Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[rathlindri] 18/10/2012 15:11

jeez, things are bad when it gets to discussing football results on here...says a lot!
Are we likely to have any positive news updates any time soon that might halt this share price slide??
Like some others I'm seriously considering cutting my loses and taking my money somewhere else... :-(

[jojaken] 18/10/2012 10:51

Does anyone have any idea what proportion of the shares have been shorted now?

[nugacity] 17/10/2012 22:02

Electrical storm arrived - anybody know why we lost the Sky signal for maybe 20 minutes?
Luckily freeview on terrestrial was still working so we still had our programme.
Sky back on .....

[nugacity] 17/10/2012 18:58

Couldn't have done it if I tried!
Apparently thunder storms predicted for Poole tonight - goes with sunny day maybe - will there be flashers everywhere?

Nets, Congrats on predicting 1-1 scoreline for England's game!

[n3tleylucas] 17/10/2012 13:55

all the ones?

[nugacity] 17/10/2012 13:47

Speedway fans!

Tonight's finale at Poole is postponed until Friday!

What is going on? The sun is shining today. After last night's Polish fiasco it is getting increasingly difficult to plan leisure time!

[nugacity] 17/10/2012 13:25

Cheers Gary.
I am not a subscriber so I'll keep my eyes skinned on here - sounds painful?

[garymott] 17/10/2012 13:17

TB said on October 11 he would be talking to DW "on Friday morning, so will have more on this next week".

TB sends his updates out on Thursday evenings, so we should hear from him tomorrow.

[nugacity] 17/10/2012 12:55

In the UK we read from left to right .... £7 here we come :O)

If the board had warned that the accounting methods change was going to show a £2m profit as a £5m loss and the reasons for that change - the drop have been less severe. That news is now loud and clear. Has TB met with DW yet? And, if so, has he published his opinion on the future?

I want to top up but probably in common with the rest of you - I don't where the trough is - I love pigswill :O)

[buywell2] 17/10/2012 12:00

I think not .... the recent news has been received by the market in a negative way as can be seen by the fall in SP

On no positive news the share could drift lower and another H&S pattern set up take shape as it did at the time of the first red circle

If it does .... then the RHS will be in the 250p area

[nugacity] 17/10/2012 11:55

Move the first red circle left to 2010 and you might be right ;o)

[buywell2] 17/10/2012 11:51

Chart shapes tend to repeat I have noticed

[nugacity] 17/10/2012 11:38

Sharing mobile phones between employees so they are all up to date looks like a whole problem? Sorry Mrs X you query is currently on holiday in the Seychelles!

[nugacity] 17/10/2012 11:34

I am fascinated by Eddie's knowledge of Africa.
I never realised they had bank accounts - how do they deposit their livestock if they are wealthy enough to own some? As for online banking, a mobile phone is not big enough to withdrawn an ox is it?

And has he seen the typos we see from mobiles on these boards? I cannot see businesses communicating much on them - reading graphs will wear the scroll buttons/controls out and the sender will be wanting a response before the receiver has reached the edges. And they'll need fantastic memories!

Security services will also be keen to use a mobile phone network - ffs!

[colva] 17/10/2012 11:20

Simon ,

Re. black and white hats .

The best i can do is - 7 certain to go free and each of the remaining 8 having a 50% chance .

[peterwaller395] 17/10/2012 11:06

ZAKs TA

Avanti Communications (AVN):

While it may be the case that bulls of Avanti Communications may have plenty to shout about on the fundamental front, as far as the technicals are concerned there are currently two strikes against the stock. The first is that last week there was an unfilled gap down through the black 200 day moving average now at 310p, with the second being the consecutive end of day closes back below the former June 281p support. While there is a chance of a bounce to fill the gap, as things stand we should probe lower.



Looks like a bit more pain to come - in the short term

[geheimnis2] 17/10/2012 10:05

"I have taken out a small short position"

Lol - talking your own book then - quelle surprise - taking a leaf outta cawky's book

[garymott] 17/10/2012 09:50

Eddie1980, see the 4th bullet under the Financial Highlights:-

"Strong sales momentum - the average monthly target of £11m new Backlog continues to be achieved."

Is this not clear?

I was in a remote place last year; the Seychelles where you had to pay for internet access at 5* hotels and even then it was painfully slow (and expensive).

[colva] 17/10/2012 09:24

I think it's worth pointing out that Lucian Miers is a close associate of Simon Cawkwell .

[cestnous] 17/10/2012 09:22

Well I've given up on this one. Machinations of management are too opaque and there are better places to put my money in the current market. Out at a loss but you can't win them all.

Best of luck to everyone else.

[buywell2] 17/10/2012 09:18

AVN are doing deals in Nigeria

I wonder if they get paid upfront ?

[someuwin] 17/10/2012 08:53

Sharecrazy

"Avanti Communications (AIM.AVN)
by Lucian Miers

There has been a fair bit of controversy over the last few years between bulls and bears in Avanti Communications, which sells satellite data communication services to telecom companies. The share price has been volatile, peaking around at 700p in December 2010 and trading now at 280p after some disappointing prelims were announced the other day.

Avanti owns two superfast Ka-band satellites (Hylas 1 and 2) and has a third, Hylas 3 in the pipeline. It has a backlog (total value of contracts signed for sale of services) of £248 million and a pipeline (contracts under negotiation) of £552 million and it intends to increase backlog by £11 million per month. Hylas 1 and 2 are expected to be fully utilised by 2016 and Hylas 3 should be launched in 2015. The principal target markets are Africa, Caucasia and the Middle East where there is very little fixed line broadband infrastructure and therefore enormous scope for growth in satellite services.

On this basis, say the bulls, the shares are ridiculously cheap given that AVN is valued at £307 million and could be generating around that in free cashflow in a few years time.

I can see why this looks an attractive proposition but there are a number of caveats noted by bears which should not be brushed aside.

AVN's business model is obviously highly dependent on the ability of its customers to deliver on the contracts they have signed. Here there are a few red flags, say the bears. To give an example: in December 2010 AVN announced a £1.3 million contract with a company called Filiago, described as "one of Germany leading internet service providers" stating that "we expect the relationship to become much larger than the first order value".

In the accounts to June 2011 the company records under "other financial assets" a loan of £9.1 million to a major strategic partner (Filiago) and in the following interims Filiago is accounted for as a subsidiary. Whichever way this is spun, lending to customers is usually a red flag. It is known as vendor financing.

This may be a one off but given that the company stated "We made good progress in broadband in Northern Europe although Southern Europe remains challenging" and Filiago ( Northern Europe) reported a profit of Euro 28,000 on sales of Euro 3 million and is effectively now owned by AVN, one has to wonder about the financial strength of some of the Southern European customers.

Another point the bears pick up on is that in the last annual report the company said that "We have received a preferred offer of highly efficient debt financing to complete the construction of Hylas 3. The financing offer rests upon the successful pre-sale of significant capacity" In the event the company financed Hylas 3 by way of a £75 million equity placing, prompting the sceptic to wonder whether conditions on the "highly efficient debt financing" were not met.

AVN has a debt facility of £205 million repayable over seven years with the first payment due in December. To date £170 million of this facility has been used. It also has £75 million in cash which would fully fund Hylas 3. In the year to June 2012 operating cash outflow was £12 million so it certainly has a few years to prove itself.

As to the management, CEO David Williams is a man who Evil Knievel describes as bombastic. When Evil publicly shorted AVN stock in Feburary last year Williams thanked him for the opportunity it afforded him to pick up £100,000 worth of shares at the (then) giveaway price of 549p and invited him to lunch. Indeed the bulls point out that directors have spent significant amounts of their own money acquiring stock in the market. Against this should be set the whopping director sales in December 2010 (Williams parted company with 407,000 shares at 710p then, dwarfing any subsequent purchases).

In a Telegraph diary piece ( ) in August this year entitled Space Craft or Space Crafty, Katherine Rushton jokingly refers to the lengths Williams went to in the early days to secure a £900,000 contract. Bears might argue that this does not set a very good precedent.

All in all a fascinating battle between the believers and the sceptics and one to be enjoyed from the side-line. My gut reaction is that the Avanti story will not have a happy ending and I have taken out a very small short position with the expectation of many twists and turns as the drama unfolds."

[eddie1980] 17/10/2012 07:48

Well, having been to Tanzania, namibia, south Africa and Kenya all on different trips over the last few years to some quite remote places, I was amazed at the ptake in phones plus the availability of signals. My point is these areas will bypass fixed broadband as the mobile technology will allow it so you should not compare the fixed line infastructure.

Have you not thought how archaic the system we use in the uk is needing a fixed line telephone to use the internet?


gary - I must have read your post wrong, for a moment I thought read you say the had 11m of contracts a month. I suggest you re-read their last results.

[djmozy2] 16/10/2012 23:49

Bear in mind that South Africa is one of the better African countries. Also have copper cable theft. If you want to do Wimax, you pay 25 pounds per month for 512kbps. If I was still in SA I would go for a stable satelite connection any day. Running a business - its a must.

[djmozy2] 16/10/2012 23:27

Eddie1980 - I grew up in South Africa so no all too well how things work. For one thing you pay a fortune for the privelege of 1mpbs broadband and then every month or so phone lines get struck by lightning and you have to wait a month for telecoms company to sort out the line. Everything goes at a snails pace. You might get 4G in major cities but if you're out of a major metropolitan area you're looking at dial up speed Edge or if you're lucky 3G. If you are inside a metropolitan area you'll pay a fortune for 4G access which you pay per GB. Satelite is far cheaper.