Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[nugacity] 11/10/2012 09:44

jeffian, I knew about the reporting practice changing but assumed they were extrapolating revenues for the period when #2 should have been 'live' but was delayed. I am not dumping my shares here so I don't need to trawl through RNS for the precise dates.

I am so relieved I cleared my T20's before the RNS - not clever and tbh I expected that to be a mistake. T20 on here is taboo for now .... not a clue where the price should be!

Our guys are learning on the job so they will make mistakes .... avoiding every word that will cause a nuclear explosion must be a nightmare!

[colva] 11/10/2012 09:37

superg

"It seems the blinkers are on and all that people look at are Hylas 1 to 3. Before H3 there are about 30 other sats going up with KA ability."

"All I'm pointing out is that the the life of the sats is 15 years, and no-one thinks tech won't have moved on in 5 to 10 years."


Are you saying that the owners of the 30 sats haven't put much thought into it and are making a big mistake ?
If there are 30 Ka sats going up then Avanti have first mover advantage in a huge market

[nugacity] 11/10/2012 09:30

iii seems to be down at present.

SP is looking grim ..... £2.74 / £2.78 .... quite a small spread for this time of day.

[jeffian] 11/10/2012 09:30

Nugacity,

You miss the point entirely. The trading update mentioning revenues of £17.8m was on 11 July, after the financial year-end, when they would have known perfectly well from their own management accounts what figures to expect. The reason given for the difference was nothing to do with "stalled orders" but a change in accounting practice which changed the way they recognise and report revenue. It seems to me they failed massively on two fronts; firstly in missing by a mile a profit forecast they gave only recently in the full knowledge of the then figures and, secondly, in not issuing an RNS explaining that they were going to change accounting practice and what this would do to the figures. (They clearly took that decision after the Trading Statement and before the Preliminary Results). Basically, they mis-guided the market and they're paying for it now. They talk of going onto the main market but, if they do, they're going to have to brush up their reporting procedures or they'll get their knuckles rapped by the authorities.

[nugacity] 11/10/2012 09:25

disco, I agree completely. The wealthier families are likely to have sent their children/adolescents away to be educated, probably to areas where they are likely to have broadband. Those youngsters will find it hard to live at home with no broadband, and will know the benefits it can bring to local businesses.

Companies in the UK took a long time to wake up to it, but they had no experience to draw on. The African/ME countries will learn very quickly if they don't now already how it can raise their profile in the market place.

[nugacity] 11/10/2012 09:14

melody, the technological advance came after #2 was tested of course.

They predicted 9GHz frequencies would be possible through space but achieved 11Ghz - at least they erred on the side of caution.


jeffian,
And as for the shortfall in expected revenues it is fairly obvious that the delay in the #2 launch would have stalled a few orders. The delay and shortfall are roughly the same proportion of a year.

[disc0dave] 11/10/2012 09:13

Even though a lot of the countries being targeted are developing nations, I'm sure a lot have a significant middle class that would pay the amount for fast reliable bb (plus small businesses). I REALLY don't think it's being targeted at the tiny villages etc. A lot has changed in some of these countries over the last few decades that present AVN with a very big market. IMHO

[zho] 11/10/2012 09:06

Questor share tips: Hold Avanti ready for the launchpad as Asia and Africa beckon

[superg1] 11/10/2012 09:04

Funny you should mention the military. the US military have been trialing cognitive radio too.



'JTRS radios are engineered to accomplish this by being able to move information across deployed forces potentially located in austere, forward-positioned environments without needing a "fixed" infrastructure such as cell towers or satellite networks.'

It seems the blinkers are on and all that people look at are Hylas 1 to 3. Before H3 there are about 30 other sats going up with KA ability.


All I'm pointing out is that the the life of the sats is 15 years, and no-one thinks tech won't have moved on in 5 to 10 years.

Prices will have come down too, so when people sy long term, you can't compare prices now to prices in the future to determine revenue.

Where do I live. An area where one can easily pay the high prices but would rather pay less, unlike the countries you mention where the prices we pay would be outrageous for them.

[lennonsalive] 11/10/2012 08:58

Watching this on Level 2 this morning, it's shagged. I reckon a seller must be dumping a load, because sellers a outnumber buyers greatly.

[lavagrouch] 11/10/2012 08:38

superg1 - so where do you live, Middle east of Africa? Do you use your BB for military purposes on a regular basis?

[ttnyw] 11/10/2012 08:37

martincoops

I need to see these back into the £5+.

Very disillusioned!!

[martincoops] 11/10/2012 08:25

Picked up some more this morning let see this move back into the £3+ today

[superg1] 11/10/2012 07:41

Still don't get it. why take the risk, at these levels?. Wait until delivery is happening, then buy.

So many better shares around that are delivering or about to deliver. Make your money on those, then invest here.

I live in a poor BB area, with Sat BB availabilty, the process to get it (like a double glazing visit) and the cost means I don't know anyone that has got it.

However cable arrived for us as of yesterday and such is the uptake, engineers from all of the country, are here due to the demand.

AVN was about being the first mover, but where will technology be in 5 to 10 years time.

Just like mobile phone contracts and BB contracts, what's available improves and the price due to competition drops.

I've kept an eye on this technology for some time, but it's an example of the future.

[buywell2] 11/10/2012 07:39

How much more lolly have the Directors got to support the share price ?

[undertaker] 11/10/2012 07:37

"...Questor believes investors should look beyond yesterday's falling share price and instead focus on the company's potential to exploit demand for its services across high-growth regions such as Asia and Africa.
Shareholders should hold on to their Avanti shares for now and put their trust in a company that appears to have sky-high ambitions...."

[cricklewood] 11/10/2012 06:40

Spikey Harry Has the right idea he runs away with the dosh to pastures new, take a leaf out of his book


LOL

[loverat] 11/10/2012 05:54

At least Simon Cawkwell has now given some reasons for his position here. But the so called reason which he claims would be defamatory to publish is probably something to add to the mystery and uncertainty which he thrives on.

I hope when he shorts a stock in future and sees fit to notify the relevant board, he will expand on his reasons and if not, someone will prompt him to do so. After all, this is an information board where information is shared and not a place for gloating and bragging about who can make the most money at the expense of others.

[divinausa1] 11/10/2012 01:58

melody directors were also buying very big at £6 + £5 and £4 there in it for their retirement to spend 100s of thousands of £s they must think they are on to a winner. So do I, be posting back when these start flying back over £4 in the meantime ....

[malcolmmm] 11/10/2012 00:43

The directors will most probably be able to buy more at 200p in a few weeks, averaging down is a mugs game, plenty of other good profit making companies to invest in.
Once again the shorters have got their teeth into these, the bears smell blood could be very nasty

[melody9999] 10/10/2012 23:49

Dunluce - my point is that Directors claim an increase in capacity of 22% due to 'technical successes'. What does that mean?

Imagine you had been working on something like this for years .... in your business projections would you not know exactly what your technology would deliver?

22% is massive and must change their whole revenue model. But if you are cynical then you might say management have put this figure into an otherwise disappointing statement without any explanation as to the 'technical success'.

Divina - yep relatively small buys. £10K or £20K is not exactly piling in.

As you say I am best out ....but good luck to you both....I hope you prove me wrong.

[jeffian] 10/10/2012 23:44

divina,

"backwards"?

"Avanti Comms Group
Year end trading update
RNS Number : 3743H
Avanti Communications Group Plc
11 July 2012


Avanti Communications Group plc

Year-end trading update

London - 11 July 2012. Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN, "Avanti" or "the Company"), the satellite operator, has published today a trading update for the year ended 30 June 2012.

Total revenues and operating income for the 12 months to 30 June 2012 are expected to be £17.8m (2011: £6.1m.)"

What, they can't even meet a forecast of 3 months ago?!

[divinausa1] 10/10/2012 23:40

markets look forward not backwards....so are the directors who just spent £150,000 on shares...

[jeffian] 10/10/2012 23:31

Errrm......

"......and revenues aside, the tone of the report looked upbeat."


What do you mean "revenues aside"? You mean it's OK to miss a trading forecast by a mile as long as you're "upbeat" about it?