Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 16/10/2012 16:45

To link mobile base stations for one thing. This is the extent of fibre trunks in that region: not much good if you don't have a beach to paddle on.

[garymott] 16/10/2012 16:42

Eddie1980, you like so many others seem to think that Avanti's business model is based on consumer broadband only. This is incorrect. Less than 50% is consumer broadband.

If there is no need for satellites, who is buying the £11M per month of firm contracts for Hylas 1 and Hylas 2 services?

Also, superg1 stated recently that there are 30 more ka-band satellites to be launched before Hylas 3 (I don't know if this statement is accurate). So your premise means that all the companies who are to launch these satellites are wrong.

My guess is that they have done more due diligence and research on future demand than you.

[eddie1980] 16/10/2012 15:59

I think you are both underestimating the speed of change in countries.

You would have said the same about mobiles 10 years ago, but have you ever actually been to africa? I guess not. They don't have fixed cables for internet because they all use mobiles. You should see everyone, who to you or I probably looks very deprived, all have mobiles. They bank via mobile internet. In some ways they are ahead of western economies in trying this sort of functionality.

So, you are right, they probably wont ever have fixed fibre optic cables (outside major cities). But who needs them when you can just upgrade their mobile networks.

What was the need for satellites again?

[djmozy2] 16/10/2012 10:45

Was being generous by saying decade - make that decades, if ever

[djmozy2] 16/10/2012 01:31

Looks pretty good.


From the article
"On site in Afghanistan we have installed control stations and some customer terminals at Afghan Internet service providers to run tests of our broadband satellite Internet access Hi-Stream designed especially for regions like Afghanistan and other emerging countries. I announced the launch at CABSAT in March 2012. The results are very impressive and confirm our choice in favour of Avanti's Ka-Band satellite HYLAS 2 and Newtec's Sat3Play technology"

I know some shorters have been trying to harp on about satelite being old technology but in the developing and third world countries it will take them a decade to get decent internet speeds via fiber optic or phone masts. There is a big difference technology wise between 1st world and developing countries and the government generally don't have the funds to fix potholes never mind wiring up the entire country

[aishah] 15/10/2012 17:01

First ISPs Testing InSat's Afghanistan-based VSAT and Broadband IP Access Service on Avanti's HYLAS 2

[nugacity] 15/10/2012 15:35

Parachute payments of £20m p.a. would be nice :O)

[2350220] 15/10/2012 14:42

Ha ha, brilliant.
John

[jeffian] 15/10/2012 14:39

This share's a bit like that Baumgartner guy - takes 2 1/2 hours to get up there and 9 seconds to fall back to earth!

[disc0dave] 15/10/2012 13:18

I'm with you Gary, looks like we have definitely bottomed out for now on the s/p.

[garymott] 15/10/2012 12:48

With all the focus on the disappointing aspects of the full year results, it is easy to lose sight of the key financial progress as follows:-

1) Firm, contracted Backlog orders of £268M (2011: £171M).

2) New, firm orders being won at a rate of £11M per month.

3) No 'significant downward price pressure' on contracted orders.

4) A Pipeline of possible orders of £552M (2011: £473M).

With what I hope is all the bad news out of the way, I expect the Interim Management Statement in November to be positive and upbeat.

[buywell2] 14/10/2012 17:01

IF AVN are getting involved with 'end user' selling via the £9m and Filiago

Then I think there is reason for concern



* Myth 1: The set-up and running costs for satellite broadband are expensive

While this may have rung true at the time when the concept of satellite broadband was first introduced as a viable option, it is no longer the case today. What used to cost between £1,500 and £2,000 to set up has been dramatically superseded by a much smaller outlay of around £300, a fraction of what it was, and monthly service costs are further reduced; and yet the concept of high-cost does tend to stick in people's minds so it is important that any confusion is quickly demystified if users are to make a more informed choice in terms of how they receive their broadband connection. Equally, the satellite broadband market has become very competitive commercially, and many providers are racing each other to the post with new exclusive plans, free servicing deals and specially discounted rates.

[rwilliams57] 14/10/2012 16:54

Here is the ST piece about AVN

On the day that Avanti Communications' HYLAS 2 satellite came online to beam broadband services across the Middle East and Africa, its shares tumbled 65p to 283¾p. Because of a change to the way that Avanti recognises revenue, it revised the £17.8 million it announced in July for this year to £15 million. The "missing" revenue had been booked, Avanti said, and will be spread over the life of the contract.
Avanti's fractious relationship with the analyst community continued. After forcing Numis to apologise last year when it raised doubts about a contract, Investec published a controversial "sell" note. Now Megabuyte questioned the veracity of the company's order run rate. "Complete nonsense," Avanti's chief executive David Williams told The Times.

[rwilliams57] 14/10/2012 16:46

What I meant is I cannot see AVN reselling broadband. even by proxy.

The t1pa article is good and balanced, rather than the hype they used to peddle about avn

[buywell2] 14/10/2012 16:30

I would have thought that one business strategy ie 'satellite provision' paid better than the cut throat 'end user' market that Filiago represents.


Why have AVN taken a change of direction ?






rwilliams57 13 Oct'12 - 10:12 - 11066 of 11074

Could it be that AVN have taken a piece of Filiago ?


If that were true you would think they would trumpet it from the rooftops. It makes it all even odder



Geheimnis2 13 Oct'12 - 12:35 - 11068 of 11074

Good blog piece michaelmouse

Very fair

Rwilliams - Avn have effective control of filiago which is why the company is consolidated as a subsidiary.

Avn have already made this extremely clear.

[fig1] 14/10/2012 16:26

thanks Jeffian.Fig.

[jeffian] 14/10/2012 16:17

Yes, I couldn't see it first time round but it's in the "Director Share Deals" column of the 'Money' section. It just says that Directors bought shares in an attempt to "appease the market" after disappointing on revenues.

As we know, it didn't work!

[fig1] 14/10/2012 15:24

Hi Camila,where specifically?I can't find it.Fig.

[camiladasi] 14/10/2012 14:25

mentioned in the Sunday Times today - talks about the recent results being disappointing and mentions the director buys. camlad

[rathlindri] 13/10/2012 21:22

yes, it's all going swimmingly..

[someuwin] 13/10/2012 20:17

t1ps have also downgraded AVN to HOLD

"...We would like to see evidence that new forecasts can be adhered to and foresee a period of share price consolidation until such evidence is forthcoming. For the time being we downgrade our stance to Hold."

[geheimnis2] 13/10/2012 12:35

Good blog piece michaelmouse

Very fair

Rwilliams - Avn have effective control of filiago which is why the company is consolidated as a subsidiary.

Avn have already made this extremely clear.

[malcolmmm] 13/10/2012 12:06

Nugacity, I don't short and never have done
AVN is bit risky for me for now but sentiment changes quickly, will be intesting to see what happens, in the meantime there are plenty of others shares to lose money on