Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[garymott] 16/11/2014 09:26

Megabear, how do you know? Are you involved in the commercial discussions?

[jeffian] 16/11/2014 00:32

It's a funny old world, isn't it, when you've got ebola to deal with but the focus is on whether you can all send selfies to each other!

As an AVN shareholder, I'm all for it, of course, but it makes you think........

[buck581] 13/11/2014 20:24

That's how markets work. Rise in anticipation of good news. Fall back when it comes.
Just MM's fiddling around.

[jadeticl3] 13/11/2014 13:31

I read this with greater enthusiasm than the market did, judging by the fall (albeit small ) in share price on this news.

Or is it simply that the shares have had such a good run recently that the news was about what sensible folk had expected.

Is there enough here to allow a continuation of the rise in share price over the next three months, or is a hold at this level as much as we can expect just now?

[chriscallen] 13/11/2014 07:11

Q1 Trading Update


13 November, 2014

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(RNS)

Avanti Communications Group plc

Q1 Trading Update

London – 13 November 2014. Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN, “Avanti” or “the Company”), the satellite operator, has published today its trading update for the three months ended 30 September 2014.



Key developments
•22 new contracts in the period
•Significant progress with large scale African education market: three new projects awarded
•New defence customer signed, and the first 4G cellular backhaul service deployed
•Finalised procurement contracts for HYLAS 4 under budget by $50m
•Launch of three unique industry technical innovations to widen competitive advantage



Financial highlights
•3 month revenues of $15.5 million as guided previously
•3 month EBITDA of $(2) million
•Cash at period end of $143.2 million
•Net Debt at period end of $372.3 million
•Backlog at 30 September 2014 of $420 million
•Average days on pipeline continued to improve to 87 days
•Repeat rate remains over 50%

Commenting, David Williams, Avanti Chief Executive said: “The key to our business now is continuing to sign the highest quality customers who will distribute the products in increasing scale; to support their growth, keep them loyal and ensure that we have strong long term relationships. We do this by focusing on the quality of our product and the way it is delivered by our people, and by maintaining flexibility to unique customer requirements in each local market. If we continue to get this right, strong profitability will follow.”



Chief Executive’s Commentary

During the quarter we signed 22 new contracts across our four sectors. We now have a total of 149 customers.

Backlog at the end of the quarter was $420 million having taken $15.5 million from backlog to revenue. As we guided at the full year, the fourth quarter included some large project revenues. These one offs can be expected to occur again from time to time, and are associated usually with either the systems integration elements of large complex transactions or one off capacity sales of steerable beams - there were none of these in Q1. The new contracts signed, in what is generally a quiet Summer quarter, were primarily framework in nature, resulting in this modest fall in net backlog from the year end. However, with the repeat rate remaining above 50% and the average time prospects remain on pipeline continuing to fall, we are confident that our distribution strategy is working. Customers sign framework contracts more easily than large upfront commitments and delivering experience of our product is the most powerful form of advertising for us, usually resulting in increased orders. This was demonstrated by 16 contracts in the period from existing customers expanding capacity in existing or new territories, whilst 6 were brand new customers. Our service providers were awarded three new large scale schools projects in the year (exclusive to Avanti but revenues are not yet in backlog). We signed a new defence customer in the period, and deployed what we believe to be the World's first 4G cellular backhaul service, only shortly after our World first 3G service was announced earlier in the year. We have also seen new interest in inward investment into African Internet projects from a number of large international companies, so our market is developing well.

We concluded the initial funding of HYLAS 4 in June, since when we have finalised the procurement contracts with Orbital Sciences and Arianespace, which will more than double our total fleet capacity and complete our sub Saharan coverage. The efficient procurement of the Satellite and Launch has generated significant savings on our original HYLAS 4 budget and as a result the balance of the financing requirement, through junior capital and High Yield Bonds, has also been reduced. Initial marketing has resulted in strong reaction from existing customers for the new beams and we expect to expand many customers’ existing contracts to cover new HYLAS 4 territories.

Avanti competes in the market not only based on the exceptionally low price and high speeds that are a function of the use of Ka band, but also on the quality and flexibility of its technology. Avanti's unique variant of Ka band is based on over 60 separate inventions, many of which are patented or patent pending. During the period we continued to enhance the system with the introduction of three new technologies. A proprietary "SNG" booking system makes it easy for Outside Broadcasters to flexibly deploy low cost capacity, building on the success we saw with broadcasts from South Africa this year. A new smartphone installation tool which also works with Google Glasses was deployed to make the installation process deskilled and faster, which is crucial when aiming for scale in markets like consumer broadband. Finally "Multi-Beam VNO", a unique technology enabling Avanti customers to share capacity between different beams and geographies, was launched to a warm reception from our customers, because it makes their investment more efficient in the early phase of deployment. Through constant customer focused innovation, we are maintaining the competitive advantages that keep customers loyal to our managed service approach.



Current Trading and Outlook

Avanti has gained an unparalleled reputation for Quality and Flexibility with both new and existing customers. Even in our quietest Summer quarter we signed 22 new contracts and we expect that momentum to carry forward into the next quarter and the year as a whole. Some of the new contracts in respect of which we will recognise revenue in the next quarter will have set up costs associated with them and generate similar margins as those in quarter one. We still have selling to do to achieve our growth target for the year but there are a dozen large projects at RFP stage or beyond that can help us to achieve this, as well as good signs of existing customers growing strongly. We are getting the fundamentals right and building a strong base.

[sg31] 11/11/2014 16:51

A nice big contract win would do nicely.

They never give the figures though so that's unlikely.

Just have to sit tight and be patient.

[jadeticl3] 11/11/2014 15:35

It is doing quite well without the impetus that good news would bring wilksey1, but where will that good news come from?

[wilksey1] 07/11/2014 12:38

any good news released by avanti now would see this fly threw the 300p mark and beyond.... only being hopeful, but it will come thats for sure..

[2350220] 07/11/2014 10:54

They've probably made their 5 or 10% and are all patting themselves on the back!!
John

[wilksey1] 07/11/2014 07:50

now blackrock holding is 0.50% so maybe there be completely out today good ridence i say,, the other two are still at the same amounts..

[wilksey1] 06/11/2014 10:52

blackrock has reduced from a high of 1.40% to the present amount of 0.68%

jp morgan has reduced from a high of 1.53% to the present amount of 1.37%

and the dim wits in the class are ennismore who increased from 2.24% to 2.48% at a price of 190ish so there well and truly under water and there the profesionals lol

[yupawiese2010] 06/11/2014 10:30

Here are the disclosed positions.

Fund manager

% short

Change

Date changed/created


BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited 0.80% ↓ -0.15% 2014-10-31
Ennismore Fund Management Limited 2.48% ↑ 0.24% 2014-10-28
JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd 1.37% ↓ -0.16% 2014-10-24

Total 4.65%

[bigkahunaburger] 06/11/2014 10:18

I checked the FCA short selling disclosure website today and NO-ONE has increased a short position for two weeks, only decreases are shown. And if you read the Avanti Preliminary results statement it clearly said they plan to finance HYLAS 4 in the debt market next year. So I dont know where you get your information from but I cannot make it tally up to the public domain facts?

[revoman] 06/11/2014 08:25

Jeez, surprise surprise Rogk's record is back on the turntable...

[greedy rooster] 05/11/2014 18:50

Blackrock are reducing short but two others are increasing.......I'm thinking that they could be seeing increased demand due to Ebola as travel to the affected countries is stopped.I would also expect the co to take advantage of sustained share price strength to raise the extra cash for Hylas 4.....no doubt Jefferies/Cantor vying for the brokership and fund raise.

[nugacity] 05/11/2014 17:30

Sid we are thinking about different periods. I am thinking from Summer 2010 to Spring 2011 where the price halved during good news from both the technical and sales fronts. It was too early to be late on delivery.

Subsequent falls were for many reasons (sense and nonsense) but the fall from £7 to £3.5 was during the Caledonian uptake in shares (to 15%).

Caledonian shedding many of those shares recently explained a drop or two.

[wilksey1] 05/11/2014 15:41

in auction could be good

[j777j] 05/11/2014 14:20

Must be ripe for a bid as several years have passed in which they have now proved the systems.

[sidam] 05/11/2014 11:32

Nugacity
Like you I did not sell at £7 and have not sold any since then Actually I have bought more as I still think that there is serious upside especially if the Chairman's projections that the fleet is capable of generating 500m of EBITDA were proven correct.

However, I disagree with you on the reason for the fall in the share price. There are/were two parts to the business plan. The first was to finance and launch satellites, which so far has been met. The second part was to sell out the capacity in a timely manner. Originally that was expected to be within 3 to 4 years per satellite. The second has been missed and it is the fact that revenues are much lower than expected which has driven the price down and proved the bears correct.

So the fundamental question is whether revenues generation will take off. There have been some remarks which could lead one to that conclusion. The comment on why HYLAS 4 was planned could be a pointer. But the fact that revenues are much lower than originally expected means that the DCF values and target prices have been substantially reduced. However, the numbers could still justify an eventual share price of over £10 in my view.

The indication that Q1 revenues will be in line with the average for last year is somewhat disappointing, but from then growth should accelerate. That is why I am still a holder and why in the long term the bears, I hope, will be wrong.

Good luck with your and my holdings!

[nugacity] 05/11/2014 11:16

jade - your 'shorters nervous and holders hopeful' clearly matches up but I was not replying to a particular post having read quite a backlog on this thread.
I am a little surprised at the lack of comment across all the boards (iii, lse and here) but perhaps I am not - good news rarely reflects in the share price - so maybe we are all holding our breath.

[jadeticl3] 05/11/2014 10:43

Nugacity, to which statement are you alluding?