Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[wilksey11] 10/7/2014 08:26

last years results were on the 10th sept not july

[jojaken] 10/7/2014 00:05

Avanti never promised to issue a statement today. There was never any indication apart from one website (who were clearly guessing) that there would be a statement. Previously, Avanti have tended to issue statements on or around the 10th and have tended for Wednesdays. No commitment has ever been made to that particular date however, and certainly not for Wednesday the 9th!

All we can be certain of is that an update is due soon. My guess is the 10th, tomorrow, but that's only a guess.

I hope it is tomorrow, and I hope it is a masterclass in clarity as clearly the shorters are out to have fun. There is no point in giving them chance to manipulate and deceive!

[count chris] 09/7/2014 18:14

Or is it just another organised shorting campaign?

[bulltradept] 09/7/2014 16:28

Mmmmmmm does someone know something?

[wilksey11] 09/7/2014 16:21

no mention from the company regarding share price fall of 10%

[buywell2] 09/7/2014 16:20

buywell2 13 Jun'14 - 06:31 - 342 of 361 0 1 edit

10% finance sounds twice as much as it should have been

Debt will be a big problem for this going forwards

Mkt Cap £315m on a turnover of £20m and loss making looks a recipe for disaster


buywell2 12 May'14 - 07:55 - 319 of 361 1 0 edit

''Precise forecasting remains difficult, given that we have grown quickly from a small revenue base and large contracts have a disproportionate impact on quarterly outcomes.''

[geheimnis2] 09/7/2014 16:19

hate to say it but shareprophets may have called this correctly

[bulltradept] 09/7/2014 16:17

Auction 10% down.

[wilksey11] 09/7/2014 16:02

there.s been no announcement from the company that there was due today a trading or end of the year update so shareprophets clearly got that wrong but below is from avn financial calender





As a result, it now publishes:


Quarterly Statement to 30 September within 60 days
Interim Results to 31 December within 60 days
Quarterly Statement to 31 March within 60 days
Annual results to 30 June within 120 days.

[megabear] 09/7/2014 15:58

Looks like Caledonian bailing

[bulltradept] 09/7/2014 15:49

No TU today, you got it on June 13. I emailed AVN for clarification.

[geheimnis2] 09/7/2014 15:41

any reason why down so strongly today? doesnt seem to be any news? shareprophets seems to be suggesting there was supposed to be a TU today? is this true?

[2350220] 09/7/2014 13:45

OMW what's going in with this share?

John

[bulltradept] 09/7/2014 13:05

Someone is and that doesn't currently look good for the coming update does it.

[megabear] 09/7/2014 12:28

Fair bit of vol today. Caledonian offloading more?

[akajimmy9] 09/7/2014 07:13

No trading statement then..

[count chris] 08/7/2014 08:09

£30k + trade and the price is up. Is it a buyer or a shorter closing I wonder...

[jojaken] 08/7/2014 04:24

If the trading Statement comes on Wednesday, which would be consistent with their preference for Wednesday announcements, what should we expect?

Revenue for H2

Low-end forecast


$30m (equates to 20% growth on $25m in H1)

Q3 revenue was only $14m making $39m for first 9 months. So $30m would be consistent with disappointing Q3 update! Consistent, and steady growth, but not what we need. This would be consistent with the recent share price movement.



Mid-range forecast

$35m (equates to 36% growth on $25m in H1)
This would mean revenue is back on track after disappointing revenue growth in Q3. It would be lower than forecasts made in February, but would be consistent with previous revenue growth of 36% from H2(12) to H1(13) but more importantly it would be 50% growth on Q3. Anything around here will have shorts scrambling to find bad news elsewhere in the update.



High-end forecast

$40m (equates to 62% growth on $25m in H1)

Where I'm shooting for, but I'm forever an optimist. Revenue this high would definately surprise most and finally meet in-house broker Jefferies' perpetually disappointed expectations. It would also justify David Putting-on-a-brave-face Williams' comments after Q3, "Our momentum is picking up and growth is starting to look more like a J-curve than a straight line." Anything around the $40m mark will surprise the market as Avanti has consistently dissapointed the market on the revenue side so this would be a first!

Unrealistist forecast

$45m (equates to 80% growth on $25m in H1 and 120% growth on Q3!)

Good God! Gives new meaning to J-curves! Forget Q3 disappointments.
However this will not happen. Q3 update and Moody's recent comments mean this is cloud-cuckoo territory!

[yupawiese2010] 07/7/2014 14:33

Courtesy of duckduckgo over at lse

Trading statement on Wed says Saxo markets

[wilksey11] 07/7/2014 11:03

another director buy

[bulltradept] 07/7/2014 07:48

Another win:

TIDMAVN

Avanti Communications Group Plc

07 July 2014

Contract win: Government contract win

-- ESER Telekom partners with Avanti for government contract
Turkish telco ESER Telekom has signed an additional capacity contract with Avanti Communications for delivery of a government contract in the Middle East. ESER will deploy Ka-band services in the Middle East for an international connectivity programme.

Tolga Sönmezalp, Board Member at ESER commented: "We trust Avanti to deliver the highest quality service demanded by our enterprise and consumer customers. Its HYLAS 2 satellite provides coverage of the key regions in the Middle East. Our imminent rollout is testament to the quality and flexibility of Avanti's Ka-band in providing resilient, cost-effective communications for governments."

David Williams, Chief Executive at Avanti Communications, added: "We are delighted that ESER has selected Avanti for a government connectivity contract. This win further demonstrates the quality and flexibility of our satellite network, meeting the needs of even the most demanding users. We look forward to further developing our partnership with ESER."

--ENDS--

[megabear] 05/7/2014 14:21

Thanks Jojaken - I'm not sure the shorters are out in full force this time. That 2 million share sale by Caledonian will have pulled the price back and I suspect they may be looking to exit it all. In which case they have at least 13 million more shares to go. I'm very curious why they decided to sell now.

[jojaken] 05/7/2014 12:30

Megabear - The update was on the July 10th last year.

If you look at the charts at the top of the thread its interesting to note we are almost exactly where we were at this time last year.

Clearly the Shorters are positioning themselves for a repeat of last year. I would guess a good number of those positions are already in place too as the update could be any day next week .

I am a little surprised at the determination of the shorters this time round though as the indications are a little clearer as Avanti had to get the bond sale away. But I can have a pretty good guess to the angle of attack though. I just hope David William's takes the initiative and puts out as full and as clear an update as possible.

[megabear] 05/7/2014 10:22

Avanti have clearly stated they extend credit and then the accounts have shown they have trouble collecting on that credit. To me that means giving away for free.

Any idea when next update due and if they're likely to detail the debt position?