Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[colva] 20/4/2012 15:13

qualified ,

I think the latest Jefferies note (from earlier this month) has a price target of 600p but you could pick any number between 600p and 2500p and would probably find that some broker/analyst/tipster has it as a share price target.

[yorgi] 20/4/2012 14:20

All targets/valuations have been well above where we are now but the share price has shown very little in fact no inclination to start moving in the upward direction in fact the complete opposite !

[qualified] 20/4/2012 13:25

Jeffries has a March 2012 valuation on AVN of 1340p.

[hpcg] 20/4/2012 12:27

Agreed backmarker, we are getting to the stage where the company starts on the path from being speculative to being evidential. Only right at the beginning of that journey mind but at least the reports can be analysed for conventional metrics. Though as you say 10 months until the next interims which ought to show about 4 months of revenue from Hylas 2.

[backmarker] 20/4/2012 11:06

AVN tend to release most of their contract win and other news RNSs at 07.00, so I am not hopeful we'll get an update today. a pity.

as colva and others have said, we're now past the heavy capital raising - I'm assuming Hylas-4 is a while off. with Hylas-1 having been operational for around a year we should be able to see with the next results (to end-Jun 2012) how that is truly translating into revenues and earnings.

management have led us to expect that the growth in Hylas-1 contracts has been in line with original targets, but the last statement hinted not to expect anything better. on the other hand they indicated that Hylas-2 contracts have been building more quickly; unfortunately we won't see the first revenue impact of this until end-Dec.

I am confident that mgt will deliver on revenues. what I am concerned to see in the next set of figures is that cost of sales has been kept in check.

in the last accounts it was clear that although revenue from Hylas-1 had gone up, so had cost of sales. assuming that these costs were mostly to do with building the sales team and any one-off costs for getting and setting up new contracts, then that is not unreasonable. however in the next set of figures I would expect the cost of sales to remain similar, and to relate predominantly to the cost of getting the new contracts in that period.

in summary, I want to see revenues going up and cost of sales remaining static, so that earnings grow substantially.

if that is what they can deliver then I shall be happy.

[sg31] 20/4/2012 10:16

Avanti have had a policy of not getting involved with PI's

That is the one problem I have with Avanti. I know the reasons why companies want institutional holders and look down on PIs but we are also part owners of the company and deserve some respect. Answering emails would be a start even if it is to say we can't give you the answer because it is price sensitive. Just ignoring letters and emails is disrespectful.

It's not PI's that lend their shares to shorters...that's II's.

[restassured] 20/4/2012 08:31

Maybe Paul Walsh has told them to engage pi's.

[colva] 20/4/2012 08:28

waterloo ,

You may well be right but Avanti have had a policy of not getting involved with PI's so i'm a bit surprised that they have chosen to be there .

[qualified] 20/4/2012 07:42

There is an analyst target on AVN of over £12.

[restassured] 20/4/2012 06:19

"You right I only joined a while back but I'm aloud to ask questions."



Oh dear,it is allowed.

[colva] 20/4/2012 05:57

Avanti have reached the tipping point , up to now they have been a company spending hundreds of millions on infrastructure (sats and ground stations and the like ) funded by placings and debt(debt about 200m by the time H2 launches) with little or no revenue and zero profit so it's been easy for the sceptics to make their case , but the situation is about to turn around , we have H1 up and running, fully paid for and generating revenue , H2 (200m debt)due to launch shortly and H3 fully paid for, so we're at the point where the large capital investment is coming to an end (until H4) and are moving into a period where revenues will grow exponentially year on year, the 200m debt is only 1.5 years of revenue from H2 at full capacity and all 3 sats running at full capacity would generate revenue of about 250m per year for a business with low operating costs.
Avanti made a last minute decision to be at the MI event tomorrow so i think we'll get news today or monday , an update on the H3 deal with ESA and a H2 pre launch update and maybe a trading update , but perhaps im reading too much into it.
Just my opinion so DYOR.

[yorgi] 19/4/2012 22:54

1976YOL,

Post 7602 you say you invest ?

I should say small stake but I invest to make money as we all do.

So which is it you invested or you inherited ?

You do need to stick to the same story to have any credibility at all 1976YOL

[sg31] 19/4/2012 22:47

YOL, You have to decide if you want to hold the shares or not. If you inherited the shares they effectively cost you nothing. If you sell now you will receive some cash...is it a significant amount to you?..do you need it now?.
If you hold you might lose it all or it may increase in value by a bit or by a lot. The people who hold the shares think it will be the latter. Those shorting the share think otherwise.
We can't give you the answer you need.Everyone here has an agenda of sorts so you are unlikely to get unbiased advice.

[yorgi] 19/4/2012 22:40

1976YOL

Yes you are allowed to ask questions.

I have not been aggressive but you have not been asking questions but finding anyway you can to knock both AVN and David Williams.

As for answering questions you have not answered mine ?

[bump3r] 19/4/2012 22:37

Not really simple questions Yol.
Just beleive in the fundmantals /chart to the reason in why you bought.

No backslapping going on here...whether short or long.

[1976yol] 19/4/2012 22:35

Sorry should have typed.

why can't anyone my answer simple questions...

[1976yol] 19/4/2012 22:34

why can't anyone my simple questions...

I inherited a holding a while ago and now i'm at a massive loss and (I wish I had sold when I got them) all I want to know is should I bail out,

So why all the aggression?

You right I only joined a while back but I'm aloud to ask questions.

Sorry for the upset just been trying to find out more!

[yorgi] 19/4/2012 22:07

Jeffian,

I'm not sure what point it is your making or for that matter think I'm not getting ?

EDIT.

I wasn't intending to criticise you Jeffian in anyway

[geheimnis2] 19/4/2012 22:02

When is the next TU due?

Thx

[jeffian] 19/4/2012 21:58

yorgi,

That's not the point. If they don't do the same thing then what's to learn? Anyway, this scaremongering about revenues is going to be resolved very shortly without any bb armchair experts having to draw their conclusions. Hylas1 is up there and it will soon be apparent whether cash is flowing in as forecast or it isn't.

[yorgi] 19/4/2012 21:52

Jeffian,

I think you will find David Williams founded Screen Media

[jeffian] 19/4/2012 21:47

1976YOL,

What do Screen Media and AVN have in common?