Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[yorgi] 24/12/2013 10:07

2013 has not been a good year for AVN that is clear but at least the second half has seen a rise from it's low point in July. We can hope that rising revenues come through in 2014 leading to profits and the share price responds accordingly.

Happy Christmas and a Healthy and Prosperous 2014.

[count chris] 23/12/2013 18:35

Agree the company is mature enough now that we can start to judge it on cash flow and not just future hopes. Sadly I'm not convinced and already underwater here.

[jeffian] 23/12/2013 15:20

I don't think you can blame "publicists". It was the company itself which put out a Trading Statement including profit guidance which it then missed by a mile within weeks by publishing figures using 'different accounting treatment' and then missing forecasts again last year due to 'contract delays'. It needs to stop trying to excite people about 'forward sales' and just start delivering some good cashflow. Let the money do the talking.

[estienne] 23/12/2013 11:09

Perhaps next year Avanti will start to recover.

Its been seriously damaged by the false hopes and expectations put about by its publicists. It needs to demonstrate some degree of integrity before investors will have confidence

[yupawiese2010] 19/12/2013 22:15

Apparently - Avanti was positively featured today in an article in City Confidential.

Can anybody give me a gist of what was written ?

[yorgi] 19/12/2013 11:48

I'm off the hook then am I Sg :-)

[sg31] 19/12/2013 11:26

OK yorgi, looks like it's just a blip.

[yorgi] 19/12/2013 11:22

Sorry Sg.... :-(

[sg31] 19/12/2013 11:19

Now look what you have done.

[yorgi] 19/12/2013 10:36

Good to see the share price edging up again slowly.

[2350220] 19/12/2013 09:43

Hi Chris,
the ESA satellite will take just one of those slots.
But from all the blurb about Avanti ages ago, I understood that they had something like 18 slots.
So my question is, what happens to the rest of those slots (if indeed they do have that many) if they don't position a satellite in them?

Not losing sleep ovver it. Just interested, as I understood that they are actually worth a lot of money to the company.

All the best,
John

[jojaken] 19/12/2013 08:03

Wouldn't worry too much Rogk. This isn't much of Avanti's business. Tooway, which isn't Avanti, has this 'to-the-home' business in the UK for the likes of Bentley. Avanti's business IS overseas. Not to say that there isn't competition overseas, or even Avanti's winning that much of even that. But Avanti's future is Africa,then the Middle East, then Europe and finally the UK (but this will mostly be backhaul).Don't worry about BT.

[gekks] 19/12/2013 07:58

The domestic UK market is a very minor part of Avanti's revenue - carry on with your deramping.

[count chris] 18/12/2013 17:37

I think the satalite they have just acquired ticks that box?

[yupawiese2010] 17/12/2013 19:25

Avanti Comms - Acquisition of ESA Satellite Contract

Today (2013-12-16 16:24:45)
Print this Article

by James Faulkner

Avanti Communications (AVN) has signed a contract with the European Space Agency (ESA) to take over ownership of the ARTEMIS satellite. The company will assume ownership from January 1st 2014 of the satellite, which offers communication services with coverage of Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Avanti will pay nothing upfront and will assume modest operational costs which it expects will be offset by new revenues from the project. The satellite has fuel to allow operation to at least until the end of 2016 and still have sufficient reserves for safe de-orbiting at end of life. Artemis also provides Avanti the ability to offer a range of new Ka-band services such as data transfer at up to 450 Mbps to commercial and institutional customers.

Assessment & valuation...

This looks like a small but positive deal for Avanti. We retain the view that Avanti is potentially a very valuable business, although the investment horizon is protracted and subject to considerable risks. Avanti remains the largest emerging market Ka-band operator (targeting 83% of its capacity in emerging markets post the HYLAS 3 launch), and the secular trends underpinning the growth in demand for capacity remain in place. It is also worth bearing mind that the satellite slots Avanti owns could ultimately support up to 20 satellites, making the long-term upside potentially very significant.

House broker Cenkos argues that the current Enterprise Value (market value of equity plus net debt) of the group still doesn't reflect the build costs of the satellite fleet without taking any account of the value of the spectrum and aforementioned satellite slots which Avanti owns. "As the existing fleet moves towards full capacity," notes Cenkos, "EPS of 50p and beyond is a realistic target and our DCF is a multiple of the current share price." With the shares trading at 240p at time of writing (and assuming a future rating in line with sector peers such as Inmarsat), there is therefore the potential for a very large capital gain - perhaps in the order of several multiples of the current share price - over the long term, should the company deliver. Nevertheless, with such a financial performance a good many years out and presupposing that Avanti successfully jumps through a series of hoops to get there, investors should be in no doubt that this remains a highly risky and potentially volatile investment.

[jeffian] 17/12/2013 15:09

"jeffian 17 Dec'13 - 09:49 - 874 of 875 0 1 edit

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Oh dear. I see the thread stalker's back again. There really are some very odd people on these bb's!

[qs99] 17/12/2013 14:36

Edging up nicely....

[jeffian] 17/12/2013 09:34

There's a piece in the Times (Tempus column) which says "What the company is actually acquiring, at nil cost, is the slot that the Artemis satellite occupies. That slot can then be filled with four or five new satellites. Such assets do not come on the market that often."

[jojaken] 17/12/2013 05:22

Doing a bit of research on the Artemis Sat, I have to say I was not entirely satisfied with yesterday's press release. Very little *new* information came out. What a wasted opportunity! Matthew Earl asked some legitimate questions just before the AGM back in October. This would've been a good opportunity to answer some of those concerns publicly about Artemis. However on balance, I'm fairly neutral. While not terribly profitable, it is revenue enhancing and perhaps some of the contracts can be carried over when Artemis is decommissioned, to perhaps even HylasIII which should have come on stream about one year before. At which point, the ??£6 million?? of overhead costs ?will?/should drop out of the balance sheet. My guess, and it is only a guess, is that Artemis may even be slightly profitable this year. However, it will have higher costs and lower revenue in years two and three. So short term it may be flattering to the balance sheet. We will need to be wary of this in the next set of results and get some clear answers.

Incidentally, on a much more positive note, I came across a totally unrelated bit of news, which seems as yet to have been unnoticed.

Bentley Walker seem to be expanding their quite successful Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan Broadband offering 'Freedomsat' on Hylas 2 into South Africa. The Iraq contract was originally announced in excess of £1 million per annum and Libya, launched in January, has proved to be quite a bit larger by all accounts. The South African service should be launched in the next week or so, so will be interesting to see if there is any contract news at that time. Could this be a 5th contract in the space in a little over a month?

hxxp://www.icontact-archive.com/QiCcNJIlIn5UMaXHov5R5IvvzcVlmAkM?w=1

[jeffian] 16/12/2013 20:10

It always has been about "solid figures". AVN management have had a propensity to disappoint with little bombshells like "more conservative accounting treatment" and £10m delayed contracts being wheeled out unexpectedly so hopefully we have now moved into the era of a substantial and growing cash stream. That's what'll get the share price moving.