ADVFN Logo

We could not find any results for:
Make sure your spelling is correct or try broadening your search.

Trending Now

Toplists

It looks like you aren't logged in.
Click the button below to log in and view your recent history.

Hot Features

Registration Strip Icon for default Register for Free to get streaming real-time quotes, interactive charts, live options flow, and more.

AVAP Avation Plc

114.00
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 08:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avation Plc LSE:AVAP London Ordinary Share GB00B196F554 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 114.00 112.00 116.00 114.00 114.00 114.00 14,570 08:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Equip Rental & Leasing, Nec 91.86M 12.19M 0.1720 6.63 80.78M
Avation Plc is listed in the Equip Rental & Leasing sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AVAP. The last closing price for Avation was 114p. Over the last year, Avation shares have traded in a share price range of 97.50p to 174.50p.

Avation currently has 70,863,124 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Avation is £80.78 million. Avation has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 6.63.

Avation Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3301 to 3325 of 3775 messages
Chat Pages: Latest  139  138  137  136  135  134  133  132  131  130  129  128  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
04/9/2020
05:40
Jeff should be checking his covenants; not much headroom left.
russman
03/9/2020
18:35
Just quoting his words QPHow is your short position going, I wish I had gone short after retracing from c180p?
fastbuck
03/9/2020
17:49
Is that really being in "a good place" with just 60% flying?
quepassa
03/9/2020
17:20
Mark Slater on his call right now says that AVAP is impacted, but they are in a good place with 60% of the book value of aircraft currently flying.They are a shareholder.
fastbuck
03/9/2020
16:02
Good luck to you and to Avation which is caught, through no fault of their own, in this terrible pandemic catastrophe, like so many businesses -where unfortunately the aviation industry is particularly badly impacted.

Avation have - quite contrary to what you write- been impacted in recent times by the administration of more than one airline ....

FlyBe
Thomas Cook
Virgin Australia
Braathens



Yes, there is appetite for bonds -even high-yield- because interest rates are so low. But that appetite is not necessarily the same across the entire ratings spectrum.

Are you aware of the current market price of Avation bonds and the yield to maturity which they give?


Herewith a link to Fitch Ratings:-

Have a look at the Fitch Ratings Definition of single B.

Remember that Avation is rated not just single B but is on NEGATIVE WATCH.

Also have a look at Fitch's Issuer Default Ratings definitions for the neighbouring categories of BB and CCC.

hXXps://www.fitchratings.com/products/rating-definitions


Good Luck All.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

quepassa
03/9/2020
14:59
QuePassa,

You have misread what I wrote.

Ofcourse there are lots of genuine concerns about lots of airlines (many of which might be going bust left, right and centre), however most of avation's airline customers are not in this position (16 out of 18 customers are flying and are paying rents), while the impact of the one airline customer that has gone into administration is 'manageable'. So it is misplaced to confuse concerns about the entire airline industry with that of a specific company (Avation).

Ofcourse all bond issues are 'not plain sailing' and any down grading can increase the interest rate on the bonds- however as the article in the FT yesterday points out "US corporate bond issuance hits $1.919tn in 2020, beating full-year record", the appetite for bond issues remains strong so it is unclear why Avation would not be able to refinance its bonds (even if it might be at a higher interest cost).

smegster
03/9/2020
13:42
well, good luck to you... although I am somewhat flabbergasted that anyone would describe wider concerns about the aviation industry as being MISPLACED. The global civil aviation industry has never been in such a catastrophic condition as now due to the unforeseeable global pandemic which has decimated air travel.

Could you kindly explain why you believe these concerns are MISPLACED when airlines have been going bust left, right and centre?


Could you also kindly proffer an explanation - if everything is as hunky-dory as you seem to suggest- why Fitch Ratings have DOWNGRADED Avation's credit ratings on TWO SEPARATE OCCASIONS this year from BB-(positive Outlook) to B+ (Negative Watch) in March and then again further downgraded Avation in May to B (negative watch).

In my experience trying to refinance a bond whose ratings have tumbled from BB- (positive outlook) to SINGLE B (negative watch) is not plain sailing.

Perhaps you think or know otherwise?


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

quepassa
03/9/2020
12:26
Hi QuePassa

Here is the latest Avation investor presentation, which deals with most of your points
hxxps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaORcWS1qok

"several aircraft in limbo."
"a very big haircut on the monies they are owed."
Slide 9 - Exposure to Virgin is manageable
5 ATR72-600's likely to be retained following restructuring
Of the 6 ATR-500s, 2 have been leased to other airlines and there is interest from European airlines for the other 4


"the question of refinancing next May's bond will continue to loom large."
Slide 4 - Continued support from lenders (e.g. key lending banks have adjusted loan amotizations).
- With 16 out of 18 of its customers flying (and therefore continuing to pay rent although some of this rent has been rescheduled), there is no indication why the company would not be able to refinance the bond.
- We do not seems to be in a credit crunch situation, where credit has tried up, the appetite for bond issuing still seems strong.


"....and the big question is that the aviation industry is not yet significantly recovering or rebounding and many countries are still tightening lockdown and travel restrictions."
Slide 10/3 - Avation has been affected by the wider aviation downturn but not as much as most companies due to it customer base
- provides planes for domestic and short haul flights - least affected by lockdown and the first to come back on-line
- has customers in Asia which have not been subject to lockdown
- provided planes for national carriers which have/are likely to receive government support

I am a holder. I am not worried by the drop in Avation share price, as I know this has due to (misplaced) wider concerns about the aviation industry and has not been due to company specific issues.

smegster
01/9/2020
18:20
following today's RNS, looks to me like a pretty tough situation.

several aircraft in limbo.

a very big haircut on the monies they are owed.


the question of refinancing next May's bond will continue to loom large.

....and the big question is that the aviation industry is not yet significantly recovering or rebounding and many countries are still tightening lockdown and travel restrictions.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

quepassa
01/9/2020
17:30
& AVAP did not confirm finals publication date.
I was expecting Jeff to delay them when he saw the ratios.

russman
01/9/2020
17:29
& AVAP did not confirm finals publication date.
I was expecting Jeff to delay them when he saw the ratios.

russman
30/8/2020
06:37
Also be interesting to read the dialogue for POST YEAR-END EVENTS as a lot has happened in the industry in the last two months.
quepassa
30/8/2020
04:25
Finals may be published this week.
Interesting to see what has happened to yr end valuations.

russman
26/8/2020
09:23
Looks like Bain Capital are front-runners to win Virgin Australia for A$3.5billion.

Decision date scheduled for 4th. September Creditor Meeting.

Likely that shareholders will get nothing but secured creditors will get 100% according to press reports.

Highly-regarded Bain Cap have a reputation as tough negotiators and if sale goes through, will in my view likely squeeze the pips with their bankers, financiers and suppliers going forward:-

hXXps://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/bain-capital-offer-3.5-billion-virgin-australia-creditors-vote/12592742


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

quepassa
16/8/2020
11:15
It is about survival. It must be cheaper than the current Bond redemption rate.
russman
16/8/2020
10:08
#2525. Sale price means little unless we find out the interest rate in the sale and leaseback agreement.
cc2014
14/8/2020
15:42
Great idea. Why doesn't AVAP raise some cash by offloading some planes/leases to BoC(ommunications).
russman
14/8/2020
12:05
See EasyJet sold some planes, sell and leaseback, for significantly more than their initial guidance $771m vs $500-600m and notably the last tranche was sold significantly above their net book value £203m v £167m.
fastbuck
06/8/2020
07:58
In my opinion, it would behove the Company to provide information about its strategy for refinancing the May 2021 $350million Bond Issue.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

quepassa
05/8/2020
20:00
The bond discount is saying someone is going to get a haircut.
russman
05/8/2020
19:25
Maybe. Maybe not.

The Company wrote this in their April Trading Update four months ago:

"Avation’s management believes that provided the economic and travel impacts of the
pandemic can be mitigated within the next 12 months, Avation will be in a position to continue to provide leasing solutions to its airline clients and create continued value for its shareholders. "


That statement contains an interesting proviso and each must form his own opinion about the on-going health or otherwise of the global aviation and travel industry.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

quepassa
05/8/2020
18:40
That's one side of it. Avation have of course stated that all their assets are extremely prudently valued and they will have no trouble re-leasing the plane or selling it for book value.

Thus, the market is mis-pricing the debt.

...

cc2014
05/8/2020
18:07
Interesting post.
quepassa
05/8/2020
14:44
We are all so polite.

Jeez 70p in the pound equals around 60% return on annualised basis.

Which is telling me the bonds are going to have to be reconstructed. And that means shareholder pain too.



ARticle out today in the press saying Virgin Australia is going all Boeing. Not sure how that fits with today's RNS

cc2014
05/8/2020
13:54
Maybe. maybe not.

What is your view please as to why the bonds are currently trading in the low 70's?

quepassa
Chat Pages: Latest  139  138  137  136  135  134  133  132  131  130  129  128  Older

Your Recent History

Delayed Upgrade Clock