Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 13:13

I wonder what percentage of clients will end up reneging ?

From 3rd world countries I would have thought quite a few

How I wonder does the company protect itself from this ?

ie

Capacity allocated for further down the line does NOT get used

BUT could have maybe been sold during the 'waiting' period

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 12:58

lol cawky likes to spread fear and uncertainty

i dont think his 295p short will prove to be a good one this time around

[colva] 10/10/2012 12:57

Simon

Re. other information - you say it's defamatory , in that case it must be false.

[2vdm] 10/10/2012 12:57

That was a nice large 100k share buy at 297p. serious money

[deanroberthunt] 10/10/2012 12:54

SC

What's your view on WH Smiths pre trading update tomorrow...

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 12:42

This part of cawky's post is true:

I remember a year ago when I was "fibbing" about AVN and "fibbed" a lot on this very thread and made a six figure profit. "Fibbing" seems to serve me very well.

This part is not:

My "fibs" have this cheering habit of turning into truth. Unusual, don't you know.


;-)

[simon cawkwell] 10/10/2012 12:39

jadeticl,

I regret that I do not know when the slump will occur - one is in the hands of management who, after all, dominate the short term publication schedule.

I remember a year ago when I was "fibbing" about AVN and "fibbed" a lot on this very thread and made a six figure profit. "Fibbing" seems to serve me very well. My "fibs" have this cheering habit of turning into truth. Unusual, don't you know.

Simon Cawkwell

[jadeticl] 10/10/2012 12:34

Does cawky have any timescale to his figures? If not his predictions can never be proved wrong as he can always say "just wait".

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 12:34

yawn

here we go again, cawky

every piece of info cawky posts turns out to be a whopping fib.

this is no doubt no different

[simon cawkwell] 10/10/2012 12:31

Gentlemen and Loverat,

Here are some more details from people who know about AVN:

"Today's numbers pretty much confirmed the original short case that Hylas 1 won't be able to generate anything like the revenue forecast because of price competition from Eutelsat's ka-sat and limited demand in Europe. It's a bit harder to be as certain on the second satellite because there is less detail from competitors but everything about Avanti's management suggests this is going to disappoint as well. Where is the big mobile backhaul contract they were promising was imminent a year ago? We can't really understand how the backlog can be so large and revenue guidance so weak. But they don't disclose enough information to be sure - our guess is that a lot is just options that customers don't have to take up (comments in these results on backend loading fit with this too)."

I hold other information - this is from an entirely different source - but it is defamatory and I am therefore inhibited from publishing. But I bet it is reliable. So the target remains 200p in the not too distant future.

Simon Cawkwell

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 12:26

very naughty of cawky to write such nonsense

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 12:23

A 50% fall from the recent chart high might suggest 212p would be a safer target

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 12:20

Chartwise 200p is a good support

[someuwin] 10/10/2012 12:13

EK's diary today...

"I took a call earlier today and shorted Avanti (AVN) at 295p pursuant to the preliminary results announcement. Apparently, the proper price right now is 200p. Ignore the director purchases. They just do these things to bolster their own morale."

[backmarker] 10/10/2012 12:08

Loverat 10 Oct'12 - 11:23 - 10890 of 10899

Someone in his position should be more careful. It is all well and good talking shares down but if he has any integrity he will provide commentary on the reasons he is shorting. Otherwise his posts are pointless for an information board and only serve to undermine the company and its share price further.

--------------------------------------

perhaps SC doesn't have integrity - you may think not, I couldn't possibly comment.

in any event his posts are definitely NOT pointless (from his point of view) for an information board, because they do exactly what you state, they "serve to undermine the company and its share price further".

[deanroberthunt] 10/10/2012 12:08

WH Smiths ? ...

[malcolmmm] 10/10/2012 12:05

AM thinking share price will be 10% down at day end and up tomorrow as people buy on weakness

[lavagrouch] 10/10/2012 12:00

Buywell 2 - are you really trying to make some kind of business comparison between radio & broadband? Do expand please, all appears rather tenuous / desperate.

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 11:59

The share price is playing with Chart support today

It might need more Director buying to hold it

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 11:59

cawky's BS enabled me to make a good profit on this stock

i dont mind if he tries to drive this down further so i can buy more

[deanroberthunt] 10/10/2012 11:57

Nugacity...there's noone to talk to at WH Smiths .....

[johncsimpson] 10/10/2012 11:56

Nugacity 10 Oct'12 - 11:21 - 10888 of 10897

johnc

sorry, I think I confused rogk and volvo over the predictions.

----------------------------

Fine, OK - that explains it.

[lavagrouch] 10/10/2012 11:54

Simon thought he was 'well informed' last year, which ultimately proved clearly not to be the case, totally mis-informed - didn't stop him from making profit. Happy for him to push the price down on misinformation and vagueries again if it allows longer term holders opportuniies to hoover up again at lower prices.

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 11:50

Charts for several USA Sat Co's look bad .... many NOT making profits after MANY years trading .... some in the USA have filed for bankruptcy







Re low P/E's

As I thought .... here is one trading at 5 yes FIVE

Better looking chart





Check out it's turnover and then see what actual profit it makes on that turnover ..... capital intensive or what


Another at a P/E of 11

Chart not so hot




Lastly a warning

Servicing 3rd world countries has been done before

1worldspace, formerly known as 'WorldSpace', is an almost but not yet completely defunct satellite radio network that in its heyday provided service to over 170,000 subscribers in eastern and southern Africa, the Middle East, and much of Asia with 96% coming from India. Timbre Media along with Saregama India plan to relaunch the company.[1]

However a mystery about the final fate of the original Worldspace satellite radio service still remains because despite the company's very public insolvency and the liquidation of all of its various commercial entities two or more years ago (in 2008/09). The company's Afristar and Asiastar satellites still continue to remain in geostationary orbit to this day. Currently, the channels WRN 1 and WRN 2 can be received on Afristar with audio.[2] On AsiaStar, there are 2 channels broadcasting (the old Maestro channel and Sai Global Harmony which is an Indian religious channel). The precise commercial basis on which the Afristar and Asiastar satellites currently continue to be maintained in working satellite orbit by Intelsat is not known at the present time.