Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[conorarmstrong] 30/10/2012 11:26

@rathlindri totally agree. it's prob a long term hold to be honest. I can't see anything radical happening for a year or two though. book for hylas 2 is prob still way behind and overheads at moment are pretty high. next set of accounts going to see a big write down for depreciation on h1 & h2.

better prospects out there at the moment to move my money into. may revisit this stock next year.

with the lack of news from these guys about contract wins (this stopped last year), the only thing to ponder at the moment is what nightmare is going to be in the next results or interim results. at least a trickle of news about contract wins would keep the share price bubbling away, but that's not happening.

as the dragons say, "I'm Out"

[rathlindri] 30/10/2012 10:36

connorarmstrong, I know how you feel. I did the same last friday and sold out, taking a loss of 40% on the chin. At least I don't have to cringe at more losses as I would have been doing yesterday and today....a sad end to my/our "investment" in Avanti. I had high hopes at one time. The share price seems to be in a downward spiral and no news from the bod to stop the fall. A great pity.

[n3tleylucas] 30/10/2012 10:05

One small step eh?

[conorarmstrong] 30/10/2012 09:55

just dumped my entire holding. sick to the teeth of this company. enough already.

[nugacity] 29/10/2012 16:35

RNS out which I can hardly read on my notepad - blooming Adobe is so popular but not with me.

[rathlindri] 28/10/2012 19:08

LazyJ, time, as always, will tell, I'll be watching.... ;-)

[lazyj] 28/10/2012 17:11

rathlindri,

Did your "soul searching" take account of the fact that shorts doubled from 2m to 4+m during the past two weeks?
Was your costly mistake to buy, or to sell at this moment?
Thanks for your good wishes. We need all we can get!
:-)

[buywell2] 26/10/2012 15:17

Oh ye have little

But then again I never did

[rathlindri] 26/10/2012 08:46

Well, sorry to say I sold up this morning after much soul searching...when you have no faith in an investment it's time to let go. A costly mistake for me I'm afraid. Good luck guys.

[nugacity] 25/10/2012 13:00

Never mind new contracts. Jeffian?

Ideally all contracts would be for immediate take up .... but the longer term ones are steepening the supply/demand curve which may result in the diminishing supply being grabbed whilst it is still there.

I am optimistic that the chances of contracts being brought forward is high ... the idea of them stalling for years or quarters is hard to imagine?
Everybody wants the latest technology a.s.a.p. in our neck of the woods, and I cannot believe Africa and the East are going to be different once the options are are available. The cost will limit the reality but so it does here!

I have a nagging thought .... can the long term contractors stop us selling their bandwidth for the period leading up to the start of their contract? And if they cannot what an opportunity that might be for companies who are unsure of the future of technology?

Glass half full here!

[k0108356] 25/10/2012 12:51

Nuga I was crediting this years move from low>high on TA as that was my sole purpose for getting in at the lows and selling near the highs (80+%). Posted entry/exits if your in any doubt. I wasn't in before so can't really comment on why it rose to 700! :) I also did buy back in at 368 and sell out at 335 over the last 2 months.

[nugacity] 25/10/2012 12:44

K you credit TA for the #1 rise to £7 but I think it was a lot more to do with RHPS and other forecasts of £13 and £20+ if the launch went well. It did and some more!

We now have #2 safely in operation as well ..... if they announced #3 is going to crash the share price would be worth more than it is now .... but the odds are in favour of #3 being successful too.

I have 3 stocks which take up 90%+ of my holdings .... all 3 are looking good, but all 3 are in limbo ..... no wonder I need a wig!

[jeffian] 25/10/2012 12:38

Nugacity,

My point is that the market isn't going to be too impressed with new contracts until they see that cash is flowing in from existing contracts as forecast, particularly after the last statement that "the phasing of Backlog is more back-ended than expected". This share was talked up on the promise of massive revenue flows. We're now at the point where they've got to stop talking about it and start delivering it.

[k0108356] 25/10/2012 12:23

Jonnib, directors buying was a very weak "tick box damage limitation" exercise. As for Singapore govt buying into AVN, well great, good luck. A market is made up of both buyers and sellers and unless they've turned AVNs chart upside down or they've been reading another set of RNSs I don't see why. AVN may well be a stonking buy at some point but there will be an opportunity to buy at prices lower than today.

[jonnib] 25/10/2012 12:16

It seems that the footsie entry is all on track and wasnt it also reported quite recently that the entry price point for footsie regulations needs to be around the £3.65 level to satisfy market cap? The company have also stated that the reporting of new contracts etc are also tied in to foosie entry so it seems to me that although the reporting of the accounts was unexpected and perhaps badly communicated it was necessary.... I`m confident and happy to wait for an update in November and all the directors and the singapore government are very happy to purchase more? That sais it all for me really and the newbies on here are simply trying to drive a price down to re buy

[nugacity] 25/10/2012 12:11

Cash coming in with no contracts is some stunt.

[k0108356] 25/10/2012 12:10

Hi AllMost of you have known me for my posts on AVN this year. My thought's are that as myself purely being a TA trader AVN had a great year from the bottom to the top. The TA drove that move, nothing fundamentally changed within that timeframe. However a couple of weeks ago a whole can of unanswered Fundamental questions emerged which even your staunch AVN supporter would have concerns over. I don't need to go in depth on these fundamental questions, I just look a price action. One bit of advice i'd give is don't try and catch this falling knife, IMO we'll see 150 before we see 400 (I hate predictions!). Those looking at buying wait for confirmation this clear downtrend is over (I suspect it won't be for a while). Much better to buy higher into a rising trend than a falling one. A friend of mine who first highlighted AVN to me a few years ago and a is a true fundamentals man sold out his 50, 000 position last week resulting in a loss of well over £200k. He has held AVN for a number of years and decided to bite the bullet. We've always disagreed on Fundies v TA and entry/exit prices but one thing we've both thought is that AVN was a great share from a Fundies and TA perspective. WAS being the operative word, now it just looks broken from both aspects. Watch the next bounce, I suspect the shorter's and those who didn't off load the first time after that RNS will be off loading into any bounce. Kind Regards All

[jeffian] 25/10/2012 12:08

Never mind new contracts. What they need to show the market is the cash coming in as forecast. Oh, and not miss revenue forecasts by a mile without a by-your-leave. It's not that difficult.

[rathlindri] 25/10/2012 12:08

I'm down 40% on my SIPP "investment" in this....hindsight is wonderful etc but how I wish I'd just put it into a nice income fund now...when do we expect news on this, next month sometime?

[nugacity] 25/10/2012 11:48

Too much is being made of those director sells imho.
I guess they could not give advance warning that they need some money to live on but no doubt they did. School fees, mortgage payments, Sunseeker to fuel etc...

It is annoying that the lack of justification for the sells was not forthcoming anymore than news of the adjusted accounting practices that recently created another whammy.

Perhaps I am being too kind ....

A very long RNS showing a multitude of new contracts is needed to restore confidence. I should have sold up before now but that RNS, or the short list that is more likely, makes that too risky for me. Surely one must be due?

[rimmy2000] 25/10/2012 11:20

I have since backed out of most of my position. Still hold a bit, as a 'punt' but I think this may go lower and I want to see the results of HYLAS2 takeup before commiting.

Management do not instil confidence by selling high and subsequently re-investing substantially less once the price falls by a factor of 3 (or thereabouts) Sure they have invested recently, but nowhere near the sums that were made during the £7 sells.

Equally they have a policy of refusing to answer email queries from PIs. Again, this does not instil trust, and without trust PIs won't put forward their hard-earned.

Avanti have a decent product and USP but that alone won't make it. The leaders don't appear to be savvy to the needs of a public quoted company.


As I say, hold a few as a punt but sold the majority of mine now.

[jonnib] 25/10/2012 10:51

And the prize for the biggest bell end goes to.........buywell2 the master de ramper lol

[buywell2] 25/10/2012 09:38

Directors need to step up to the plate again

Perhaps the Government Of Singapore is now waiting for 230p or less before buying more for a cheaper price

[jonnib] 25/10/2012 09:35

Good to hear Yorgi.... I'm on a boat load of more 14 hour days so no time to really look into things but I'm still confident for the next year or to. I have thought about selling the lot with a view to get bak in at a later date. Thinking about going all in on GKP. Risky to go all in but the end outcome has to be a positive one!!

[rimmy2000] 25/10/2012 09:32

aggregate position mof director buys and sells since 2007.

If it doesn't display well, I can message across,. if required.

Sum - Deal value|Investor name|
Deal type|C R Vos|D A Foster|D J Bestwick|D J Williams|F E J G Brackenbury CBE|I C Taylor MP MBE|M O'Connor|N A D Fox|P S Walsh|W P Wyatt|
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
purchase |£9,970 |£287,900 |£304,340 |£654,390 |£319,170 |£4,860 |£9,880 |£82,880 |£134,300 |£75,000 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
sale | | |£981,000 |£2,860,000 |£923,000 | |£421,000 |£280,000 | | |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
total |£9,970 |£287,900|-£676,660 |-£2,205,610 |-£603,830 |£4,860 |-£411,120 |-£197,120|£134,300 |£75,000 |-£3,582,310.00