Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 23/10/2017 09:45

Going bust doesn't affect existing contracts or assets already floating around up there - they just get taken over by someone else!

[top tips] 23/10/2017 08:09

I doubt they could ever go bust because they have so much defence contracts with governments including the UK. Regardless of what happens commercially they will always be kept afloat somehow even with the debt. So at some point it becomes a buy and I doubt if it will go lower.

[jeffian] 22/10/2017 23:08

>> The primary reason why the share price is down is because of 3 Factors>>
1. Very high Debt to Total Capital Ratio of the company>>
2. Problems with HYLAS 3>>
3. The market assuming that theConsent agreement will not be obtained from the loan note holders>>



Errrr....
4. Because they have missed every sales target they ever set themselves and have trouble filling the capacity they have, never mind new sats?

[profw] 22/10/2017 14:04

ProfW
Posts: 95
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 8.135
RE: Hylas 4
Today 13:46

That comment by "Headinthesand" is exactly like some one's thoughts with their Head in the Sand...

Without any basis.. Devoid of any logic or supporting evidence.

All my assumptions are extrapolation of current facts

The Capasity is 28 Ghz = 28,000 Mhz

The company's fleet utiliation as a fact is 40 % to 35% >> Page 6 of

The company's Yield per MHz per month is $1,600-$1,800 >> Page 8 of

In fact to be conservative I had taken both the LOWER figures..

One must understand why AVN is Where it is Before assuming that because the share price is at an ALL TIME LOWS it is doomed to fail

>> The primary reason why the share price is down is because of 3 Factors>>

1. Very high Debt to Total Capital Ratio of the company>>

Debt to Total Capital ratio of 84.55%

But what is important is It is FAR FAR a lower figure than the previous year's 249.90%

2. Problems with HYLAS 3>>

The satellite is being built for the European Space Agency (ESA) by Airbus Defense & Space

In Early 2017 it was discovered that there is a major problem with the Ka-band payload on HYLAS 3

That equipment has had to be returned to its manufacturers, MDA Corp., of Canada

The technical problems mean that the satellite is not likely to be launched until mid-2018

Which is two years later than originally planned

As a result the share price dived down from 20p levels to this all time Lows

3. The market assuming that theConsent agreement will not be obtained from the loan note holders>>

As a result AVN shares were knocked down to it's all time low...

The market had valued AVN as a write-off till Now.

That very same reason is why the reversal should happen..

Since the possibility of AVN's immininent demise is no longer a possibility

I am only hinting that

with such a massive possible revenues from Hylas 4 of £ 143 Mill annual revenues

With 6 new contracts worth more than 40 mill USD already in the bag just in 2017,

With the Democles sword hanging on AVN now removed..

The possible upside is truly astronomical ompared with the risk

Agree this is not for widows and orphans...

But with a possible upside of 1600% and a Probable risk of 25%

we are talking about a risk reward ratio of 1 : 64

That is not to be sniffed at

Reply | Recommend 1 | Report

HeadInTheSand
Posts: 1,156
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 8.135
RE: Hylas 4
Today 12:23
Erm....

For the sake of balance, there are a number of massively positive assumptions in ProfW's post. An equally massively negative take on the same metrics quoted would be "AVN demonstrably can't sell 65% of its existing capacity... ergo it needs more capacity and the requirement to finance the OpEx of such like it needs a hole in the head."

IMO, both views are far too simplistic/black and white and the eventual truth will lie somewhere between those two wild (and staggeringly widely separated) extremes.

Reply | Recommend | Report

[colin12345678] 22/10/2017 11:42

Did any one calculate the potential revenues after Hylas 4's launch?

It's Massive

Hylas 4 capacity === 28,000 MHz

fleet utilisation === 35% >> From 2016 Annual Report

Assumed utilisation === 9,800 MHz

Yield per MHz per month === $1,600 >> From 2016 Annual Report

Estimated Annual Yield from Hylas 4 === $188,160,000 == £142,698,662

No wonder the note holders are willing to give their consent

That's the only way they will be able to recover their massive loans and recover their moneies

Presently their debentures are trading at up to 40% discount

AVNL4056402 trading at $78.96

AVNL4135098 trading at $98

AVNL4441690 trading at $60

[colin12345678] 22/10/2017 11:41

After more than 20 mill USD New contract wins... Not One but 6 different new contract wins this year...

...With a 50 Plus percent revenue growth from existing top 20 customer group year after year...

...with an anticipated growth rate of 402% to 2020 of Africa Middle East

... With a New HYLAS 4 satellite scheduled for Launch in March 2018

...Hylas 4 is way way more advanced bird than it's predissors

... It has 66 high-throughput Ka-band beams positioned over Africa and Europe

..In addition It also has 4 steerable beams to provide communication in Ka bandwith over Latin America

...It has a 19 year life span..

... The satellite will deliver up to 28 GHz of capacity

... Now with a consent agreement inplace...

..Having visited the All time low share price of 6.5 p just a couple of days ago

It seems that AVN's share price is bound to sharply climb..

once more people research into AVN and it's down fall from the lofty hights it was trading

[craffert] 18/10/2017 23:38

Debt £489mn.
Equity £10mn.
Negative cashflow from operations of £70mn
Burnt toast.

[ilovefrogs] 17/10/2017 10:44

Like, it's been shot and put out of its misery perhaps.....? ;-))

[mjcferguson] 17/10/2017 10:20

Surely we must get some encouraging news sometime?.

[lukead] 01/9/2017 14:24

Come on the MOUSE, a blue day. Who would have thought.

[djflay] 29/8/2017 12:10

Hylas 4 booked for launch March 2018 enabling to reach geostationary orbit 90 days early,wow.
I'm more concerned with the years of failure than 90 poxy days and what happened to Hylas 3 someone drive a forklift into it?

[lukead] 23/8/2017 13:23

Where is that super ramping git M'Mouse these days ?

[deadshot is back] 07/8/2017 14:09

wakey wakey??

[cgod] 01/8/2017 07:33

May be jakNife, but as I said at this level Risk/Reward could be MEGA....

[ttny2004] 31/7/2017 18:14

When this breaks out of continued downtrend coupled with solid supportable results this will climb very quickly. On my watch list for momentum play.

[cgod] 27/7/2017 21:35

Risk/reward could be mega on this one.......

[me and debbie eat frogs 4 breki] 27/7/2017 19:02

C'mon

How long can u kick this sick dog?

brekkie frogs for everyone if we hit 20p.

I did not realise this had £1bn mcap at one point.

now 15m

You need balls of steel to buy distressed assets.

Not for orphans and widows


Me and Debra are always doing it.


pray for us. !!!!!!!!!!!!

[cgod] 23/7/2017 07:44

Hi guys taken a small punt on this, you never know what the future will bring.

[buywell3] 06/7/2017 09:33

Chart to retest previous lows soon ?

And some idiots were ramping these on other boards years back at over 300p

[ilovefrogs] 05/7/2017 17:26

Stock's on a knife edge here - I reckon they have to generate $250m of annual sales just to generate sufficient EBITDA to cover interest and depreciation charges, so that's before shareholders get anything at all and before the Company has a cent to actually start paying down the debt. The Debt trades at 60 cents on the dollar which is extremely distressed for securities which are right at the top , and of the capital structure, the equity has fallen from £1bn to £15m. This is like betting on the horses, which can be fun, but you wouldn't really want to put serious money on it would you....?