Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[rwilliams57] 13/5/2011 20:53

yorgi

Investing surely is not being eternally optimistic, it's finding a company which has a modest share price, and excellent prospects. I am not sure avn qualifies on either of these criteria. The share price I have covered, the prospects are full of uncertainties.

[rwilliams57] 13/5/2011 20:49

Yes but on what grounds are you saying £10? At 420p, massive growth is PRICED INTO the current share price.

[yorgi] 13/5/2011 20:43

On the other hand if one is glass half full as opposed to the negative glass half empty type !

First Satellite launched successfully working better than specification and customers signing up faster than target. Life of Hylas one should be slightly longer than design.

Hylas well under way in the construction phase and launch scheduled for next year.

With sales of space on Hylas1 ahead of expectations, discussions going well for financing for Hylas3 which is well under way on in design stage.

Expected revenues over the next 18 months should be above the business plan. Profits will grow at a very fast rate over the next 18 months. Which will see todays share price far to low.

However if your a shorter or a negative person who gets pleasure from being half empty, gets pleasure from looking on the down side then follow the likes of

SC, superg1, druinsky, gorbvachof and rwilliams.

I'm happy to add at this price and see a good profit in a years time.

[geheimnis2] 13/5/2011 20:42

fair enough rw

capacity is filling very fast at attractive prices

management have said they aim to launch 12 satellites so they obviously see a big market opportunity

£10 this time next year in my view

[rwilliams57] 13/5/2011 20:39

Thw fact is that the company is not particularly profitable yet. It may be some time in the future, but gigantic profits are STILL factored into the price. Forward P/E of 45-60 depending on when you look at the price.

For clarity, forward P/E means the current price divided by next years expected earnings per share. This makes the stock very expensive indeed, not allowing for disasters like launch failure, competitive pricing issues, other technologies which may make inroads into the rural broadband marketplace.

Another much touted selling point is business continuity (backup of high speed data network). Believe me there are cheaper and more cost effective ways to do this than a satellite service.

Satellite broadband is the broadband of last resort. In terms of functionality, it will never be as good as terrestrial broadband (well unless the laws of physics can be overcome).

It clearly does have a niche, but that niche will become smaller as other technologies develop.

I'm out

[gorvachof] 13/5/2011 18:07

You asked what uncertainties were there, I simply replied with some major factors that are certainly uncertainties :)

[blue forever] 13/5/2011 17:03

Gorvachof-hang on there-financing for Hylas 3,well give them a chance to get Hylas 2 of the ground,successful launch of Hylas 2,well Arianespace have a pretty good record so odds are it will fly(if you took that attitude to investing you wouldn`t invest in oil companies in case of rig disasters which happen but are rare),future competition,well,plenty of demand to go around and also it takes years to plan and launch satellites. Read the trading update and unless the directors are lying, there`s plenty to be upbeat about.
However,having said all that,the share price is where it is and certainly confidence plays a big part in investment so the bulls will have to wait until the share price turns for turn it will!

[gorvachof] 13/5/2011 17:02

Thats my point. I was replying to someones post.

[druinsky] 13/5/2011 16:51

hasnt Evil got a price target of 1p here?

[geheimnis2] 13/5/2011 16:50

gorvachof

if there werent these uncertainties, the share price would be £25!

[gorvachof] 13/5/2011 16:47

Blue forever - 13 May'11 - 16:21 - 5548 of 5553
What uncertainty is there?

Er - Financing for H3? sucessful launch H2? £millions or revenues to book on new technology? Future competition? These are major factors!
Their business model has a long way to go before it diminishes any "uncertainty", dont let any bull tell you otherwise.

[arthurdaley69] 13/5/2011 16:22

The move down was a fat finger trade caused by an algo chasing missed volume on a gap down.
The stock subsequently recovered most of its gains.
However, the downward spiral and pressure is continuing and it looks like the bears are winning this battle.
I have this in my list of trading stocks and not hold and fall in love, and I think this is still a stock to buy on any weakness...certainly for a quick turn.
Good luck.

[blue forever] 13/5/2011 16:21

Don`t really understand this fall. What uncertainty is there? Avanti have already launched one satellite, Hylas 2 is on line and Hylas 3 is starting to be put together. Order book is filling up nicely with plenty more to come, the need for broadband increases every day worldwide, the military will certainly be interested when Hylas 2 is up there. I suggest if anyone wants more certainty then National Savings is probably the best bet for them,at least they will be guaranteed their 4-5 % because the stock market is definitely not for them.

[dailos] 13/5/2011 16:20

Quite right rwilliams, i wont short it yet, but i got out a while ago too.

[rwilliams57] 13/5/2011 15:42

I just sold at a loss of around 7k. One day avn might come good, but there is too much uncertainty around, and with a forward P/E of 55 I cannot see the stock recovering any time soon. If you add the short sellers who probably rightly believe that they can drive the price down, and the rampers/shorters like the T1ps website (which I think is disgraceful), avn is on a downward spiral. Pity, it seemed a good company, but it is stupid to get emotionally attached to a stock.

[hywel] 13/5/2011 15:22

Blimey that was a hell of a dip and i was out at the time.

[ca5hworth] 13/5/2011 15:09

well ... trend doesnt look good and worry over the markets means people are dumping all over ... look at SGP XEL etc...

[billytkid2] 13/5/2011 15:01

Anyone know the reason for the drop?

[meljohn] 13/5/2011 14:12

The number of shares on loan is at its highest for some time so it looks as if genuine shorters (those who borrow stock as opposed to those who SB or CFD) are still pretty active:

[yorgi] 13/5/2011 10:08

If it is then I apologise Druinsky

[druinsky] 13/5/2011 09:59

yorgi - yes it is 1p - look in annual report

probably exercised now ahead of a fundraising - institutions might not like options at a penny

[yorgi] 13/5/2011 09:48

Yes but no way were they 1p Blue surely

[blue forever] 13/5/2011 09:47

Not sure it is,options can be at any price though I`m uncertain as to why they chose this time to exercise them.

[yorgi] 13/5/2011 09:44

Grow up Druinsky we know that is a typing error