Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 23/5/2011 12:32

Yorgi

A few other things you said


yorgi - 2 Dec'10 - 09:33 - 2001 of 5659


I have to say I did not expect the share price to drift down as low as this......


What price was it then YORGI. Just above 700./

I rest my case you muppet

[johnrxx99] 23/5/2011 11:47

superg1 - 23 May'11 - 11:27 - 5656 of 5657 (Filtered)

superg1 - 23 May'11 - 11:32 - 5657 of 5657 (Filtered)

[superg1] 23/5/2011 11:32

On the 'why am I looking at Avanti'.

I like to learn how the market works and unfortunately AVN is a share being manipulated by the shorters. I'm keeping an eye on it to see where they exit and where the price turns.

That and a cross reference with PDX may give me a clue on the calculations they work off.

I'd rather learn by others mistakes not mine.

To finish the investor that asked me advice re AVN.

I told him to sell Monday post launch between 8 and 8.30. He has yet to buy back in. Not a bad call I'd say for a beginner

[jeffian] 23/5/2011 11:04

superg1,

I have no idea where the share price is heading short term - in a bad market any company whose earnings are some way in the future is bound to be vulnerable - but what you say about RNS's simply isn't true. There is absolutely no obligation to announce every single contract and there is nothing 'price sensitive' which would prevent Directors' dealing unless events moved away from previous guidance ("The contract backlog and pipeline give us high confidence that we can achieve the three and five year sell out targets we set ourselves.")

[jonnib] 23/5/2011 10:47

Superg you fool no one. You have de ramped this for months and claim never to have bought any shares. You must have a lot of time on your hands to research this stock to the lengths that you do. Maybe you should spend more time researching PXS where on the 6th of May you posted a link which didnt work concerning coca colas interest in fruit flow.....this information was years old?? One quick google would have shown you this? Yet you continue with your ill informed comments week after week after week going round in circles??

Any serious investor needs to flag this person as someone to be ignored...that is unless you are a shorter or ramper.

PS.... as much as many people on here would like to see the back of you its false to suggest you have been berated amoungst other things. Quite the opposite posters have been very respectful in replying to your numerous deramping attempts with well informed answers, you simply wait a week and re post the same tosh.

[superg1] 23/5/2011 10:03

Jeffian

' being price-sensitive information '

That's exactly my point, they have to release RNS's if the information is price sensitive.

As said the contracts are expected so why mention the little ones that they have???.

All talk of a big contract to send the price north, and hope for an RNS of that nature, which in theory makes it price sensitive if you believe the hype crew.

The posters on here can't have it both ways. Either they have to accept the hylas 1 contracts are priced in and the share was well over priced (for Hylas 1) in the 700's, or news of big contracts will move the share, thus making them price sensitive.

If the US military were talking to AVN about taking huge swathes of their capacity then the directors couldn't buy now imo.

So the conclusion for me based on the info availble suggests further down from here. I've been saying that since the first day post launch and have the scars and wounds of the hype crews response to my outrageous suggestion that it was going to head south.

It's heading for the 350 (berated for that too) but for the true PI's that got caught out by the hypesters I do hope it doesn't and they make oddles of cash.

However I expect they need to go a long way north from here just to break even

[superg1] 23/5/2011 09:35

It's gone quiet guys which doesn't breed confidence.

I was just about to say it needs to stay above it's support levels 399 and 393.

But it's crashing through, the closing price is key as if it breaks that support level it will go lower seeking the next support.

Best of luck

[geheimnis2] 21/5/2011 12:09

good post jeffian

i would also alert posters to other situations - for example PDX - where lies spread by Cawky have temporarily depressed the share price which has then rebounded significantly as his rubbish is discredited

this will also be the case with AVN where he is clearly speaking unadulterated hogswill and knows nothing about the company

[jeffian] 21/5/2011 11:57

5645,

"Don't forget Directors can't buy when price sensitive news is due, especially big news. They have dipped in recently so I can't see big news any time soon and it will continue down."

That is to misunderstand the restrictions on Directors' trading. Directors cannot trade during any 'close period' (the 2 months prior to announcement of periodic results) or when they are in receipt of 'inside information', being price-sensitive information which is known to them in the course of their work, but not the wider market. I assume it is this latter point which you are referring to. In relation to AVN, the programme of anticipated sales is already in the public domain so their knowledge of specific contracts is no bar to their dealing.

[jonnyno1] 21/5/2011 11:23

Superg, to be fair, avanti has hardly over promised and failed to deliver which is what you have been blogging quite a lot about over the last few days. FUM on the other hand, which you would have to admit, has over promised quite a lot timing wise about CSD 500. Although through no fault of their own it would seem.

i am a long term investor here and in FUM. Rationally i should be relaxed about avn, they have delivered and by all accounts are delivering, and nervous about FUM, CE mark well overdue, but im not, im concerned that there is something amiss with avn and that CSD500 is a 'shoe in' Confidence is a wonderful thing.

here's hoping there is nothing amiss in either camp.

j.

[jazza] 21/5/2011 11:10

superg1 - 21 May'11 - 07:07 - 5645 of 5647



I think that misses the point a little in that, what seems like an orchestrated bear-raid, doesn't need bad news or delayed good news...all it needs is NO NEWS..

Until some news arrives, Corkchop and his crew don't need to be proved right about AVN's operational fortunes, they can profit on the uncertainty regardless.

[garymott] 21/5/2011 10:49

Geheimnis2,

The exact same potential news items sprung to my mind when catching up on the thread this morning. I have one another; a takeover offer (which has happened before) which surely even superg1 accepts would be at a significantly higher share price and that it is independent of the directors' recent buys (which I would also describe as 'substantial' rather than 'dipped in'!)

[geheimnis2] 21/5/2011 09:51

i am not sure the downtrend is continuing - but i think i was suggesting that the strong bounce would occur once one or more of the items i have mentioned occur.

in my view downside is now pretty limited and there is significant upside potential

IMO - DYOR

[superg1] 21/5/2011 07:07

Geh

Nice response, it's good to see a reasonable response to questions.

What you have posted sounds good but if it were all correct why does the downtrend continue???.

The stock market is littered with companies that make big claims and fail to deliver.
Don't forget Directors can't buy when price sensitive news is due, especially big news.
They have dipped in recently so I can't see big news any time soon and it will continue down. imo

[geheimnis2] 20/5/2011 20:22

superg

the US military contract for Hylas 2 (half the capacity would fill i think)

hylas 3 financing completed at attractive prices

july trading update with large backlog, pricing better than expected etc

all these things could be round the corner in the next month or two

(which is certainly what i would include as short term - apologies if you are thinking even shorter term)

if we get all of these - it seems like there is a decent chance to me - then the bounce would be significant

[superg1] 20/5/2011 20:13

Charts are all about history.

I have made the mistake in the early stages of investment that a chart going against the hype is wrong.

But in the vast majority of cases an 'unknown' appears against the hype and in hindsight the fall can be attributed to the unknown that appears..

Is this the case for AVN, who knows but the law of averages tell me something we don't know about is up. So I'd rather be out waiting to see what the issue (if any is).

While the hype crew may be in profit, it's a lot less profit than the Monday post launch.

How coincidental that someone should mention it went up in the 12 months before the hylas 1 launch. It has now hit that Nov 2009 price.

There is nothing in the short term, it seems to defeat the trend. It looks due a tick up but then onlky to drop below this level imo.

The SMA's are not looking too good either the 200 day average has just starting dropping too.

I'm not saying it's not a good long term investment but why buy on the fall. I can catch a plethora of previous 'bargain buy' prices that have been quoted on here when it's been on the way down.

Let's face it those on the fence are not going to be caught out by a 1 day 70% rise. AVN are not going to stumble across a fully operating KA sat that they picked up for a song to add to the fleet.

The strategy, likely market and revenues from that are known to a certain extent.

What ground breaking news are we waiting for. Not even the flood of contracts are materialising at the speed some expected.

[geheimnis2] 20/5/2011 19:10

rumoured margin call on one of cawky's other shorts PDX which is sky rocketing (sadly another example of cawky spreading lies about a company for personal gain) - could mean that cawky will need to close his AVN short (as well he should as trading fundamentals will see this rebounding post the July trading update if not sooner in my opinion)

[blackberrydrop] 20/5/2011 11:27

Superg1, for your guide, in the twelve months preceding launch of HYLAS 1, the share price went up 47.9%. We are twelve months form launch of HYLAS 2.....

[sg31] 20/5/2011 09:15

that is a ridiculous comment trading is all about speculation


But you aren't speculating because you don't have a position long or short.

Just here to save the poor suckers who are deluded in thinking this has potential

Yeah.Right.

[garymott] 20/5/2011 08:55

Superg1, your posts are not really worthy of a response. The past is history, only the future is of relevance now.

I could say what happens if the launch of Hylas 2 is brought forward etc etc so your statements are meaningless. I prefer to stick to facts (at which you are not very good at).

[superg1] 20/5/2011 08:21

On the point of speculating that is a ridiculous comment trading is all about speculation

'In a financial context, the terms "speculation" and "investment" are actually quite specific. For instance, although the word "investment" is commonly used to mean any act of placing money in a financial vehicle with the intent of producing returns over a period of time, most ventured money-including funds placed in the world's stock markets-is technically not investment, but speculation.'

[superg1] 20/5/2011 08:18

Gary

Post launch the hype brigade on here and iii were screamjng big rises and £10 plus.

I said woooaaaaaah hold on fella's it's above it's fully loaded ylas 1 price.

For suggesting such things I was targeted.

Forgive me for suggesting 350 but which way is the chart going. £3,50 is 12% away. The post launch high 700's is about 85% away but it should have been £10 plus if you read the posts.

So based on that a further 12% drop isn't so daft. What if AVN announce a Hylas 2 launch delay. Even then the launch is the best part of a year away.