Aviva Share Discussion Threads

[tuftymatt] 02/1/2023 09:19

That's a really positive article and let's hope the circa £2 upside mentioned does come in 23 👍🏻

[1robbob] 02/1/2023 08:39

cyberian
The Sunday Times article is behind their pay-wall
Any chance you could copy and paste it here,please?
...I am intrigued as to how they get to a value of 650p per share by the end of 2023

[cyberian] 01/1/2023 17:37

A very decent write-up on page 5 of the Sunday Times Business section....well worth the read on our CEO Amanda Blanc. CEO of the year 2022 no less! There is is an interesting reference that the value for investors will get to 650p by the end of 2023 if the distributions Aviva has promised are rolled in.

[yump] 30/12/2022 23:16

The most scary conclusion would be that its all just dartboard investing and that any overall successes you hear about or achieve are just a statistical certainty amongst all the failures, which are never publicly acknowledged !

[huckers] 30/12/2022 19:25

The efficient market theory is widely discredited and demonstrably false. It just doesn’t describe real-world investing at all but is an idealised but incorrect model.

[marksp2011] 30/12/2022 12:00

You are confusing Price and Value. You trade at price and you hold value

Efficient Market Theory implies that the price is formed from all the publicly available information and it should be a "correct" valuation. It may be true in the long run, (whatever that may be), but it certainly isn't in the shorter term

[fenners66] 30/12/2022 11:49

bhoddhisattva

I agree on buying and arguably selling (or never selling) a company based on fundamentals.
However what do you use for deciding what the low valuation or high valuation is ?

Fundamentally you could decide its this or that level of PE or some other metric
but why choose a number (say for PE ) in the first place ?

Isn't that based upon a measure the market accepts?
So by tradition a PE or other metric by .....

That of course can be followed by many , so they could all make the same decision
and then the chart of those decisions might be predictable....

[bhoddhisattva] 30/12/2022 10:34

No! Utterly subjective and u reliable IMHO

Far better to assess fundamentals, decide if business is performing well, safe, viable and if it’s good value - or not. Buy at low valuation and sell at high valuation.

All else is superstition.

[yf23_1] 29/12/2022 16:44

You don't use charts to identify support/resistance levels !??

[bracke] 29/12/2022 14:43

ddroz

This may be of use:

[spud] 28/12/2022 23:49

And there's the crux. If enough believe, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. I confess to using it to time my accumulation buys and overweight sells. Seems to work pretty well for me but each to their own I guess. spud

[yump] 28/12/2022 22:11

I’ve tried over many years from time to time, to find some peer assessed charting evidence that’s based on significant statistical results and drawn a blank.

When you challenge chartists, you get referred to someone’s “authoritative” book or course or years of experience.

May as well believe the book of Mormon.

The best argument for charting validity is that when there are enough believers, it could be self-fulfilling.

[salver2] 28/12/2022 20:56

Correct I should have said

[bhoddhisattva] 28/12/2022 19:13

I disagree with charting full stop - sorry!

Pareidola - Google it.

[hallucinogenix] 28/12/2022 12:15

IG Trading app is my personal favourite and it's free - I'm sure others will disagree :)

[ddroz] 28/12/2022 08:00

Whist we wait for the bell, can anyone recommend some charting software, please? I use AJ Bell as a broker, but charting is clunky.

[1robbob] 27/12/2022 21:19

Klotzak: re Special Dividend possibilities
Of course it is a left-field idea, but I would have thought it a possibility

At the end of Q3 the Solvency 2 cover ratio stood at 215%.
This is 35% or £2.7bn above the 180% ceiling set by the BOD

I suspect that the Year End Solvency 2 ratio will be above the Q3 level, perhaps significantly so

Lets say:
1) Additional £500m de-leveraging (making £2bn for the year) = 6.5% reduction in S2 ratio
2) Final Dividend £575m = 7.5% reduction in S2 ratio
3) Share Buy-back programme £700m = 9.0% reduction in S2 ratio

TOTAL reduction in S2 ratio of 23% to 192% or £1.0bn surplus over 180%

A 10p Special Dividend would cost £280m or 3.5%, leaving the S2 cover ratio at 189%+;
£700m+ above the BODs self-imposed ceiling of 180% + any increase in the surplus in Q4

We will see on 9th March

[cjac39] 27/12/2022 19:52

i dont have any visibility on that 1rob. hes not someone i know at all and is an asset mgr. reminds me a lot of HHG that spun out of AMP in 2003/4. crazy marriage of an insurer with an asset mgr run by an asset mgr with no ins knowledge.

generally speaking i dont find asset mgrs that impressive; not that strategic and dont allocate capital well outside their narrow expertise. clearly a generalisation.

i also think its bit underwhelming looking at basically low growth insurers trying to persuade mkt they are open machines eg phnx and just

mng actually has some credibility here and aviva and lng definitely do.

so lots to play for and if i was running mng id break it up in a heartbeat. hopefully they wont waste more money on stupid m and a before someone encourages them to focus on shareholder returns.

but is mng the cheapest out there with massive value backing - my vote is yes

[klotzak] 27/12/2022 10:50

Iron, quite a while back, post cash return, you mentioned that the maths worked out at another 10p special dividend. Do the sims still add up to that, or are the buy backs using that money?

[1robbob] 26/12/2022 20:29

Thanks cjac...definiely not

Seriously, I suspect that M&G will use a very similar 'play-book' as AV
Hopefully on 7th March the new CEO will reaffirm the Cash generation targets and Dividend policy and also announce a thrust into the BPA market
Followed by further Director share purchases

[cjac39] 24/12/2022 17:16

you been on the xmas sherry already 1rob? 🤪

[1robbob] 24/12/2022 17:08

Cjac
Lets hope the new CEO of M&G shows the same leadership qualities as Amanda B.
Hopefully to be revield on 7th March with yhe Final Results for 2022

Seasons Greetings to all

[cjac39] 24/12/2022 09:08

De nada eurofox - i enjoy this discussion and wish all aviva folk well. its striking how little there is to say about aviva nowadays. still undervalued for sure but also still bit boring. divi is rock solid so feel good about parking money here with macro uncertainty.

i also think its interesting how the transitory inflation calls have now shifted to sticky inflation. fear the central banks; getting stuck on way down so higher rates for longer etc etc. for me thats all wrong - productivity declines on demography is an unassailable force and the debt fuelled growth is the only game in town. there are many solid counter arguments against this but i think its more impactful than all.

curiously thats not overall good for insurers as weve discussed as they, like banks, enjoy higher rates, but its also proven not to be bad.

time and again though you see hubris from mgmt teams like aviva or mng wasting our money. succession was a ridiculous purchase at >16x ebitda including heads of terms businesses not yet bought. by all accounts now shipping £50mln per month. ascentric and pretty much everything mng has bought were all ridiculous and overpriced. same for abrdn. car crash in m and a.

but on a positive end i do think the mgmt team at aviva, aside from the odd m and a slip, are executing well and we should be happy about that.

off topic but someone wondered why mng was unloved. i dont know! i think its just misunderstood. and to be fair its complicated and the ifrs (meaningless) book value is flying around all over the place. but the more i look (and tell all my private equity friends) the more im convinced its undervalued. the hidden value in the with profits fund underpins everything. how the PRA hasnt done something on the unallocated estate i dont know. but happy days - they raised £2.5bln in new prufunds in H1 alone which just adds optionality. and you have one of the best asset mgrs in europe in the price as well. if they just open up to BPA and annuities again it would leave JUST and PHNX for dust. in meantime enjoy the 10% divi

merry xmas all.

[dutchguilder] 24/12/2022 08:46

cjac39, that's some really useful analysis in MNG, thank you for sharing.We all have our own ideas of a self run portfolio, some more successful than others. Are you adding MNG at the moment, perhaps at a ratio with AV. shares?An 'out there' question to everyone.. do you think AV. is too big to be taken over now, same question on MNG?