Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[peterpowell21] 11/1/2011 13:52

i nearly sold some of my shares this morning. but stopped when i thought about it. these to me seem to be a very good and well run company nothing has changed except the share price for me the decline in the share price was a reminder of lloyds when the share price fell from £6+ i watch them fall and hit the bottom without acting so a few nearths on my part was understandable.i don't think i will suther the same fate here.fingers crossed

[yespmedc] 11/1/2011 13:35

Latest note -

[hardrider8] 11/1/2011 13:00

Broker snap out today at 12.30 just reiterates what most of us here know anyway. Bought more this morning at 600, chart suggests we are on trend and looking to move up from here....

Equity research provider Equity Development values shares in UK-based satellite broadband group Avanti Communications at around twice the current level as the company is "now established as a credible operator in a growing market where demand far exceeds supply."

Avanti sells satellite broadband services to telecoms companies which use them to supply residential, enterprise and institutional users. In November, the group successfully launched its HYLAS 1 geostationary satellite, which is the first superfast broadband satellite launched in Europe.

With its first satellite in orbit, full funding is in place for the construction, launch and operation of its second satellite (HYLAS 2). Its third project has also begun (HYLAS 3), and Equity Development says that "Avanti is moving ahead to become a major player in this market."

The broker's revenue estimate for 2011 stands at £5.2m, whereas the in 2012 it is expected to be £28.1m. The target price is 1,319p, more than double the current share price of around 620p.

[restassured] 11/1/2011 13:00

You missed the two brokers that have price targets over £20.

[yorgi] 11/1/2011 12:56

Your right 2vdm the odd few pence will not matter much in 12 months time I'm quite sure. Yes, there are some very high valuations being quoted from some reports but I don't see the high ones being reached in the next twelve months. However if AVN achieve sales for Hylas1 quicker and greater than expected who knows.

I'm quite sure with confirmation that Hylas1 is service and I believe some have got confused between fully operational and in service, we will be heading north again. I do see £10 being quite achievable this year.

[jim claire] 11/1/2011 12:54

on sharecast says broker buy and 12 pound target , holding myself some shares and waiting for the share price to take off.

[2vdm] 11/1/2011 12:40

Agree yorgi. I got mine at 614p and missed the bottom, but I don't think that it will worry me too much over the next 12-18 months. There does seem to be "get rich quick" views out there about AVN with huge sps being quoted and I just can't see this in the short - medium term, even with some decent contract wins.

I think that we will see dips and troughs as we move through 2011 and a general trend upwards, with probably the pressure starting to build up as news re the H2 launch (due Feb-Apr 2012) starts to gather momentum. Inevitably short term buyers/sellers will then start distorting the picture again.

The real value lies beyond H2 and for any newcomers, I would be looking for an entry point now with a 2-3 year view at least. Within that context, the £20+ per share is in my opinion achievable and I have would pencilled in £15 for Dec 2013 to be on the safe side.

[yorgi] 11/1/2011 12:01

Good timing I would think 2vdm, Someuwin and anyone else who bought this morning especially anyone lucky enough to have caught the sub 600p

[superg1] 11/1/2011 12:00

Rest

You have me wrong, the only one I know who invested here was Weildy off iii. £500 worth on the Friday pre launch. he got out Monday AM.

Since Noted Pharma traded some too. He is a pro trader and he made a small profit.

I note some of the AVN iii crew are invested in FUM too now.

If you are a shrewd investor then take a look before the fun starts. I'm in there long term.

All that's happened here is I made the right call, but haven't invested or made a penny from it. Just need to see where it goes from here, it bounced well off the 585 support and quickly.

[2vdm] 11/1/2011 11:56

I agree too and added another 1000 shares this a.m.

[yorgi] 11/1/2011 10:53

I have no doubt it will Melody

[melody9999] 11/1/2011 10:48

MMs cleared out the weak holders with the shake below 600. I expect this to rise from here along the trend line..... I read forecasts of 1000+ and whereas you treat them with a 'pinch of salt', its when you keep seeing different analysts all coming up with such valuations that you start to take notice. I suspect this will prove to be a good buying point when we look back.

[restassured] 11/1/2011 10:13

Your friends must be getting slighty nervous.The share price could easily jump 100p in a day on news.

Then suddenly you won't be looking so clever after all.

Anyways I am not here to engage in tittle tattle with some anonymous poster.I will stick to those with a proven time tested track record,for my investment decisions.

[colva] 11/1/2011 09:56

I also bought this morning @ 6.02p .

I think the reason for the share price weakness is the perceived delay in Hylas1 becoming operational , i don,t think any of us thought that it would take until the end of Q1 to bring the sat online and the impatient are taking their cash elsewhere, for the patient the rewards will come , the fundamentals havn,t changed and it could be argued that the extended testing period could result in an increase in future revenue .

[backmarker] 11/1/2011 09:53

superg1

well done you. it's always satisfying if you can trade out and in successfully.

however, calling a top is not always easy. often you will sell too early, and after the peak it may not be possible to sell in size. other times the spike doesn't reach the level you were waiting for. or it may be you simply weren't able to monitor the situation for a day or two.

so if you can do it, then hats off to you and enjoy your skill and good fortune. but there's little to be gained from berating others that you "told them so".

pride cometh......

[restassured] 11/1/2011 09:47

nb Their tech fund has been number 1 for two years in a row.27 percentage points ahead of the next best fund.

Sure you have done well with your shorting syndicate recently.However just remember bears become a bulls best friend.

Wait for the mm's to invoke a bear squeeze.


Sayanora.

[someuwin] 11/1/2011 09:45

Bought back in today.

[restassured] 11/1/2011 09:41

You forget something called newsflow.There will be plenty of contract news coming up shortly.

One broker has a £25 DCF target price.

Not everyone is a punter,some people are long term investors.We cost average in using price volatility to our advantage.

All my shares are always paid for ,never punt on credit.Hence not bothered by short term movements.

Ps I trust one of the best tech analyst teams in the market, over some anonymous bb poster.

[superg1] 11/1/2011 09:35

£20 in 12 months you are nuts.

The analyst predictions hit 10 or £11 for Hylas 2 up the £20 doesn't come into play until Hylas 3 is up.

My friend sold as I suggested in the high £7 mark just after 8am on the Monday after launch.

I warned this would drop and urged caution on the hype but no. I also pointed out the 640 problem. AVN seems to be treading water at the moment.

At least the directors pocketed £5 tax free at the right time.

Remember my FUM tip. AVN over 20% down since then and FUM 20% up with the real rise imminent.

The 20 and 50 SMA lines are getting close to crossing for AVN which isn't good.

Why people sit and take the loss I don't know. What is the big news that will drive this drastically north right now????.

I hear the long term view but you know the timelines and share well. Use it to your advantage.

[restassured] 11/1/2011 08:35

Techinvest has Avanti as one of its top picks for 2011,so am using the sell off to add.

[2vdm] 11/1/2011 08:26

I don't think this is going anywhere just now, unless they announce a big contract
but the closer we get to H2 in March 2012, this will steadily go north. In the meantime I've topped up at 6.14 and am not worried if it drops a bit more as it has to be great value at around these prices.

[yorgi] 10/1/2011 18:55

Have just read the Equity Development note very thorough and coming up with a valuation of 1319p a share :-)

[yorgi] 10/1/2011 18:13

Good find StrollingMolby......what we like to see :-)

[strollingmolby] 10/1/2011 18:07

Today's Equity Development note:



or