions, while the more subdued
economic outlook lies behind our 2012e-13e revisions. We were below
consensus before, and remain (almost 10%) below consensus in 2011e.
NH
(@goldylocks – coz most of them have terrible operation records. Lots of gold in the ground but they never meet production targets. Centamin, African Barrick)
BE
And, needless to say ....
BE
BarCap to remain dominant in a rebalancing divisional contribution
BE
Barclays Capital should see its contribution to pretax income ease from
more than half in 2011e to just above two-fifths in 2013e, as other divisions
recover. BarCap's Q2 results were competitive but lagged the average of its
global peer group. Q3 industry volumes are running down year/year in
origination and mixed in advisory. Trading volumes are erratically up from a
weak June, but facilitation costs are high, inventory marks often negative.
BE
Rolling staff cuts in CIB, broader cuts likely over medium term
BE
In contrast with some of its peers, Barclays has not announced a systematic
staff reduction programme in its investment banking business, relying rather
on a rolling programme of staff cuts expected to reduce group – including
BarCap – headcount by 3000 this year. While acknowledging management's
medium-term plan to weed out underperforming businesses, we think
near-term cuts may need to run deeper.
BE
But ............
BE
Already in the price, apparently.
BE
We cut our target price to £3.10 from £3.50. The shares trade on our revised
forecasts at 7.5 (5.7 adjusted) and 4.5 times diluted earnings in 2011e and
2012e, 0.45 times 2011e tangible SHF, and offer a 3.3% yield
BE
Euro-rim exposures: manageable if backdrop stabilises
BE
Barclays has material but – as macro matters now stand – manageable net
sovereign FVA exposures to Italy and Spain. It also has substantial residential
mortgage exposures to these markets, of £15.5b and £16.5b net of
reserves, respectively. These are seasoned books with respective LTVs of
46% and 58%. In such volatile times, these exposures all bear watching.

[hippo] 15/8/2011 13:07

Carl79 - sentiment

[carl79] 15/8/2011 13:06

Although I am used to seeing this red, what is today's reason?

edit - i should say, reason to be redder than other banks...

[montyhedge] 15/8/2011 13:04

You must be short then Hippo, good luck.

[hippo] 15/8/2011 12:58

Come on baby, come to daddy - Smurfy - you've gone quiet, hiding under the table, won't help pmsl.

[hippo] 15/8/2011 12:51

hippo - 15 Aug'11 - 11:43 - 70124 of 70145 edit


Yes Friday's gain will shortly be eroded, I don't think the footsie will hold either, so 8% down today at close. imho.

money, money, money in a rich mans world........ lol

[hippo] 15/8/2011 12:49

Of course you would all agree, your seeing your investment disapear and you want to blame me - How can someone called Smurfy, tell me to grow balls lol.

I bet the share goes down, you bet it goes up - what's the problem - yes, of course, I'm right of course - I'm making money.............

[montyhedge] 15/8/2011 12:44

Agree, smurfy.

[clodpool] 15/8/2011 12:44

Well said Smurfy

[smurfy2001] 15/8/2011 12:41

hippo,

You act like a women.

Grow a pair of balls and calm down.

Apologies to all, l don't normally write such posts but people like this invite a good slapping.

[newm0del4rmy] 15/8/2011 12:40

Of course fundamentals come through, but I thought you were a trader and not a long term holder?

[hippo] 15/8/2011 12:39

You spoke to soon lol. It's not a bear attack, just people coming to their senses, lost enough already !!!!

[montyhedge] 15/8/2011 12:05

Monday morning bear attack fizzling out, we will finish higher today.