Avast Share Discussion Threads

[pireric] 12/7/2018 08:25

This may be cheap but I wonder what sort of people pay for anti virus nowadays. Not sure if many young people do. Would suggest that long term will erode. Same with VPN - more willing to pay now but surely just commodities away into a free purchase

[aakash30] 29/6/2018 17:02

Yeah I have been long for the last month. I have it trading at 10x 2018 EV/EBITDA and 10x 2018 P/E. Seems cheap on an absolute basis and relative to peers with similar growth rates. The freemium market has taken significant market share from the paid AV market.

It has the highest operating margins in the industry at 54% due to its low cost base (60% of employees based in CZK) and as a result revenue/employee metrics look stellar compared to peers. I think there is still significant room to grow with cross-selling and up-selling to its significant user base (~435m users!).

Also as the company begins to pay down its debt with its FCF, AVAST will look even cheaper on EV metrics

[jgoold] 22/6/2018 08:26

Bought in today with a small starter position.

[petrman] 14/5/2018 20:23

Avast/Avg ( both are independent products trading under one roof, think Peugeot/ Citroen as an example ) is a big name in my native Czech Republic. A typical example of zero to hero success story ; both founders started from a garage etc.I like the facts that although there is a debt the company makes good profit. Also both founders are still involved with the business. Yes, they try to sell an upgrade in any opportunity but the basic software which comes free is itself very good product.

[masurenguy] 14/5/2018 11:47

Thanks for setting up the thread bamboo2. My value and momentum criteria should contrast nicely with your charting criteria to provide a broader perspective on the prospects here and your technical indicators could prove to be invaluable in determining good entry and exit points.

Avast is currently on my watch list. I already hold NCC but unfortunately passed on Sophus after their IPO so I'm looking at this new sector opportunity with considerable interest.

[bamboo2] 14/5/2018 10:36

Mas, thank you for the input here.

Sogo, Being chart led, an IPO leaves me at a severe disadvantage!
Thanks for your contribution.
You echo what some others have said over on the value thread.


My inclination is to wait for the dust to settle and for some sort of reversal pattern to take place.

I use the product on both mobile and laptop and like it. I am aware that they have been actively attempting to sell upgrades.

Part of the sales pitch has been to announce when threats have been detected and successfully removed. It is reassuring.

[sogoesit] 12/5/2018 14:38

Thanks for the heads-up on another thread bamboo.
I don't usually do IPOs at early stage... too much uncertainty about pricing and perceptions.
Cyber security is a hot topic so coupling it with AI and learning seems a potent mix.

There are a lot of exceptionals and adjustments not to mention haircuts and reversals to wade through to get to underlying profitability!! There are some big numbers in all these adjustments which makes me wary.
Not to mention the limited float as stated by masurenguy.
Taking the adjusted $408m EBITDA at face value that makes the IPO price at 7.8x EBITDA earnings. That seems rather low so must investigate why.... Work in Progress.
(Is it "cheap" or is it cheap for a reason?)

I will be waiting to see how the pricing action settles down first tho.
But must say that with limited float there is an awful lot of overhang to be sold down by the founding shareholders... and, since they are selling out at IPO, I am sure they will be tempted to keep selling down. That is not a good place to be imv.

Caveat emptor for the time being.

[masurenguy] 11/5/2018 17:59

A total of 82m shares have been traded during the first 2 days following the IPO. This represents circa 34% of the shares in the public domain (240m) and 8.6% of the total number of shares in issue (952m).

[bamboo2] 10/5/2018 23:30

TexasPete2's alternate 21,55,255 smas