Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[jojaken] 19/2/2014 10:31

Megabear -

To quote from the last results - "As shown in the exchange table in note 10 some balance sheet items have moved materially because of exchange rates with dollar sterling period end rates moving from 1.521 at June 2013 to 1.657 at December 2013."

Cenkos would have surely been using the exchange rates used by Avanti themselves at the time they released their numbers as their two notes came out within days of the said results.

If my assumption is an assumption to far, my apologies but made in all good faith.

[jeffian] 19/2/2014 10:21

Thanks, sidam. They can't have been that "exceptional" otherwise they'd have been stated as such! Certainly one would expect to see COS fall as a % of sales which is why I was surprised to see them almost identical on increased sales. As you say, let's hope the pattern emerges as expected going forward.

Appreciate your efforts.

[sidam] 19/2/2014 10:12

Jeffian

I have had a chat around to try to find out guidance on COS. Here it is!

There were exceptional costs on Mobile Backhaul in EMEA in H1. H2 COS should be about the same but next year should decline. But remember most of ground station cost is GB£ or Euro so there is a currency translation element.

HYL will use the same ground stations so COS should fall as % of sales.

[megabear] 19/2/2014 10:02

Jojaken - dunno where you get your numbers from but rate was 1.57 when Cenkos note came out in Sep. Last time it was anywhere near 1.50 was briefly in July 2013; blink and you missed it.

£50 x 1.57 = $78.5m vs. $72.7m now.

So $78.5 vs $72.7 or £50.0 vs £43.8, take your pick but not exactly going the right way. And yes the results were dreadful.

[wilksey1] 19/2/2014 10:02

ok mega thanks but not lazy as i was reading this
www.techradar.com/news/phone-and-communications/all-3-customers-to-be-migrated-to-vodafone-by-august-30-1156333

[jojaken] 19/2/2014 09:53

Megabear - the exchange rate at the time of the September note was approx 1.50 instead of 1.67 as of today. on that basis there is very little change in Cenkos's figures. (Which is surprising given the dreadful results of a few days ago!)

[megabear] 19/2/2014 09:43

Wilksey1 - you're quite the lazy one:

and

hxxp://www.hutchison-whampoa.com/en/media/press_each.php?id=2514

It probably is a new contract, all I'm saying is that we've been down this road before, in Ireland, when what appears a big contract, with a decent name is announced and then it disappears into the ether.

CaribbeanRob - I don't have a link but I have the actual note. When last note was out in Sep 2013, Cenkos had £50m of rev and £16.7m of EBITDA for 2014. Note from 12th Feb 2014, saying $72.7m (£43.8m, assuming $:£ at 1.66) of rev, and $20.7m (£12.5m) of EBITDA for 2014.

[wilksey1] 19/2/2014 09:28

since when

[caribbeanrob] 19/2/2014 09:28

Megabear - do you have a link to Cenkos previous guidance please.

[ttny2004] 19/2/2014 09:28

True, but key is relationship and opportunity for further business.

[megabear] 19/2/2014 09:26

Which has a partnership with vodafone

[wilksey1] 19/2/2014 09:01

mega i think your find hutch is the 3network

[megabear] 19/2/2014 08:53

Does this contract start this financial year? Don't look like it as I see (from Revoman above) Cenkos haven't raised their 2014 numbers. In fact, they've cut 'em!

[michaelmouse] 19/2/2014 08:45

As they stated in the interims, Avanti are building a quality customer base from a quality service. This is always a crucial factor in any decision I might make to invest in more speculative stocks, but is often overlooked by the more naïve investors ;).

The implications of having quality companies signing up to use your service are manifold and priceless. That's why they released the RNS this morning. You only need to think about the message it sends out to other potential customers and investors, backers etc.........

Well done to the management on securing this contract.

Michael.

[peterblok] 19/2/2014 08:43

Vodaphone RNS which is good, but again no clue on figures!

[count chris] 19/2/2014 08:31

T1ps.com rated this a speculative buy at 215p after the interims. Evil states he shorted at 230p on the 12th so bound to be shorts to be covered as we approached 220/230.

[count chris] 19/2/2014 08:14

(my reply relates to megabear)

[count chris] 19/2/2014 08:12

That would have expired or been renewed in 2012 so timings don't suggest there's any link.

[caribbeanrob] 19/2/2014 08:10

I thought that the company had previously advised that it would no longer announce individual contract wins. However, my understanding that an RNS must be announced if there is price-sensitive information which may enter the public domain via other means.

Customer volume and revenue earned on products is highly commercially sensitive in the telecoms market as it impacts competitiveness and call pricing. There's no way a contract would be signed without a confidentiality clause relating to the volume and price information remaining confidential.

The company is in effect saying that entering a 3 year contract with Vodafone is worthy of an RNS - ie it expects the share price to be sensitive to the contract news. Being a fixed cost business I don't see how this could possibly be a negative impact.

Anybody who sees this as negative is only seeing what they want to see. Or what they want others to read.

All above is my own opinion.

[megabear] 19/2/2014 07:59

As big as this?

[count chris] 19/2/2014 07:59

And growth potential going forwards must be massive. They could probably saturate most of Avantis beams single handedly if they wanted

[divinausa1] 19/2/2014 07:55

you can guess the size of the contract, Vodophone are a massive company its not gonna be a itsy bitsy pidly ammount

[count chris] 19/2/2014 07:55

The CEO comment implies this a new relationship IMO