Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[backmarker] 10/10/2012 15:27

superg1,

it depends where the satellites go up. clearly US space is oversatisfied, but EMEA is not. how many slots in good areas are still available ?

does anyone know where there is a list of allocated/available slots ? it would be interesting to see what the current intentions of ka-band operators are and what competition AVN might face.

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 14:52

lol cawky's short working a treat

;-)

[yorgi] 10/10/2012 14:35

So IOF's results posted on the 17th September are wrong ?

KEY FINANCIAL POINTS:

• Group meets associated construction and commissioning costs attributed to bringing the IO#1
online;
• Like-for-like losses of £667,172 (H12011: net loss of £427,300);
• Revenue of £4,862,744 (H1 2011: £5,944,437);
• Basic loss per share 0.53p;
• Cash balance at 30 June 2012 of £6,613,891(30 June 2011: £5,539,360)
• Successful Placing raising £4.3m in May 2012; and
• Revenues expected to increase substantially as production from the IO#1 iodine ramps up

[garymott] 10/10/2012 14:32

sugerg1; you have a selective memory. You were also screaming for people to get into FUM on the run up to their results which were very disappointing. I clearly remember making one (and only one) post on the FUM BB when this happened pointing out your folly. Look back at the BB if you want to remind yourself (I will not be).

[superg1] 10/10/2012 14:26

Gary

I screamed for many to get out of Fum at the top, many did, but some just worked against the obvious and got stung.

I did the same on Avn at £7 plus but plenty worked against the logic and again got stung.

As for Iof 70p now, and I was shouting get in at 18p.

Is it making a profit? well actually yes, but that takes work to find out.
In fact it will have a higher share price than AVN next year. So I don't get all this AVN hype, much like when I was being called a fool when saying don't buy it at over the £7 mark.
What did the CEO say '£25 per share'

[deanroberthunt] 10/10/2012 14:15

and what about WH Smiths ....

[via con] 10/10/2012 14:09

IMHO it is not only SC´s numbers which seem to be a little suspect. To add the ying to the yang of SC´s comments I have this snippet for you

February 21 2011 Cenkos stated that "aggressive promotion of ideas based on misunderstandings... This provides an excellent buying opportunity for investors as both these positions are wrong and we are confident the shares will rally strongly on the back of inaugural Hylas 1 sales next month and on-going contract wins, we are confident that investors will quadruple their investment over the next two years"

Now that opinion was made after a 9.5% drop to 493p.

Quadruple eh, well according to Cenkos an investment 493p back then should be getting closer to 2000p now

In the meantime the share price at ~292p will require the share price to rocket by nearly seven times in the next four months to achieve their confident, if not very confident predictions.

House brokers eh, you can´t live with them, can´t live without them but you can certainly think they´re too close to their pay masters.

So on the positive that leaves us just four months to wait for this seven bagger to materialise from those who know and have all the information and access they require.

Thanks Cenkos

Re-edited

[yorgi] 10/10/2012 14:08

It is Gary.

Is IOF making a profit Superg ?

[garymott] 10/10/2012 14:05

sugerg1, I am not in favour of raving either but that is exactly what you did last year for FUM which was and still is loss making! The usual term for this is a hypocrite!

[rathlindri] 10/10/2012 14:00

Where's Yorgi??

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 13:58

230p would be fair value for now

[superg1] 10/10/2012 13:50

Yorgi

Go back to post H1 launch and £10 plus.

I don't get why so many rave about a company that will make losses next year.

Pricing pressure will come as more sats go up. So many better performing shares around right now.

It's got to go 150 percent for some to break even ??

[nugacity] 10/10/2012 13:50

GaryMott, good post - once companies see rivals are using broadband in a broadband wilderness I cannot believe they will want to hang around for months to get it themselves , and it seems inconceivable they will linger for many years.

The timescales look far too pessimistic to me - I think the middle men are going to be overrun with demand once the word it out that the wilderness is self imposed!

[yorgi] 10/10/2012 13:40

Good work and analysis Gary :-)

Well done.

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 13:39

thanks for taking the time to prove that cawky is posting BS

we all knew it from last time around so i couldnt be bothered spending time on it

good post though gm - cheers

[garymott] 10/10/2012 13:35

I politely refer you to my post number 8301 on 31/03/12 relating to EK. Three specific statements from EK are interesting:-

1) He thought that revenue to June 2012 "would not generate much more than £10m for this period".

2) He believed Hylas 1 would produce peak revenues of £33M per annum.

3) He believed that Hylas 1 and Hylas 2 combined would produce annual revenues when full in the range £42M - £60M.

So, as promised on 31/02/12, let's review:-

1) Revenue to June 2012 is £15M, although only £12.5M is from Hylas 1 contracts. So the facts are that EK was WRONG by 50% (or 25% if you choose Hylas 1 revenue only).

We will have to wait several more years for the facts regarding 2) and 3).

However, AVN stated on 06/02/12 that:-

"...A full HYLAS 1 could generate approximately £50m in annual revenue. We expect to reach full saturation at the end of the third year in service. In the first full year of operation, the year to June 2012, we expect to achieve at least one third of that level of revenue, no less than £17m"

Also on 11/07/12 AVN stated:-

"Total revenues and operating income for the 12 months to 30 June 2012 are expected to be £17.8m (2011: £6.1m.)"

So AVN has fallen short on revenue to June 2012 although it offers the following explanation:-

"The Board, giving consideration to the move to the Full List elected to adopt more conservative accounting treatments for certain FY12 transactions, particularly relating to the deferral of income over the lifetime of contracts, regardless of upfront cash inflows."

It has therefore also maintained its forecast full date for Hylas 2 at 2016 but moved back this for Hylas 1 from 2014 to upto 2016 (although not necessarily as late as 2016!) via the use of the following cheeky statement covering its fleet:-

"Although the phasing of Backlog is more back-ended than expected, existing satellites are expected to be full at current run rate in 2016".

However, importantly, see unadited note 2:-

"As in prior years the two key risks to the profitability and liquidity of the business is the rate at which we can fill both satellites and the prices at which we can do that. We have maintained our guidance that we expect to fill both Satellites by 2016. To date we have not seen evidence of any significant downward price pressure."

This is key because, although the revenue may be somewhat delayed, especially for Hylas 1, it suggests that revenue when full from Hylas 1 is still in the region of £50M per annum.

Now Hylas 2, thanks to today's announcement, is 11GHz/3GHz = 3.66 times bigger than Hylas 1.

So when full, Hylas 2 (assuming the £50M for Hylas 1 and that pricing is maintained) would generate annual revenues of about £183M.

So Hylas 1 plus Hylas 2 would be about £233M per annum when both are full.

I personally think this may be a little on the high side but is VERY VERY different from EK's £42M - £60M.

So the BOD has under delivered somewhat but I summarise by asking this simple question - who do you trust; the BOD or EK?

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 13:30

It would seem that the AVN BOD have known when to sell stock

Seems they have slipped up this time round

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 13:28

i think that the difficulty is for hylas 1

it is unsurprising that southern europe is tougher than hoped

in my view, the additional hyl2 capacity more than outweighs the slight delay for hylas1

the fact that they are desperate to fund more satellites proves the demand is there and the business plan works - as does heavy director buying

time to stop the BS and close the short, cawky

[dodge meister] 10/10/2012 13:26

Given the director buys and the RNS out today, it would seem as if an RNS announcing a great new contract is a while away. In the absence of news to contradict any negative assessments, it seems as if it is ripe for a bear raid as it was last year...timing is all important to this

[nugacity] 10/10/2012 13:24

"The company needs to make about £11m of sales each month to meet its target of filling capacity on HYLAS 1 by 2014 and HYLAS 2 by 2016. The figures indicate it is on track to do just that."

#2 lost a couple of months due to the checking needed on its Intelsat companion.
At least that has not moved the fill date into 2017.

The quote is in the preamble at the head of this board.

[buywell2] 10/10/2012 13:23

Another Sat company with BIG debt burden , but making profit

However NOTE

Tangible Book Value of ONLY 10p as a result







Plus a poor chart , but on a flattering P/E of 18

These companies don't half know how to gobble up cash

[geheimnis2] 10/10/2012 13:21

realistically i think cawky is hoping that with a bit of BS and some momentum, this could be driven down to 250p at which point he would close his short

not out of the question, but i think the heavy director buying may have scuppered this wheeze

this has always been a long term investment and the story is very much in tact

the additional capacity on Hylas 2 is worth nearly as much as cawky's 200p price target!

[nugacity] 10/10/2012 13:15

If he shorted at £2.95 he is not exactly on the ball is he?
His objections to the BOD would have been in his head yesterday so why did he not short them at nearer £3.50 instead of waiting for the RNS?

His actions look more like those of someone who is buying in the £2.90's at the expense of his followers?

All imho of course....