Avocet Mining Share Discussion Threads

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 13:03

Biswell,

Why if it only costs the FED 2 cents to make a Dollar, will the price of a Dollar increase?

USD Money supply M3 is probably around US$10 trillion now, how can the Dollar increase in value with US$400 billion printed by the FED so far in 2004?

[wolstencroft] 10/6/2004 13:01

Bis

I agree, "too many gold investors are looking through rose tinted spectacles".

But then perhaps that applies to the whole market - the future is so uncertain and stocks are still overvalued especially in the US. What will happen to the debt problems of the US when FED rates return to 3 or 4%?

At least gold stocks are relatively decoupled from the conventional markets, and I dont think they will collapse when the dollar does.

But I am a relatively long term holder - I should have taken more profits earlier this year but OXS and AVM have some way to go I think and I bought in at much cheaper levels (OXUS betwen 12 and 20p, AVM around 40p).

For short term trading the wisest and most accurate commentary I have found re gold and silver is Leonard Kaplan from prospector asset management. Canaccord also publish his reports. He is not so long term as Russell, and make a lot more sense that Jim Sinclair, who I dont bother readnig anymore.

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 12:59

...Dopey as it happens, but the mushrooms do make one forgetful.

edit. ....and repetitive!

[biswell] 10/6/2004 12:58

goml

No I only think $345 as you well know, $315 will come next year
B

[biswell] 10/6/2004 12:57

goml

No I only think $345 as you well know, $315 will come next year
B

[biswell] 10/6/2004 12:55

ohojim

Lol

Yes but you are Grumpy, and I can't recall sharing any magic mushrooms with you.
B

[b b muppet] 10/6/2004 12:42

GOML,

It is entirely illogical for "DAS BOYZ" ie The Rothschilds et al to want the Dollar to go up if they have just sold another US$400 billion of them via the FED, they must want the price to go down to buy them back cheaper.

Noting that the Bank Of England another Rothschild's subsidiary sold all their gold into 1999 and 2001, one can only assume they are buyers back of this gold and have been for some time.

Presumably they will want to sell it at some stage by marking the prices up as they mark the Dollar down.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

BBM

[goml] 10/6/2004 12:36

ok biswell, lets play your game for a while. pog loses $5 / day. fed meet 29 june, 14 trading days = $70 drop.

biswell is calling gold at $315 on june 29.

if you're right i will congratulate you on a good call.

if you're wrong i will feel validated in my presumption about you that you are a ploker rodney.

[biswell] 10/6/2004 12:30

W

I am not concerned in long term.

I am concerned with the here and now, and making money as quick and as painless as possible.

Too many gold investors are looking through rose tinted spectacles believing the bulls who say it is just going higher and higher, result they don't sell and don't operate stop losses, and live in the belief that their shares will go higher and higher.

They fall in love with them, and don't treat them as pieces of paper that are for selling and buying
B

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 12:27

....and your 6 brothers are dwarfs.

[biswell] 10/6/2004 12:25

Nobody is safe, it's a dangerous world full of sharks.

The world is a big cake, and we are all fighting each other for a bigger piece than the next fellow.

I'm greedy
B

[wolstencroft] 10/6/2004 12:23

Bis,

Russell states in his remark that you refer to

"Your biggest position should be in US dollars now, with gold basically owned for insurance purposes."

And in his most recent Dow Theory letter:

"I don't know, but it does make me think that these are ideal conditions for
the accumulation of gold"

Russell's basic approach to investing is long term and "Dont tell me what to buy, tell me when". He is not concerned with little rises or drops in gold (or silver). He believes that gold is in a primary bull market. I imagine that you are not a subscriber else you would know that and not use his comments for your bearish stance.

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 12:08

My pink half of the drainpipe
I may paint it blue
My pink half of the drainpipe
Keeps me safe from
you!

My pink half of the drainpipe
Separates me from the incredibly fascinating story of your life and
every day to day event in all it's minute and tedious attention to
detail... And was it a Thursday or a Wednesday? Or, oh, no, it wasn't though. Oh,
who cares anyway because I do not so biswell, if you're normal, I intend to
be a freak for the rest of my life, and I shall baffle you with cabbages
and rhinoceroses in the kitchen incessant quotations from "Now We Are
Six" through the mouthpiece of Lord Snooty's giant poisoned electric
head.

So
theeeeeere.........

[biswell] 10/6/2004 11:58

POG is losing $5 a day, the FED meet on June 29th, do the maths
B

[goml] 10/6/2004 11:58

biswell,

its just one opinion among many. will you believe him if at some point he says gold will be going up?

[biswell] 10/6/2004 11:57

If you don't believe me that $ is better than gold right now, then perhaps you will believe Richard

B

[ohojim] 10/6/2004 11:06

How about

My Pink Half of the Drain Pipe (Vivian Stanshall)

Diplomat Jim

[biswell] 10/6/2004 10:17

No

Try

Take The Money And Run (Gerry Rafferty)
B

[goml] 10/6/2004 09:57

biswell, is that the best you can do? it is NOT worthy of you.

construct a bear argument you fraud !

[biswell] 10/6/2004 09:34

For any wobblers here a couple of tunes I always thought were good(I have a musical background as well as being a good dancer).

Go Now (The Moody Blues).........I've already said(many times)....go now
Good Bye(Peter and Dudley).......Now IS the time to say good bye(not good buy)
B

[biswell] 10/6/2004 09:27

That's two days of $5 a day fall for POG, consistent in nothing else, silver is also showing consistant loss.

Just look at the kitco charts at the thread top, they are forming carbon copies almost
B

[goml] 10/6/2004 08:14

gammabod,

i agree, priced in, but nevertheless AVM will probably go a bit lower still (i hold by the way!). although i have to say that i think biswell is missing the point about the way the market tends to work in two important respects. first that it always anticipates what's coming next so that the majority of the effect gets built in in advance. second if everyone expects the dollar to strengthen after a 25bp rise then sure as eggs are eggs it will fall.

incidentally i can't help notice how few people contemplate the chance of no change by the fed. i agree its not probable but certainly is possible! if no increase then dollar will swiftly resume downwards path. if increase does come then i think the dollar will strengthen a bit more before the market takes a deep breath, realises that it hasn't really changed anything and the dollar then resumes downwards path.

the only fly in the ointment is the feds weasel words designed to scare the market into thinking they'll move swiftly on interest rates to choke inflation...yeh right...oink oink im coming in to land.

[gammabod] 09/6/2004 16:07

Priced in!
I should say - the Dec 3m USD Libor future (Eurodollar) is showing an expectation of 2.60%!!!!!!!

[richgit] 09/6/2004 16:04

Interesting,and how long before we read that interest rate increase(If it happens)was already priced into the market.

Will it be "Oil steady and under control" inflation not a problem,no increase.

I wouldnt like to be in Greenspan`s shoes,damned if he does,damned if he
doesn`t.