Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[thx1138] 17/6/2011 12:24

I like to take a contrary view, from what I can tell there is a great deal of nervousness in the market, a lot of people are moving back into cash, price are depressed and there looks to be an increasing amount of cheap stocks about.

Therefore I'm moving from cash back into shares.

[backmarker] 17/6/2011 12:11

a few points to consider:

1. space latency, which I take to mean the extra time delay caused by the signal having to travel from "earth to satellite to user" or the other way round.

if the satellite is able to provide an uncongested service, then the space latency delay is probably less than the congestion delays I currently get in heavily populated Hertfordshire.

2. individual user as customer.

a lot has been made by SC's "advisor" re. rates for individual users and how competitive they are. but, as has been pointed out frequently, this does not appear to be the major part of AVN's business ( - and even then, if I have understood it correctly, it only serves this market by selling blocks of capacity to resellers ).

it would appear that business and govt/military are the more important sectors for AVN, and that there is a lot of scope here for offering value-added service rather than raw capacity.

3. competitors launching more satellites.

it's not clear to me that the increase in capacity, launched or announced, by competitors is that huge to seriously impact AVN's ability to win customers at satisfactory rates. by all accounts, at least in the short term, demand is likely to outstrip supply for good satellite broadband.

4. technology change.

this is likely to be the biggest risk in the medium term, but I see the prospect of something coming along that would knock satellite broadband from its niche very quickly is low. technology advances usually take years to implement economically and widely.

5. geographic coverage

I understand AVN's coverage for future satellites is moving predominantly eastwards, to areas where population density is much lower. surely this means that competition from terrestrial alternatives will be limited by economics ?

clearly AVN's future profitability is not a slam-dunk, but it's difficult to see it as poor. the director buying certainly provides some reassurance that the shares are good value. I wish I had some spare cash to buy more myself.

[thx1138] 17/6/2011 11:11

Well I've taken a few.

[restassured] 17/6/2011 10:54

Someone rightly pointed out that the end of the world, only happens once.

Put/calls are near extremes.

Everyman and his dog is bearish and "worried about the markets."


Nearly always a great buying opporunity.

[superg1] 17/6/2011 09:40

Just to let you guys know I live in an area weher we don't have cable. We have BB etc.

Tooway have doen a big ad in the local paper re a 10mb service. I presume they have done this in every 'not spot' local paper.

For your info

In fact if you folow this link and click the drop down menu re 'where did you hear about us' it cover all the newspapers/mags advertised in

[thx1138] 17/6/2011 09:39

Anyone care to pick where the bottom might be, I'm seriously tempted at these levels to take quite a chunk.

[superg1] 17/6/2011 09:17

Simon you were obviously tracking my 350 call lol.

I suggest you have a punt on Futura (long). I expect to make more than £100k with far less than you invest.

Remember where you heard the tip

[djmozy2] 17/6/2011 08:44

SC has closed his short, get em while they're unrealistically cheap.

[restassured] 17/6/2011 08:13

Peter Lynch always said you buy stocks, not markets.

[tsmith2] 17/6/2011 07:59

given that SC was part of a broader "bear attack" on the stock whether the others intends to follow suit..

could create some decent upward pressure..

think they will..

[gorvachof] 17/6/2011 07:48

Oh! I bet thats cheered some of you up :)

[someuwin] 17/6/2011 07:39

Cheers Simon - I agree, am nervous of the market at the mo.

[simon cawkwell] 17/6/2011 07:31

someuwin,

Doubt it. I think this market has got the wobbles - it is very hard for stocks go up. I only bought Avanti back since I wanted to clear the decks to attack juniors on Nasdaq. This requires no distractions.

Simon Cawkwell

[tsmith2] 17/6/2011 07:27

SC

Well done and I ask the very same Q as someuwin..

[restassured] 17/6/2011 07:26

If these directors continue to invest every last penny of theirs into the company,maybe we should be following them.

I doubled my holding yesterday.

[someuwin] 17/6/2011 07:24

...Well done SC. Will you now be going long AVN?

[kimball808] 17/6/2011 07:24

Sweeeeet...

[tsmith2] 17/6/2011 07:16

more dirs buys..

[chrissey] 16/6/2011 20:54

well, I think that was a good answer yorgi, whether you are closer to the mark this time, time will only tell.

I feel that i should sell some other holdings and top up but I can't see anything changing the price now ahead of Hylas 2, nothing other than a bid that is, I suppose this becomes a more realistic prospect at these prices?

DW couldn't buy if that were the case so I guess this is some way out although word does tend to spread around easily, right!

[yorgi] 16/6/2011 20:28

Yes Buck and somehow I think David Williams knows that as he has been prepared to put another £98,700 into the company.

[buck581] 16/6/2011 20:13

The lump of sky that Avanti "own" must be worth the market cap. The sellers must be crazy.

[yorgi] 16/6/2011 17:33

Quite right Chrissey I have been wrong all the way down up to now.....but the bottom has got to be somewhere or thats it as it were ! If you have any belief in the technology and AVN's business plan and accept that the directors know whats going on in the company, that they do not like throwing their money away then this will turn around.

The question is how much of it is now doubt in AVN, shorters or the general market fall of many AIM stocks. Only time will tell. I would have added today had I funds spare. Mind you I admit thinking around 500p ish was a good time to add :-(

[chrissey] 16/6/2011 17:26

famous last words yorgi, you have been calling the bottom all the way down, probably reach a few new milestones before we are finished, right!

[yorgi] 16/6/2011 16:31

They do of course and I would think in 6 months to a year you will be very happy Levi