Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 16:29

Captain Swing,

My logic is reasonably simple, Bankers will make it happen, if they have sold US$400 billion worth of Dollars having moved the goldprice down and Dollar up to do so, so people longed a rising Dollar price ie bought Greenbacks, they now have a vested interest to short those same Dollars to drive price down to buy the Dollars back cheaply.

The simplest way to increase Dollar Values is long Dollar short Euro/Gold etc, and vice a versa if you want to decrease Dollar value.

In simple terms if you flood markets with M3 increasing supply by 4-4.44% in 5 months, you expect value to potentially drop by 100.00%/104.44% assuming Reserves (Gold etc) remain unaltered ie a Dollar logically at US$1.80 becomes worth say US$1.724 for example.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

BBM

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 16:08

Captain Swing

The point is that there was no long lasting effect, i.e. they fixed it. So presumably you share the worry with BB that next time (interest rise) it's financial meltdown. Maybe, maybe not, scary.


edit. I suppose I should qualify that as obviously gold is alot higher now than it was then but not for the same reasons.

[captain swing] 10/6/2004 15:54

Ohojim -- the Pollock article actually flags up TWO trillion dollar plus "fail" episodes since 911, one last summer and one just a few weeks ago in May.

A chap on motley fool gold board, who seems to know the bond trade, said he thought the "fails" would happen if there was a short squeeze or even a corner in bonds, executed by banks when the trade was short. Seemed to think it was routine but the numbers sure look big

[pecker1] 10/6/2004 15:25

BB Muppet,

Well worth reading today's Mineweb item about two in five of South Africa's goldmines operating unprofitably. Should mean significant reductions in gold supply over coming months - not a mining engineer so don't know how long it takes to open up shafts again after they have been closed.

Bullish for gold and for miners like AVM with very substantial new, low-cost ounces coming on stream during next year or so.

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 15:03

ohojim,

Is it worth seeing?

For a number of reasons I am extremely bearish on US Economy and very bullish on Gold.

Now as to whther or not the current rally on HUI/XAU is maintainable I do not know, but seems 5 down/2 up, 2 down cycle and all indicators 1 min, 5 min, 15 min and hourly all bullish on HUI and XAU

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 14:47

BB

Aye, just read it, but it relies on an "impairment" in the communications in the financial markets between the issuers the banks and the settlement system. There will always be the risk of another 911 but we have to operate on the assumption that it was a one-off, until it isn't.

Mind you, just seen "The day after tomorrow" film so maybe some extreme weather might help your bull argument.

[biswell] 10/6/2004 14:32

Guess who?



B

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 14:25

Ohojim,

Have a read of this certainly does not encourage me to sell gold!

[biswell] 10/6/2004 14:06

You will also Ashley had no come back argument re his previous OIL rise = POG rise stance.

Now OIL is falling he has shut up.

The fact that he has filtered me shows he has run out of ammunition to support his POG/OIL and bullish stance on AVM, I expect he will be selling very soon if not today and will soon come back with a different story and approach.
B

[biswell] 10/6/2004 13:59

Mmmm
Ashley is one worried dude methinks, and not without reason.

As usual Ashley misses the point, and paints with a wide brush.

US rate rise on to be announced after june 29th/30th FED meeting is not priced in at all.

Gold is falling and will keep on falling as the date comes nearer.

What will happen to gold shares when the rise is announced?

The same as will happen to the main markets themselves, a major pull-back.

The HUI is already retracing and smaller/mid cap miners are getting hit (see MINE thread) and the really usefull gold thread, Canadian stocks react quicker i.e within minutes to POG changes, in the UK it seems more like 2 to 3 days.

DO NOT HOLD GOLD SHARES IF YOU THINK THEY WILL NOT FALL IN THE EVENT OF A MARKET PULL-BACK

Because they will be toasted along with the rest

June and July normally strong for gold ho ho, well I don't see any strength, I see weakness getting weaker.

Ashley stop leading these people up the garden path will you, I know you regard them as 'Sheeple' cause you have said it before, it's not nice.
B

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 13:54

Ohojim,

Fair enough, I think quite a few people have got bored with AVM and sold over the months,I can not blame them it is not as though AVM put regular news out to keep people interested.

I think people should make this point, however in reality AVM is one of those stocks where any broker worth his stuff could easily find a client wanting to take a big position at any stage, shares are normally kept in tight trading ranges for a reason afterall.

AVM to be fair mearly reflects a goldprice range trading within 7.50% range US$370 to US$398, most charting realise from tight ranges come big moves.

I still can find no reason to be bearish gold or bearish AVM so I wait, quietly confident one day AVM will just start going up 10% a day and noone will even notice.

A quiet bull thread is a good thread normally.

Unusually I have taken the decision to filter Biswell, whose posts are bluntly pathetic and not worth reading, first person I have filtered on ADVFN for years.

I have no problem with Bears, nor humour it is constant uninformed drivel I object to.

All the best

BBM

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 13:22

Ohojim,

I thought it might be useful to revisit where we are on the goldprice.

Price has now completed a three day retracement or thirteen day since 26/05/2004, normally a turning point.

30 day chart seems to confirm interest rate rise is now priced into Dollar Price leading to back test of US$382.10/US$382.60 support.



Questions are therefore:-

Will Interest Rate Rise, as expected, less than expected, not at all?

Expectation, good for gold, below expectations good for gold, ie move priced in.

Rise in Consumer Price Index CPI, ie confirmed inflation following oil price rises?

Good for gold.

Seasonal issues into June to July?

Normally strong for gold.

It is all pretty irrelevant if you are looking for positions in months or years into December to January Indian Wedding Season or buying ahead of AVM Results in July.

Fundamentals strike me as very solid versus 8.40p forecast 2004/5 EPS at 63.00p PER Price Earnings Ratio comes in a 7.50 times not exactly demanding in view EPS Forecast to have grown 301% from 1.96p to 5.90p in 2003/4.

The surprise will be if AVM beat market expectations.

Let's see,personally more interested in Reserve and Resource numbers following US$3.50m drilling programme plus new incline at Penjom.

Needed to put a reference post to see where I was after Cartoon City arrived.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

BBM

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 13:13

Well, long term, it's going up innit.

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 13:06

Yes, my sister appears to have a vampire bat stuck to her backside, she needs help.

[biswell] 10/6/2004 13:01

But Ashley you obviously believe in Fairy tales if you are holding gold shares at the moment
B

[biswell] 10/6/2004 12:59

If you turn left at the rotten oak, and wait by the dingly dell, I will see you at closing time.

I'm meeting his sister, I've got something I want to show her

B

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 12:58

Biswell,

We are trying to discuss shares, I will set up an animated gif thread for you to play kiddies on.

Off you go now there's a good boy

BBM

[biswell] 10/6/2004 12:54

If you are all lucky you might get to meet his other brother(who is a Xdresser), he might show you something else and give you something.

Either way if you all go down in the woods today you may be in for a big suprise
B

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 12:54

Mmmm yes, and I've just had a Badedas bath, and you know what they say....

[biswell] 10/6/2004 12:46

Ashley take Oho and goml for a walk in the woods.

You will meet Oho's brother and you can all follow him, he has something he wants to show you.
B

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 12:33

Bis,

Oh I see effective spread 63.50p/62.50p ie just 1p so if you buy and sell 50,000 your risk is just £500 at time of entry plus costs?

You still on 10 times GNI Margin ie just using £3,250 cash to support a £32,500 position?

Bit risky isn't it?

BBM

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 12:18

Bis,

I watched you selling 50,000 AVM yesterday at 64.00p and just laughed.

Now if the mms don't move the offer down how are you going to make a profit with transactional costs including mm spreads 1p to 3p bid/offer differential?

What happens if people invoke their normal Hedge positions long physical gold/gold producers short RAB Capital?

It is pretty obvious the arbitrage players long say AVM short OXS or vice a versa looking at charts anyway.

It is just a waterfall game, capital rolling from one to the next to the next.

However it makes no difference to those looking for Gold exposure on a 24 months view to take advantage on 10% CGT Taper Relief on AIM stocks.

The way you trade you must effectively work for the Inland Revenue and Market Makers, the percentage of your capital used up in mm spreads and Tax must be so significant it is no wonder you have to work as a wageslave for a living.

I am beginning to feel quite sorry for you actually, you are clearly an addicted gambler.

BBM