Avon Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 06/9/2021 11:49

Personally I am waiting for the announcement that they are "OK to Ship" on the USA body armour contract. If there is a further delay then all bets are off. An "OK to ship" and I would view that as a major restoration of confidence and with it, a change in share price direction.

[rookieswingtrader2020] 06/9/2021 11:34

According to AVON prices I see on Google: 1,791.00 GBX mid-price at 1229 BST today, which is precisely half of the closing mid-price of 3,582.00 GBX at CoB Fri 16/04/21.

[rookieswingtrader2020] 06/9/2021 11:33

According to AVON prices I see on Google: 1,791.00 GBX mid-price at 1229 BST today, which is precisely half of the closing mid-price of 3,582.00 GBX at CoB Fri 16/04/21.

[walkernbudgie] 02/9/2021 11:42

So what we all knew has been confirmed today - Avon is being exited from the FTSE 250 effective 17th(ish) of September. Does anyone know the mechanics of how tracker funds react in these cases - are they obliged to hold and therefore to continue to track the performance of all the constituents right up to the point at which they are no longer in the index or will they have been adjusting their positions accordingly in preparation?

[12toes] 02/9/2021 10:55

Warren Buffett 73 boasted about buying at 2040 after the price crashed And he calls himself Warren Buffett BWAHAHAHA You really couldn't make it up

[mayers] 31/8/2021 12:26

Thanks for that Jeffian. I remember how good the reviews were but never got round to it. When I have finished the current 3 I will!

[jeffian] 31/8/2021 09:45

The Kite Runner is an excellent book and I highly recommend it. We tend to think of Afghanistan as a backward, undeveloped place but that book gives a glimpse of how it was before the Taliban appeared.

[mayers] 31/8/2021 09:36

Very interesting Jeffian, and thank you for that. I have not read 'The Kite Runner' but I recall the reference from the reviews. I imagine they have preserved their culture much as perhaps Jews have, though of course in very different circumstances.
How interesting.

[fuji99] 31/8/2021 09:02

On the same topic: In India, the biggest "democracy" in the world, they have what they call "the intouchable" or the lowest class in the country. Most are not even allowed to go to school and most survive in the streets doing the odd jobs such as ceaning the pavements etc.

[jeffian] 28/8/2021 17:19

This is "off topic" Avon, so skip it if not interested, but as we are discussing Afghanistan, here is something I knew nothing about before and found quite interesting. It was told to me by a friendly Afghani Uber driver during a journey.

Anyone who has read 'The Kite Runner' will know that there is a minority ethnic group in Afghanistan called the Hazara. They look different (Mongolian features) and are treated very badly, only working in the most menial jobs and being discriminated against in many ways. When I mentioned them, he said "Of course, Hazara are not a 'people' at all; Hazara is the word for a Thousand". It turns out that after Genghis Khan's Mongol hordes swept across Asia, they moved on from Afghanistan but left behind a thousand men. Over the years they simply got integrated into the population, albeit always identifiable by their looks as a former invader.

Well I thought it was interesting anyway! Suit yourself.

[disc0dave45] 28/8/2021 13:39

Just checked figures again and my mistake it's 75c eps not 75p, so about 55p for FY21, that's a whopping PE of 34.Still pricey IMO with possibly more warnings to come.

[mallorca 9] 28/8/2021 04:13

Order intake in the 10 months to 31 July was $221m !
The fall is overdone.
Buy when others are fearful.

[jeffian] 27/8/2021 18:01

There was quite a lot about Avon in today's Times Market Report. The basic line is that they can't afford any more slip-ups. Besides the issues of supply-chain problems and delayed orders slowing down deliveries, they particularly pick up on the importance of the failed body-armour test. I must admit my eyebrows shot up when that announcement was first made - it's a pretty fundamental requirement of armour that it should protect you and it's hard to understand how a product was developed and submitted to the client without meeting that basic need - and the danger that analysts are pointing out is that while the other problems affect cashflow and valuation, the reputational damage to Avon from any further failures would strike at the heart of the business and undermine client confidence. Although I continue to hold, I shall be watching further announcements like a hawk (particularly as their Trading Updates since these problems arose have not been as clear and open as they could have been), ready to bale out on more bad news.

[jeffian] 27/8/2021 15:31

#968,

PUGUGLY, I'm not sure US is withdrawing from "global responsibilty", just unwinnable long-term regional conflicts. Afghanistan is tribal and has been at war since the days of the British Empire and probably long before that, with almost every major super-power (except the Chinese so far) having tried to sort it out and failing.

The question is, is the US likely to reduce the size of its army or cut down on military procurement? Never mind the troublespots of the Middle East and Africa, can you see the US allowing the fast-growing China and a resurgent Russia to go unchallenged as they seek to expand their spheres of influence? I can't see it.

[mallorca 9] 27/8/2021 14:43

Looking to double (100% gain) from here within 12 months.

[ste1984] 27/8/2021 10:57

Gone in at 1882.

[ste1984] 27/8/2021 10:36

I am also going in on this today or tomorrow

[mallorca 9] 27/8/2021 08:14

I'm now in profit and I'm expecting a strong rise next week.

[pugugly] 27/8/2021 07:54

As some 70% of sales military and some 80% of group sales in US and with America First (knife your allies in the back Biden) withdrawing from global responsibility there could be a very significant headwind for future military sales - so might well be still over-valued at current share price of 1854 (mid)

[tex101] 26/8/2021 10:46

Seems to be some confusion about the PE ratio. I say USD44mill EBITDA is reduced by USD14mill Depn & Amort, USD3.5mill Finance Costs, and USD6mill taxation to give USD20.5mill net earnings. Using 31mill shares, I get 66c/share for year ending September 21.
With cost savings coming through next year on a higher sales revenue (of USD330mill), I get after tax earnings of USD39.0mill (eps USD1.26/share) and with revenues of USD370mill for 2023, I get eps of USD1.71. Clearly, the projected 2022 & 2023 earnings/share (and the underlying revenue growth which is driving these calculations) would support some significant uplift in the current share price. BUT, the CEO got the 2021 H2 drastically wrong in his announcement three months ago and even crowed about how visible the H2 revenue streams were. How much credibility do you now want to place upon his 2022 and 2023 revenue projections? The market is right to be highly sceptical for now.

[tex101] 26/8/2021 10:15

This stock could have a lot further to fall yet! The update issued on 13th August guides towards FY21 eps of only 66c/share which is nearly 30% down on previous year and implies that the additional USD38mill of yoy revenue was accompanied by an additional USD47mill of costs – hardly indicative of a stably growing business.
The CEO would have us believe that there have simply been some unavoidable delays in delivering circa USD30mill of orders this year. If that was the whole story, next year’s revenues should benefit from those orders slipping over into FY22. But, instead of the CEO advising such (which would have increased consensus revenue guidance approaching USD390mill) a FY22 guidance revenue of between USD320-USD340mill has been offered – some USD50-70mill shy. And remember, this USD330mill revenue guidance is benefitting from that USD30mill slip over – without which revenue FY22 would only be guided at USD300mill.
At GBP20/share it is trading on a 40+ PE ratio. With the current considerable uncertainties, it surely cannot sustain that rating – a slip towards GBP15 or even lower looks inevitable. At that level, it is then likely to slip out of the FTSE250 and forced tracker selling could then plunge it lower.
I’m with pipeline1 here in believing that the rhetoric used alongside slide 12 in the half year webcast was grossly inappropriate. If the CFO had not already indicated his desire to leave AP, he would most surely now be invited to do so.
This may still be a great company but, currently, there are too many uncertainties and, absent a bid development, the share price can only be headed south. Keep well away for now. DYOR.

[jeffian] 26/8/2021 09:04

#963,

Fair enough, but remember the full effect of recent acquisitions has yet to kick in, particularly Wendy will will have almost a full year's impact.

[mallorca 9] 26/8/2021 07:53

I will actually predict a strong rise.

With all the world uncertainty this is a critical business that would not be allowed to fail. Demand will only increase as will profit margins.
Becoming more of a takeover target every day.

I'm in at this level. When it turns, the daily rises will be steep.

[disc0dave45] 25/8/2021 19:32

Yep I had 75p'ish too, a PE of 25. Wouldn't disagree with the 2022 - 2023 numbers either but it's whether more profit warnings are around the corner.Held these previously but sold as getting hot and IMO their organic growth had slowed significantly anyway. So irrespective of their current issues their growth was never sustainable at such an elevated rating.If this drops to below say £14 I might re-enter but on its current rating and the risks around further warnings then happy to simply sit on my hands and watch.All the best.