Bango Share Discussion Threads

[ic777] 15/7/2020 07:30

Think EV/EBITDA could be 11x for 2021

[ic777] 15/7/2020 07:30

Tesla has very little profits too.

[ic777] 15/7/2020 07:29

Maybe EV/EBITDA or EV/FCF...PER is often distorted.

[winthorpeiii] 15/7/2020 07:26

A P/E ratio of 11 based on EBITDA? Amt would have a pretty short career as an analyst if a fund manager was in receipt of that sort of analytical nonsense. The reality based on the progressive research forecast of stat eps of 1p it's on a 2020 prospective P/E of 152X. There is no 2021 forecast in the market as the business has such a poor quality of earnings and ALWAYS misses forecasts.

[ic777] 15/7/2020 07:26

I think 2H will show 90% or so revenue growth...this update has increased my conviction that Bango will be at least multi bagger from here....or if they get marketplace right, maybe even multi of multi of multi baggers...and I think IC will give a positive spin on the recent update.

[investographer] 15/7/2020 07:25

Herald Investment offloads 1% of Bango

[18bt] 15/7/2020 07:17

Agree with you amt - the market has misunderstood. It's not helped by the update not being very well drafted - previous ones have been quite a lot clearer. I must say I ad to read it at least twice and I know the company quite well.

[weblinkman] 15/7/2020 07:15

Hello Zanadoo - I cant see your tweet,
but I expect you are demonstrating the encouraging stability in pricing even as EUS grows rapidly. Very encouraging!

[amt] 15/7/2020 06:45

I think what analysts and the market are missing is that for full year forecast they are comparing revenue growth estimated to reach 11.7m to 9.3m for 2019 but should be comparing it to 7.1m because Audiens will be treated as a joint venture. Its a pity the analysts didn't spot that. 11.7m vs 7.1m is just over 50% growth. So if we take that as a yard stick going forward that would give about 18m turnover in 2021 and Ebitda of about 10m, then add in Audiens. Not sure what number to put on that but it looks like pe ratio for 2021 based on ebitda is going to be around 11.
If you project to 2022 then turnover is 27m and Ebitda about 19m
2023 turnover 40m and Ebitda 32m
Add on Audiens on top of that but I don't know what to expect but it certainly gives the possibility of a billion pound market cap on a pe ratio of 30 odd by 2023.
My hopes are higher than ever.

[nimrod22] 14/7/2020 17:39

I guess the company will just about manage to pay the wages if nothing else. A bit short on the promised new world of the last few years.

[alangriffbang] 14/7/2020 16:24

thank you amt IC777 thank you for your input ,I’m so long in the tooth with bango having been in here since day one it’s been a really rough ride ,I don’t think after the update it should be down and my broker downgrading them as well, feels like a double whammy ,good luck ,

[amt] 14/7/2020 15:41

Yes cash is flowing through and with say 3m in H2 they will be in a strong cash position by ye.

[ic777] 14/7/2020 15:32

Actually they started with 2.7mio cash...raised money of 3.2mio...and spent 1.8mio on NHN/Audiens...and left with 4.2mio....which means they had slight positive cash flow in 1H

[amt] 14/7/2020 15:22

Good results and if second half is met then turbo charged. I might have to upgrade my expectations. I should think H2 of say 1.3b EUS looks very impressive. So perhaps Ebitda of 3m for year and next year at least 10m so forward pe into 2021 of just 11. Previously I penciled in 9m so have upped that to 10m. The Bango model is proven so they don't have anything to prove Alan, it's there for all to see.

[ic777] 14/7/2020 15:13

Usually I am quite negative on the trading updates...this time I am actually quite positive...think 2H will surprise on the upside with probably 90% or so gross profit growth

[alangriffbang] 14/7/2020 14:09

JJC777 have just had a word with invest direct and they have downgraded it from a strong buy to hold ,and chatting to them they say they still have got an awful lot to prove ,I’m hoping Simon Thompson will put out a statement very soon ,otherwise it’s bye bye bango for the second time ,

[ic777] 14/7/2020 12:05

My estimate is 30bps EUS margin for physical goods and 80-90bps for virtual content.

[ic777] 14/7/2020 12:03

With that run rate and if marketplace starts to show exponential traction...then think we could see something like 40x or 50x (16-10) which could be some GBP 3-4

[ic777] 14/7/2020 11:44

Pretty okay set of results for me...assuming 1H gross profit of 4.6mio and 2H estimating around 7.7mio on full year cash expenses of 9.5mio....think there may be sellers now but investors focused on the 2H will start to buy in and push price higher...because a lot of recent big contracts are 2H weighted...based on forecast, I think by end Dec 2020, Bango will be at a gross profit run rate of some 15-16mio annualised with cash expense run rate if some 10mio or so.

[johndoe23] 14/7/2020 11:25

Seems like a reasoned bull and bear case to me!

[mauricemonkey] 14/7/2020 10:29

Yeah, it's almost impossible to value. I thought long and hard about whether or not to sell this morning. The bear case

Doubling EUS only adds 50% to revenues.
Just how much more room is there to expand.
If we split the difference between 1.0p and 2.4p this year's PE is 100. To get to a PE of 20 EUS probably needs to go 8x from here.

Bull case,
From now on pretty much all revenue drops straight to the bottom line.
Data analytics might mean the need to grow EUS isn't anywhere near as dramatic.
Generating cash gives opportunities for acquisitions.
Emerging markets much more likely to use DCB so the potential market could be enormous and we've barely scratched the surface.

On balance, I'm going to wait for the interims, currently have this as "hold" personally. I have no issues if anyone wants to tear me a new one and let me know where I've messed up.

[18bt] 14/7/2020 10:19

PERL note out 2020 EPS1.0p on £11.7m of revenue and £2,287m EUS. Haven't produced a 2021 forecast and I don't think anyone has.

"We make no changes to estimates following the update but believe that Bango continues to demonstrate strong momentum and that the group remains well placed to deliver its FY 20E targets."

[mauricemonkey] 14/7/2020 09:37

What's the forecast for next year? The markets look forward

[muzmanoz] 14/7/2020 09:05

The share has had a steep rise so I imagine there are quite a few profit takers. Plus who knows what will happen between now and 15 September when Interims are released.

Finncap's forecast eps for this year is 2.4p. In my view the current share price has gotten ahead of itself a little.