Bango Share Discussion Threads

[trainspotter2] 25/2/2016 12:08

It may look like a screaming short but short this one at your peril.

Be warned !!!

[hybrasil] 25/2/2016 10:03

Is this co not a screaming short? Turnover of £5m despite its long existence

[lentjes] 16/2/2016 17:32

Interesting

hxxp://news.bango.com/2016/02/16/bango-boosts-japanese-operations-with-new-office-and-senior-executive-hire/

[lentjes] 16/2/2016 11:18

At last a new activation, only 2.3m customers but they all help

hxxps://blog.bango.com/2016/02/16/bango-expands-app-store-carrier-billing-across-middle-east-region/

[lentjes] 12/2/2016 18:37

Has anybody tried to contact BANGO to find out whats going on with all the scheduled activations.

Mary Celeste springs to mind

[lentjes] 02/2/2016 07:54

In trying to understand the reasoning behind the deadly silence / delay on new activations and putting the normal commercial & technical issues to one side there is the possibility that there is an offer from one of the big boys on the table to take out the company and the recent placing would put them in a strong negotiating position. At a market cap of just GBP 46m this would be a snip for any of the big boys whether it be a Visa, master card to get into DCB or one of the big App companies to take the payment collection in house and whilst there was a possibility that the company could be taken over and depending on who then I would suspect that all activations would be on hold.

I would point out in relation to the market cap that as the II's have an average investment of approx 90 pence I'm sure they would not let BANGO go for anything less than 150 - 200% return on their investment which would value BANGO at circ GBP140 - 180m although as Boku could have been purchased for $250m in 2010 this would still be a snip in the modern day world of DCB

I have not one shred of evidence to support the above but something must be causing the delay which BANGO are not prepared to share with the market.

[lentjes] 01/2/2016 12:03

fitton

totally agree with your over view although at some point the II's need to report to their share holders / investors and they would be pretty miffed at a 30% hit in such a short period even if long.

The one question I would ask is if BANGO have cut the margin to protect business why are we not seeing this reflected in new activations. BANGO have for the last year stated they have up to 40 activations planned and even stronger pipeline of opportunities but nothing has materialized for the past 6 months.

[fitton] 01/2/2016 10:53

What's happening here is very annoying for small investors but easy
to explain.The management have realised they need to be one step
ahead of the game against any potential competition.They have chosen to
Cut the margin on the analytics side of the business to protect there market.
This is a long term tactic making it very difficult for any potential
Competitor to enter that side of the business.The share price is another
matter.Today there are sales so far of 17k of shares knocking over £4m of the
Value of the company.The market is fairly thin at the best of times
in Bango shares so the market makers mark down until they find buyers.
The largest proportion of the shares are held by institutions that
are long term investors.Institutions that purchased recently at £1 will
have been given a detailed long term projection.The company needs long
term institutional investors not short term private investors.In the general
Scheme of things nothing has changed apart from a
a £200k adjustment.This adjustment has caused concern with
Private investors and even though there has probably only
Been sales of maybe 200k of shares,the share price has fallen
by a disproportionate 35 per cent or so.Long term is the answer
here.

[lentjes] 01/2/2016 10:23

With only 215K shares traded since the trading update 21st Jan ( which to be honest achieved what they set out to do for the year providing operating cost's have not jumped)this is hardly a sign that the II's are heading for the exit and more likely some PI's giving up and with no buyers in the market due to lack of news on activations this is hitting the share price hard. Due to the limited number of shares on the open market I'm sure if anybody hit the buy button for 20k, 30k, or 50k worth of shares we would be back in the high 90s if not higher. However, until such time as BANGO give anybody a reason to buy we can expect further falls on relatively small volume.

With only 1 activation since 25th June last year I cant help but think something is going on behind the scenes to which I'm sure the II's who took part in the placing in November were made fully aware.

Also the failure to launch any Windows 10 activations in January as scheduled in the 5th January RNS is not helping and I would have thought that BANGO would have been best to have updated the market as to why this was not achieved rather than let the market deliberate over reasons why no activations took place.

[amt] 01/2/2016 09:13

Perhaps the exciting project with Amazon will be a saviour. If we don't hear about that in the results then I shall sell what little I have.

[bookbroker] 01/2/2016 09:03

Never understood this co., and the kind of revenue stream they envisaged, clearly not a game changer, always talking the talk, but struggles to walk likewise, profits are elusive and will continue to struggle to ever gain traction! Ray Anderson an optimist, but the share price tells the true story!

[amt] 01/2/2016 08:54

Looks like investors have given up on this. Can the forecasts be believed, how did they manage to raise 13m of cash, are those investors furious, so much doubt.

[lentjes] 27/1/2016 19:39

Can we expect RNS in the next 2 days or maybe the Windows 10 activation team will work over the weekend and we get the RNS Monday morning.

Maybe we will get a multi MNO activation of Windows 10 lol although I would be satisfied with Indonesia as the first one on the board.

BANGO RNS's 5th Jan 2016

Bango is working in collaboration with Microsoft and mobile operator partners globally to ensure maximum coverage for this payment method. Specific operator availability will be announced as they are launched starting in January.

PS

See we had another win for BANGO last night as Highly Commended Employer at the National Apprenticeship award. This will give the share price a boost

[lentjes] 23/1/2016 09:43

So not a good couple of days for the share price with only 130k shares traded managing to drop the share price 21% but as we all know with BANGO as most of the shares are held by II's (approx only 15 million = 23% in public hands)and the MM's playing games with the spread the share price can be volatile on any given day on good, bad or no news.I think the fact we dropped 21% so quick and it didn't trigger a mass sell off gives a good indication there is confidence with BANGO going forward.

Anyway studying the RNS the more I research I think considering all issues and providing they were not cherry picking spikes in EUS to report the June September and December EUS exit rates then I think its a job well done by Ray and the gang. The 15th March final full year EUS will be the key and as I said if they have not been cherry picking spikes this should give full year EUS in the region of GDP 48.5m give or take a couple of million.

The reasoning behind my optimism is as mentioned in the RNS in relation to the strong GBP against other currencies (which should not be underestimated ) an example given by BANGO in the September H1 update as follows

while sales in one region grew 107% in domestic currency, the growth was 74% measured in Pound Sterling (33% swing).

A typical example of this can be seen in Indonesia which is probably one of BANGO's more developed markets in which at the start of 2015 when the 100% increase in EUS was forecast the exchange rate was below 19 IDR against the GBP and by mid summer it was approx 22.5 IDR a swing of apprx 20%. Also as Indonisia is one of our more developed markets and transaction volumes high then I expect the margin to be at the lower end of the 2-5% target and then further impacted by the currency issue.

Therefore if you applied this 20% swing to EUS without the currency issue the December exit run rate for EUS would have been in the region of 80m which would have delighted the market. If you take the above example given by BANGO @33% we would be looking at a EUS December exit run rate of GBP 89m.It will be interesting to see if BANGO give a forecast for December 2016 EUS exit run rate. Any offers ?

Whilst this is all pie in the sky as the currency rate issue did occur so the results for 2015 will be what they will be the good news is that since late December the GBP has fallen against most currencies and is set to fall further and stay low throughout 2016.



Off topic I also noticed as of 31st December 2015 Odey, Lion Trust and Hargreaves have all increased their share holding since the Placement whilst Schrodder and Wellington have slightly reduced

Anyway time to get back to the cricket

[dudishes] 22/1/2016 19:21

Hoping for a few thou prior to you know what.

[dudishes] 22/1/2016 19:16

Crash from 77P - check the waffle!

No offence intended.

[amt] 22/1/2016 15:14

They have said that before but then raised was it 13m recently. If they can't reach profitability with all that cash then it's a no hoper.

[lentjes] 21/1/2016 17:05

Looks like somebody panicked or lost patience and dumped their 35k share holding which caused the sudden share price drop. Not sure why as as in my opinion BANGO had already informed the market that EUS would be no more than 67m so the only new news was the reduction in margin but does not justify a 20% drop in share price

I'm not sure what BANGO had said to the II at the placing but the expected EUS was already forecast at the time of the placing so I doubt its anything new for them although they maybe a miffed at the drop in share price today

The share selling was certainly not an II dumping shares due to the results

Patience patience Rome was not built in a day

[lentjes] 21/1/2016 09:15

amt

If they have achieved full year EUS 48.5m then taking the reduction in margin down to 1.8% and reduction in platform fees to 0.5m (as expected) and providing that the cost base has not increased then we can expect almost identical results to 2014 ( LBITDA loss 3.7m)and on the face of it no growth. However if you factor in the currency issue and therefore had maintained margin of 2.4% we could have expected to see the LBITDA loss reduced to 3.3m year on year which is positive but nowhere near what we all expected so yes I think you could summarise this as a profit warning.


As previously stated I think for what ever reason the business plan has come off the rails in Q2 last year and I think this relates to the agreement with Google (nothing since September 2nd )and this is why we had the placing at such a high level. Also in the placing they stated they wanted to get away from reliance on Google and invest in new payment methods ( also confirmed in today's strategy report under outlook) so I think either a falling out has occurred or Google have decided to go back to DIY (hope I'm wrong on this). I think also Boku working with Apple did not help growth plans.

In fact we have had no progress since September last year and I do not see the recent announcement regarding windows 10 as a game changer or in fact progress as I think this will just be already existing agreements recycled with a new product offering and not additional agreements with new MNO's in new markets which is what we need. Also can we expect the emerging markets in which we have the existing agreements to all be sat there with Windows 10 running on their devices, I think not !

I think the only thing that's keeping the share price in the 90s (just dropped into the 80s) at the moment is that if you average all the placings over the last 5 years this is the average of the majority of the II investments who hold almost all the shares.

I do think long term BANGO will get it right but patience is required and with expected cash of 12m at December 2015 we have time.

PS Lets hope they have achieved EUS 48.5m,kept their cost down and that one of the II does not loose patience and sells out otherwise we are in the sh*t

[amt] 21/1/2016 08:13

Is this a profit warning. I just wish they would tell us how it is. You have to read between the lines and it seems a bit downbeat. Where is the explosive growth that I had hoped for. They need 300m plus EUS to breakeven and that seems years away now.

[lentjes] 14/1/2016 10:24

I think a plus point is that the forecast 100% increase in EUS announced in March was based on GBP and since then as stated by BANGO the majority of currencies in emerging markets where BANGO do their business have fallen by approx 20% ( South Africa 40%)against the GBP so you if you take this into account and still achieve the 100% increase the results don't look that bad although we must keep in mind the 100% forecast was based on activations at the end of 2014 so we would have expected this to be the minimum considering the activations in H1 2015.

On the bases that H1 BANGO reported EUS GDP 18.45 million I expect full year EUS to be GBP 48.5 million.

In order to stand any chance to achieve profitability mid 2017 BANGO will need to get going with the 40 scheduled activations and the 100 qualified prospects announced in the September interim results to achieve a further 100% increase in EUS by December 2016.

[fitton] 14/1/2016 09:02

Just as a reminder this is a copy of the 15/10/2015 rns.

"Bango" or "the Company")

High growth in emerging markets

Bango plc (AIM:BGO), the mobile payments company, is pleased to announce End User Spend in emerging markets ahead of Bango's prior expectations. Entering Q4 2015, End User Spend through the Bango platform has grown to an annualised rate exceeding GBP60M (USD $92M), 98% higher than the equivalent rate 12 months earlier.
Just as a reminder this is a copy of the 15/10/2015 rns.

During 2014 and 2015, Bango launched a number of direct carrier billing connections in emerging markets for app store partners, including for the BlackBerry World and BlackBerry Messenger stores, and for the Windows Phone Store. With further billing routes activated in 2015, including the launch of direct carrier billing via Google Play in Mexico and South Africa, these new emerging markets are now materially contributing to End User Spend on app store content via the Bango platform and will be a greater contributor to 2016 performance than previously expected.

Bango is now the number one provider of carrier billing routes for global app stores, as recognised by Progressive Equity Research (Sept 2015). A copy of this report can be found at

END
I may well be wrong but the figures issued today clarify the statement made on the 15/10/15.
I guess if the company is looking at real growth they should be expecting a further 100% end user increase in 2016 to maybe £135m.

[boonkoh] 14/1/2016 08:50

Beware the run rate number issued. App and media purchases soar in past week of the the calendar year, as people get new mobile devices and start downloading apps and media. The should clarify if the EU run rate is seasonally adjusted, or just based on Dec15 or Week52

[amt] 14/1/2016 08:37

The Company should have made him aware that an update was due.