Avation Share Discussion Threads

[albert arthur] 10/12/2020 16:00

I've taken some her in the SIPP today. Had my eye on it a while.

[sharesoc] 17/11/2020 12:22

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[russman] 15/11/2020 07:52

65% that it quite a haircut.
Have to do a deal with the bondholders - & before New Year

[sharesoc] 01/11/2020 20:19

Current shareholders and potential investors may be interested in our webinar with Avation tomorrow. Sign up here:

[anangf] 01/11/2020 18:33

Who has a secured charge on the aircraft. Surely that is cheaper financing that avation issuing senior unsecured paper?

[russman] 28/10/2020 06:13

For the bondholders to rollover on the same terms.
my calc is a bribe of 20m ord share warrants @ 150p pro rata.
significant dilution to ords.
but ensures survival and may narrow share price discount to quoted NAV.

[russman] 26/10/2020 06:09

I watched the shareholder call on Friday.
It was a waste of time.
Think the BoD need a dose of reality.
I had estimated a net $100m hit to their fleet valuation at year end.
The perils of lease accounting.

[sharesoc] 25/10/2020 12:27

Current shareholders and potential investors may be interested in our webinar with Avation on Monday 2nd Nov

[russman] 25/10/2020 06:06

have to wait for the detail Annual Report.
i.e the notes and the company balance sheet.
& CLA equity affect on gearing ratio.

[anangf] 24/10/2020 11:30

I was looking back at some old messages on this board. In 2015 comments were made about the refinancing risk this business faced. Also comments around Virgin Australia. Seem prophetic now.

[russman] 24/10/2020 07:30

doubt the bondholders would want a default either.
just a question of negotiating a compromise deal to roll the majority over.

[quepassa] 23/10/2020 07:39

" However, the independent auditors have indicated that the audit opinion on such statutory financial statements will be an unqualified opinion with a material uncertainty related to going concern. Such financial statements will include a disclosure by the Directors of the Company that there is a material uncertainty relating to the Directors' intention to obtain an extension to the 6.5% senior notes due 2021. "



Good Luck All.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[russman] 23/10/2020 07:28

what was this impairment on aircraft $35m?
Is it a movement on valuations.

[quepassa] 19/10/2020 09:59

As forseen, the refinancing of the May bond was going to be a major challenge.

If existing bondholders join in a "collaborative approach" rather than wanting out, one can but wonder to oneself what sort of interest rate or reward/kicker they will demand. And how expensive that may or may not be for Avation.

You mention share warrants. Yes a possibility. Although some fixed income investors don't want/like equity warrants and may instead want (significantly?) higher returns in the form of increased coupons.

Avation's RNS does not give much detail.

I also hope that this does not mean a potential haircut for bondholders.

But fundamentally if any company goes down the track of needing to renegotiate direct with existing bondholders rather than doing a standard open-market refinancing, it is shouting a loud message about investor appetite for the sector as a whole and about the company's limited refinancing possibilities.

Good Luck to Avation in tough times and good luck to bondholders/shareholders who have been caught in the massive downdraft of the aviation sector catastrophe caused by the unforeseeable pandemic.

I took a flight recently on a 180 seater A320 with less than 20 passengers on board. I hate to think how much money the airline lost on that flight. This is unsustainable for many airlines. With the increasing second wave in Europe, there is still a lot more sector pain to come in my opinion.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[russman] 19/10/2020 08:00

decided to negotiate with the bondholders.
probably want to roll over with lighter covenants.
cannot raise cash to pay them back.
probably have to bribe them with share warrants.

[harrogate] 18/10/2020 09:00

davydoo. Great to hear from you. Hope you are keeping well in these mad times.

[davydoo] 17/10/2020 23:28

The fokkers are all gone at last. What a
journey since this company was first spun out of Skywest

[russman] 17/10/2020 12:47

Friday 23rd. Better late than never

[russman] 27/9/2020 07:55

atill no results.

[russman] 14/9/2020 13:36

I was expecting the Finals last week.

[russman] 11/9/2020 13:19

It depends whether the valuer / auditor take the same long term view.
The bond holders have a shorter horizon.

[quepassa] 11/9/2020 11:24

Well, I hope for you that you are right.

But with covid on the rapid increase again and with autumn/winter approaching, personally not so sure that such optimism is realistic.

No disrespect meant but this is what you posted on 28th. February , number 2401 and it hasn't quite turned out that way:-

"Exceptional results this morning. Give it a few months and aviation will be back to normal. AVAP have a well diversified portfolio and they've shown they can quickly reposition aircraft."


Good Luck All. -But carry a shamrock and a hard-hat.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[a_game] 11/9/2020 10:20

They'll refinance the bond. Sure, they may have to take a higher interest rate but when the good times return (which they certainly will) they can refinance again.

I personally believe next year summer onwards (if not 2021, 2022 for sure) could see the biggest demand for leisure travel we've ever seen. Quite frankly I'm fed up of not having much of a holiday in good weather this year, I suspect a large part of the country are craving a holiday abroad too.

Sure - it's pretty catastrophic right now in the short term for aviation but those who survive will prosper again. In two years time, this will be very much a thing of the past. It might be a grim winter on the way, but we'll be over the worst of it coming into 2021.

Look to the future and there's significant value to be had here at the current share price imo.

[russman] 10/9/2020 08:41

AVAP's fleet is valued by a third party at the year end i.e 30th June.