Aveva Share Discussion Threads

[forthurst] 18/5/2006 12:36

anyone apart from me get cross-eyed reading the RNS, here is the pdf from Aveva

[wjccghcc] 18/5/2006 12:12

Completely agree. Adjusted EPS 20% ahead of the revised expectations. Recurring revenues now up to 62% of total revenues. Huge oil & gas / nuclear expenditure planned by the industry. Oh and stonking cash generation too with R&D per capita significanly higher than the industry. They are a very well managed company in a sweet spot.

Historic PE now 23 which is likely to put the current year PE around 19-20 after upgrades. Was thinking of taking some profits after the results but companies likely to perform this well over the next few years will be few and far between IMHO. Will look to add if the market fallout hits here.

About the only negative I can see is that $ revenues are about 30% of total revenues, although they do have local staff costs in $ and hedge the remainder so any effect will be smoothed.

Bravo Aveva.

[johnrxx99] 18/5/2006 09:02

What a terrible day to have fantastic results. If I've any money left after this week time to get my topup in.

[johnrxx99] 03/5/2006 16:39

To quote from the trading statement on 11th April

"As a result of the progress outlined above we expect to report profit before tax for the year to 31 March 2006 significantly ahead of current market consensus."

I like significance.

[johnrxx99] 03/5/2006 16:34

Well, the power of profit is dragging the price down in late afternoon trading but with results due on the 18th perhaps some news, over a good lunch, is starting to come out. Hope so, for me, very long.

[shuisky] 27/4/2006 16:19

We'll know how it's valued when the results come out.

[johnrxx99] 26/4/2006 09:15

I'd say it was valued fairly at present for a world leader. Would be double on Nasdaq. A long term, sleep at night, buy on the dips gem imho.

[wjccghcc] 25/4/2006 17:53

I'd be surprised if you see anything much under 11 quid to buy. After all that's the price they were at before the significantly ahead statement. Wouldn't be surprised to see them making EPS of 52-55p in the current year (ending mar 07) putting them on a current PE of 20, which for a global leader with sustained growing end markets is good value IMHO.

Still a profit's a profit :-)

[tday] 25/4/2006 16:25

Decided to take my profits.

A great business but perhaps the company is currently fully valued.

Will buy back in again if, the share price drops to the 1000p level.

[johnrxx99] 18/4/2006 09:06

Points noted WJCC and good ones at that. When the directors are viewing retirement anything can happen but when that mindset kicks in, the secured expertise tends not to be so focussed - personal experience.

However, never fall in love etc so £16+ the yanks can have it and I'll find another sweetheart, and light a candle for the lost siliconfen jobs.

[wjccghcc] 18/4/2006 08:40

johnrxx, I agree there's no way this could be a target without management's approval. Having said that, they have been taking significant market share from the Americans and their proactive visionary approach to the sector means that's likely to continue for some time. The only way the competition can play catch up is to put in a very attractive offer and get management on side. 16 quid would be a PE of 32 which would not be expensive by US standards, particularly if it secured the expertise of the management.

Like you I've held for the last few years so not sure I want it to happen, but wouldn't be too surprised if it did.

[johnrxx99] 17/4/2006 14:53

rajauk - totally disagree this could be a target. It is very expensive and so focused who could do better than the current management, who are experts in their field. No assets to exploit etc. Possibly the biggest non-target in the software field, unless Carling are about!

PS: they ain't coming down either in the near future. Bite the bullet, you know it makes sense for the very long term. Even at a p/e over 20, I've done 50% pa for the last few years with the benefit of a few dips.

[sharw] 15/4/2006 10:49

From Questor in today's Telegraph:

Isn't Aveva that insurer that tried - and failed - to buy the Pru the other week? No, that's Aviva. Aveva provides engineering data and designs IT systems, and seem to be doing fairly well at it.

This week's trading update was well received by the market, with a profit upgrade to boot. The previous consensus forecast was £11.5m, but now broker Seymour Pierce is looking for around £13.4m this year.

The other salient piece of information in the update was its contract with Kawasaki, which brings with it an initial fee of £1m.

Aveva is a relatively small company doing well in a niche area, but has exposure to booming markets such as oil and gas and marine, and is well placed to take advantage of developments in the fast-growing Asia Pacific region.

That said, even based on the recent upgrades, the shares, at £11.50, sit on a forward price-earnings ratio of 25 times, and so investors who want to get involved will have to realise they are paying top dollar. Interesting nonetheless.

[rajauk] 12/4/2006 13:42

I hope these come down. I cannot understand why they should after what they said yesterday. If it drops to £11, i am getting back in. I sold my position at £11.11 but I am regretting it know. This imho is a good takeover target and I feel the buyer would have to pay a fairly large primium to get AVV.

[johnrxx99] 12/4/2006 12:13

The MM's are desperate for stock. Reduced the price 5.5% to get some sellers but can't by £1k online. Even the broker had difficulty.

[johnrxx99] 12/4/2006 09:06

And the story again from Siliconfen:-

[sharw] 11/4/2006 20:36

Some interesting comments and broker upgrades at:

[wjccghcc] 11/4/2006 17:51

Nice one. I had some there but sold out in the low 400s only to buy back at about 470 I think.

[maldone] 11/4/2006 14:31

Super freeging duper!!

[johnrxx99] 11/4/2006 14:31

large sell on the news (50k) gone through.

[johnrxx99] 11/4/2006 14:12

Just checked, 375p June '03. Soon be a 4 bagger!

[johnrxx99] 11/4/2006 14:08

Well done, beat me by a smidgeon! Along with KIE and VED, the only three I sleep well with. Could be a few more ...

[wjccghcc] 11/4/2006 13:37

Held since 5 quid. Been adding all the way up. I wouldn't be surprised if an American co tried to buy them in the near term.