Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[b b muppet] 06/6/2004 23:59

Richgit,

Well I hope that your Tax Bill is massive from your AVM position, I also hope you are by then relaxing on a Tax Free Desert Island drinking Pina Coladas enjoying your ill gotten gains!

All the best

BBM

[jeddah jo] 06/6/2004 20:01

Richgit,

Funny you mention Fuket as I am currently in residence in an attempt to avoid Tony and the barrow boys as you so eloquently phrase it. Personally I would have put it more like Tony and his menage of screaming mincers, but I guess it is a matter of taste.

Received my tax return chez moi a couple of months ago, and I feel like I want to send it back and tell them to stick it where the sun don't shine, but as they owe me some back taxes I guess I will have to fill it in like a dutiful serf, smile, bend over and take whatever they send me.

I am personally in AVM for the long term, even in the last major bull market in Gold of the 70-80s there were still entire years where it traded down before resuming its parabollic ascent. I will return to the 'developed' world in due course but not until it has shaken off some of its fiat excesses. Will probably pick up a property or two once all those over-leveraged liberal elite scum have bankrupted themselves and are homeless on Clapham Common, wondering why their million pound residences aren't quite as desirable as they once thought.

Well I guess it's the easy life for me for a year or two. Living off interest from my investments and perusing the local nightlife scene in the exotic Far East. Fancied taking a trip down to Lanut, just to make sure it really existed but am not really sure where it is on the map and would feel a bit silly landing at Jakarta and winging it.

Anyone out this way, drop me a line and we can meet up and discuss the merits of Gold while nubile young girls jiggle around shiny poles, metallic or otherwise...

Yours in debauchery,
Jeddah Jo.

[richgit] 04/6/2004 22:17

Bp,

Time to chill out,watch and wait.
Hopefully the truly defining moment for realistic value between
July=(SURPRISES)= and Lanut.

Plus the Mining Sector should be in vogue again sept onwards.
Avocet at this lowly price still remains my biggest Gold stock as a hedge
from Terrorism,Atrocity and hysterical world collapse.

Whether it will protect against the biggest danger, "Tony and the barrow boys"
is a tough call.

I only wish the Dot-com era would repeat itself and this time I would
send the Inland Revenue my I.O.U postmarked from somewhere appropriate like Fuket.

[b b muppet] 04/6/2004 14:24

Jeddah Jo,

Signs that gold low might be in at US$384.75 area:-



At moment we seem to have A Wave US$370.80 to US$398.60 a US$27.80 move, the issue is whether this B sequence ABC sees a drop stop at 30.90%, 38.20%, 50.00% to 61.80% of A ie a correction of US$8.60=US$390.00, US$10.60=US$388.00, US$13.90=US$384.70, US$17.20=US$381.40 or whether C of B goes impulse down.


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[b b muppet] 03/6/2004 13:24

Mieke,

Gold off to the races following ECB CPI Figures today, expect US Non Farm Productivity and Labour Costs to confirm this trend in USA at 2.30 GMT

I note ECB Figures this morning showed Inflation 25% above target at 2.50%


ECB Announcement
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Definition
The European Central Bank Governing Council consists of 16 members. The Committee meets twice a month. The first monthly meeting of the month is devoted to monetary policy. Changes in monetary policy are announced immediately after the meetings. A press conference is held about 45 minutes after the meeting ends. A statement is read concerning their action -- or lack of it -- followed by a question and answer period. Unlike other major central banks, the ECB does not publish meeting minutes or make voting records on monetary policy issues public. Why Investors Care
Highlights
As expected, the European Central Bank Governing Council left its key interest rate at 2 percent today. The May flash harmonized index of consumer prices unexpectedly jumped by 2.5 percent when compared with last year. This is above the ECB's inflation target of 2 percent or below. Growth in the eurozone appears to be stabilizing, albeit at an anemic pace. Good manufacturing and services purchasing managers' surveys also indicated growing strength in the manufacturing and services sector, but domestic demand remains weak. During the press conference that follows the ECB's rate setting meeting, ECB president Jean Claude Trichet said that recovery in the eurozone was underway and expected to accelerate in 2005.




Trends
The ECB monitors two "pillars" of monetary policy - the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) and M3 money supply - in its objective to control inflation above all else. The ceiling for HICP growth is 2 percent. M3 growth is targeted at a 4.5 percent growth rate. The Bank has had trouble controlling both and has stubbornly ignored anemic economic growth in favor of forcing inflation below its ceiling. Flash May HICP jumped to 2.5 percent but money supply growth is finally easing. The ECB relented in December 2002 and lowered the key interest rate by 50 basis points to 2.75 percent. This was followed by another easing in March 2003 by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent. The Bank lowered interest rates by 50 basis points to an all time low of 2.0 percent on June 5, 2003 where it has remained ever since.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
2004 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/8 2/5 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2
Released For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

[b b muppet] 03/6/2004 12:20

Mieke,

Sorry, JSE always leads way with Gold Mining shares view this as positive:-

Gold stocks shine on mixed JSE


The JSE Securities Exchange South Africa (JSE) was a mixed bag at the opening today, although gold stocks, bouncing from an oversold position, shone.

Although the Dow was up overnight, European markets and US futures were drifting weaker, making it difficult for the local bourse to find direction.

By 09h21, the all share index was up a marginal 0.09%. Industrials and financials were 0.43% and 0.21% firmer respectively, while the gold mining index was 0.94% stronger. Resources retreated 0.37%, the platinum mining index lost 0.4%, while the banks index dipped 0.08%.

The rand was quoted at 6.48 per dollar from 6.46 when the JSE closed on Wednesday, while gold was quoted at US$390.80 an ounce from $393.00 at the JSE's last close.

"The opening has not been too bad. The market has been pretty mixed and all over the show," a dealer said. "The dual-listed stocks are generally weaker and even though the rand is softer, the gold price had dropped, so the rand isn't having much effect on resources."

She added that due to the market's volatility, players tended to tread carefully at the opening.

Gold stocks were nevertheless firmer, after being oversold on Wednesday.

However, it was London-listed beverages group SABMiller (SAB) which led the upside in early trade, surging 2.06% or 1.59 rand to 78.80 rand.

The dealer said this was on talk that SABMiller would not up its offer for China's Harbin Brewery, thus avoiding a prolonged bidding war with rival Anheuser-Busch.

On the gold mining index, AngloGold Ashanti (ANG) added 1.36% or three rand to 224 rand, Gold Fields (GFI) gained 1.21% or 87 cents to 73 rand and Harmony (HAR) was 30 cents higher at 74.20 rand.

However, London-listed diversified resources group BHP Billiton (BIL) slid 1.48% or 80 cents to 53.10 rand and synthetic fuels group Sasol (SOL) eased 60 cents to 102 rand.

Brand management group Barloworld (BAW) shed 1% or 70 cents to 69 rand, but hospital group Netcare (NTC) strengthened 1.75% or eight cents to 4.65 rand.

On the financial front, Nedcor (NED) notched up 1.63% or one rand to 62.40 rand, but Standard Bank (SBK) eased 10 cents to 42.70 rand and ABSA (ASA) was 15 cents in the red at 42.70 rand.

Real estate company Liberty International Plc (LBT) was up 1.08% or 95 cents to 89 rand.

AFX reports that US stocks finished mixed Wednesday as a pullback in oil prices sent the Dow higher but the Nasdaq fell just short in its bid for an eighth straight positive session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up about 60 points, or 0.6%, at 10,263, while the Nasdaq Composite surrendered almost 2 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 1,989. The Nasdaq's benchmark hadn't posted a loss since May 20.

The S&P 500 gained 0.3% to 1,124.99, while the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks added 0.2% to finish at 573.56.

Equities were helped by oil prices tumbling ahead of a pivotal OPEC meeting on Thursday. Economic reports were light ahead of Friday's key jobs report, which is expected to provide a vital clue to the timing of any eventual interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.


03 June 2004

[mieke] 03/6/2004 09:00

In which case please dont feel you have to point it out to me again old chap.....

[b b muppet] 03/6/2004 08:53

Mieke,

All trades by definition are sells, either sells to the mm or sells by the mms.

I really get bored to death with pointing this out, a trade is where a BUYER and a SELLER agree to transact at an agreed price.

It therefore makes NO DIFFERENCE which column a trade is shown in, it is the price transacted at that matters.

Trades at 64.00p inside 63.00p/66.00p bid offer spread show rising bid prices even for amounts at 650% of 10,000 NMS.

On the basis that the retail punter is wrong 90% of the time and mms are right majority of the time I dare say commercials are right buying and punters wrong selling.

Now let's try again, with nothing to say as we wait until full year results and reserve and resource upgrades, gold behaving exactly as expected, I have made a conscious decision to post less and wait for news.

I personally think it is in our interest to let jobbers work orders they have through the market, and as such silence might be golden at the moment if they are positioning clients pre 21st July 2004 results as I suspect.

Personally glad to see volumes coming back, so I think let them get on with it.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

BBM

[mieke] 03/6/2004 07:51

Couple of sizeable trades this morning, look like sells according to advfn but no price reaction.......

[b b muppet] 01/6/2004 16:29

Robby,

If gold hammers here backtesting above US$392.80-US$394.80 area reckon we are in good shape, especially if next move up is an impulse C spike which I expect.

However really do want to see us turn above US$393.50, if so the long awaited bull run in gold can really get under way.

Here is to hoping, but can not see a strong Dollar long term, nor weak gold price and expecting rapid moves based on inflationary sentiment, and any geopolitical upsets in Middle East could send Gold and Oil Stratospheric very quickly IMHO.

You may wish me to expand on this, but I couldn't possibly.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

BBM

[robby george] 01/6/2004 15:03

Ash

That post was a tad brief , could you expand ?

LOL !

Douglas

[b b muppet] 01/6/2004 12:42

Penrose,

Gold shooting up think my predictions may come sooner rather than later!


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UB04 UK FTSE MINING INDEX hot on it's heals with double bottom backtest of 6600 in place!:)

[b b muppet] 01/6/2004 09:53

Budenveiser,

Must admit to not following traditional charting methods, following EW and Fibonacci support/resistance, putting more emphasis on EW supports on EMA's than typical 200 day EMA used by most chartists.

A lot is going to depend on missionary work AVM put in ahead of results out 21st July 2004, plus updated Reserves/Resources, from a chart point of view I believe solid uptrend support 212 day EMA, with immediate support 64.50p and resistance really 65.00p.

Gut feeling is AVM would move rapidly on break through 65.00p, because see corrective A five wave complete (AI 66.50p/66.00p, AIII 66.50p 64.50p AV 65.00p/64.50p with I and V at equality 0.50p).

Expect it to bounce around in tight range then break decisively on increased volume when goldprice spikes up and in lead up to results.

Director and Insider Pension purchases pretty much underly any prices between 60.50p and 69.50p as perceived undervalued buying range.



I personally think AVM will break 75.00p area when gold has cleared and backtested US$400 and resumed upwards move towards US$447.60 and US$480.90 later on this year.

We are really waiting for MACD Zero break now to confirm resumption of upmove.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR ETC, ETC

BBM

[budevenwiser] 01/6/2004 09:24

yep stayed near keswick gods country up there
right bbm
you is the techy expert i am the student only know the basics and dont mind admitting it ( but i do know a bargain when i see one ) so tell me if i am right , did a bit of analysis last night
on the long term chart i drew a line from top at 03 97 to top in 01 04 the long term downtrend is now at 68p so if we get thru that we have broken the long term downtrend
we have an accending wedge formation , base line from late 10 03 touching early 03 04 and the decending line from high in 01 04 touching each peak on the way down , the lines intersect in early july but understand it is much more bullish if it breaks out well before then ( this part of the chart just reminds me of gold ,around the 365 mark , think it was around 09 03 just before it broke out )
we also have a slightly rising trend channel , base line at the start of 03 04 to mid 05 04 which is more or less where the 200 dma which we have never closed under all the way up
cant help thinking we are in for a big and very fast move up , as long as we dont close below the 200 dma there is very little downside and a lot of upside so risk reward is very good , cheers
also realise 200 dma is not the end of bull if breached some peeps like to use 455 dma

[b b muppet] 01/6/2004 08:46

Bud,

Lake District?

Gold Looking really positive IMHO:-


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Double bottom on AVM retest of 64.50p support looks good to me:-

[budevenwiser] 01/6/2004 08:20

had a very nice time thanks , went up the lakes for 3 nights and got the weather as well.

[b b muppet] 01/6/2004 07:48

Morning all.

Hope everybody enjoyed their Bank Holiday Break

BBM

[b b muppet] 31/5/2004 16:00

Looks like the Gold Price is indeed likely to go Stellar this year:-

Money Supply, the Dollar, and Gold:

Normally my take on rising M-3 is that it means most markets, especially equities, will rise (see issues nos. 50 and 52 in the archives at www.technicalindicatorindex.com). However, the unprecedented pre-crisis liquidity infusions we are seeing this past month are saying something else. The amount of growth is too much, too soon, indicative of an unseen (to all but the master planners) imbalance about to blow. The Fed knows something, and their massive infusion of liquidity is a signal that a crash event is not only imminent, but likely unavoidable. The extraordinary M-3 growth we are seeing is the level of liquidity infused to halt crashes, and to fuel post-crash recoveries. Given that M-3 increases take 1 to 6 months to affect markets, that means what has just been injected into the economy should be kicking in around mid to late summer, just about when the 2002/2004 analog suggests the coming crash should end.

There has never been a six-week infusion of M-3 of this size preemptively (before a crash has occurred) in the history of the United States.

There was only one other time we saw this level of M-3 growth over a six week period in the history of the United States, and that was AFTER 9/11/01. The Fed rightfully pumped $170 billion into the system the week of 9/17/01. They did a good job doing so. After the stock market crash of 1987, the Fed increased M-3 a mere 0.08 billion, or at the time 2.2 percent, from 3.61 to 3.69 trillion.

But in the past 4 weeks, M-3 is up a whopping $155 billion, a $2.0 trillion, 22.2 percent annualized pace. Since the Dow Industrials topped in February, M-3 is up $280 billion. The entire money supply in the U.S. was $2.0 trillion in 1981. The Fed is now on a pace to grow M-3 by that amount over the next twelve months.

We've had five equity crashes since this Bear market began in 2000. Here are the annual M-3 growth figures:

2000 - up $568 billion, up 8.6%.
2001 - up $900 billion, up 12.6%.
2002 - up $521 billion, up 6.5%.
2003 - up $272 billion, up 3.2%.
1st 5 months of 2004 - up $400 billion.

What bothers me most about this crisis level of liquidity infusion is that it is coming before a widely known catastrophe. This is bad for the Dollar and good for Gold. The chart below (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) shows the U.S. Dollar breaking down hard.

[chipperfrd] 31/5/2004 11:12

mieke - yes that is the big question!

Seems to me that the Fed are between a rock & a hard place. They are way behind the curve regarding their timing of IR rises and would now have to use unacceptably large increases in order to gain some semblance of control.

However, the impact of large rises in IR would have dramatic effects on the markets, housing debt, etc, etc and most notably on the chances of G Bush for re-election. Would they risk causing a major slump or are they more likely to allow inflation and a declining $ to ease their debt crisis?

I see the situation as positive for Gold. With rising CPI and low returns on money there is likely to be a shift towards assets that are not declining in real terms.

I think the recent top in US$ has been a great opportunity to increase exposure to gold and silver but I am more bearish towards other equities.

[mieke] 31/5/2004 09:47

One other thing that intrigues me. Gold is often viewed as an inflation hedge, and does well when inflation looms. Inflation may now be rearing its ugly head in the US, as a result of increases in commodities, the oil price etc, which should be good for POG. However if inflation does take hold in the US the authorities will jack up interest rates, which in turn strengthens the $ and is bad for POG. The effect of these two forces on POG seems contradictory; which one is the more powerful? How will that particular tug of war play out in the next 12 months?