Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[newswseller] 26/3/2012 20:10

johncsimpson I wasn't having a go, just saying that according to your chart we closed high enough to be out of the channel, which is good news

[bump3r] 26/3/2012 20:01

o/t
Johnc
Bought into another today. EXI

Mainly a chart play for all the baseline signals but again fundamentally strong.

[philo124] 26/3/2012 19:20

320p resistance to get through.

[newswseller] 26/3/2012 17:00

johncsimpson closed well above the channel, Uncrossing Trade for 36k at 274.5p almost the high of the day.

[bump3r] 26/3/2012 15:37

I only bought in 2 weeks ago based on current chart and projected newsflow.
So the charts have been a good signal for me. I even projected this weeks candle which may or may not work.

Whatever info is passed between anyone on here should be taken with a pinch of salt. But it's us against the market so it's no point arguing amongst ourselves.

My post from Friday.
Cap ,retraces from highs can take years and when the game changing news kicks in (also the Elliot Waves) these losses can be wiped out in a matter of weeks.

I posted last week that the weekly candle looked like a reversal candle. This weeks weekly candle adds weight to that thinking.

Were due news next week, or early the following from ESA on HYLAS3. This is BIG NEWS in regards to forward costs for HY3 in relation to HY,1 & 2.

The military contract is also huge and game changing. Maybe the April fiscal year will enable it to commence.

Weekly chart below.
£3.38 is next breakout signal for me . ESA news can take us there in my opinion.

Then if the military contract comes the Elliot waves will work their magic.

Not a trading share at the moment but an investment for me as it gives me a diversity from oil and gold.
..and I like the story and chart

Weekly chart

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 13:09

Good post SHANKSAJ

OK Yorgi, just for you (I'm not picking a fight but there are others here that use charts too and I though I originally said I wouldn't do them because it takes too long, I now feel I have something to proove - (I could be wrong, of course) – note how AVN broke through that dotted trend line and then note how it's since retraced back from the intraday high. If it continues to slip back too far and finish near today's opening price then we're back in that flat trading channel which will mean that all the bluster since Friday will have come to nothing. I'm not saying it will but would you care to bet it won't?

Charts are just one facet of investing/trading. I think they give me a competitive advantage. Ignore them at your peril.

Me, I'll stand by my charts and posts.

[shanksaj] 26/3/2012 12:46

All the above posts are useful, and I hope this is too:-

From T1ps:-

Why we are buying more Avanti Communications*
31 Days ago (2012-02-24 13:33:02)
I met up with Avanti (AVN) the other day and have been pondering this for a while but our SF t1ps Smaller Companies Growth Fund has been nibbling away at the shares and here is why.

I can understand why Evil shorted it. On a current year PE of a zillion or whatever he was able to make a compelling case. It was all the more compelling given that he blinded us with science – a raft of factual inaccuracies. So I just stick to facts.

HYLAS 1 is now in orbit. Capacity is filling up gently and is now, I reckon, at c.40% (of capacity sold). It should be at 50% during this year and will be fully sold out 3 years after launch.

HYLAS 2 launches in June/July. After 3 months of testing it goes operational and is already 10% sold out. Again it will be fully sold out by September 2015.

HYLAS 3 is now fully funded to launch in a couple of years. It should thus be fully sold out by late 2017.

Avanti has fairly fixed PLC costs and so will – by my sums – be at cash breakeven within a couple of months. Thereafter as each month goes by and more capacity is sold on Hylas 1 & 2 (and eventually 3) it just generates more cash. I do not really care what EBITDA is this year to June 30th (I think it will be a tiny positive) or indeed next year or the year after (c.£30 million and c.£80 million is my private forecast). The point is what it should be by, say 2018, when HYLAS 3 is fully operational. I estimate the number then will be c£200 million (earnings per share of c130p!).

At 263p Avanti is capitalised at c£290 million. It has debt (when fully drawn) of c£200 million. So the Enterprise Value is £490 million. By 2018 the company will have chucked off a couple of hundred million pounds of free cashflow and so – were that to be used to repay debt - it would be trading on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.5. Now to put that in perspective, Inmarsat, which is today where Avanti will be in five years time, is on a multiple of around 8. That implies a share price in a few years of at least £15 for Avanti.

There are other ways of looking at Avanti which might lead you to expect a £20 share price. I am not sure. But what I do expect is that:

a) Over the next few months there will be a constant diet of announcements on contract wins. The key point is that we are now at inflexion point so that every new contract drops through to the bottom line.

b) We will see some excitement when HYLAS 2 launches in June. This time the directors will not feed the bears by selling shares thereafter.

c) The maths are just compelling and so I really do not give a jot what the share price is next week or next month. We currently have 3% of the growth fund in Avanti and we are increasing that holding with a stream of buys. We are happy to wait.

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 12:19

Whoaa there Yorgi. I'd actually got Volvo in the 'savvy' class.

He seemed to call it right so ten out of ten for the heads up on the seller. I just don't want to be reminded about it every couple of hours.

But equally, I got it right with my charts if your having a go at me - granted I sometimes get it wrong but I don't see a problem here. We're singing from the same sheet Yorgi, just on different pages

[yorgi] 26/3/2012 12:05

Volvo's information would appear to have been accurate and in my view probably of more use than lots of posts about charts.

Fundamentals, value, directors buys and contracts will have more effect on the share price than charts in my opinion and along with seller clearing which Volvo has been right on has would clearly appear to have coincided with a rise.

[volvo] 26/3/2012 11:37

VOLVO - 17 Mar'12 - 15:45 - 8064 of 8178 edit


News obtained yesterday.

The seller is being accomodated......unquote.

We will hold here until its completed...........which could be any moment.

Also confirmation of progress........everything confirmed as EXACTLY as forecast. If anyone wants to buy, I suggest they get on with it.

Topped up on Friday, now a little overweight and will probably trade some at 330p to 350p, but hold the balance. So we wait for the lift off, of the statellite and the share price. Both coming........ dyor.

[garymott] 26/3/2012 11:19

I am very pleased that EK has lost £150k following the collapse of WorldSpreads; I have no sympathy with him whatsoever following his biased, unsubstantiated posts on AVN last year to support his shorts.

Before his name reappeared here in the last few days, I reviewed over 3000 posts on this thread last week from when EK opened his shorts until he closed them. I wanted to review some of his comments a year later. I will post my conclusions in the next few days when I get time.

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 10:58

Thank you . . .

[cestnous] 26/3/2012 10:55

Have one of mine John, though I've used most of the box wiping away tears of laughter.

[peterwaller395] 26/3/2012 10:54

No boxes left here, used them all up seeing AVN's share price falling forever, before moving on to towels. Like many I suspect, I have stayed with this chuff and added and added and added and added, breaking all my rules and still finding it occupies 12% of my entire portfolio. share price had better rise. I firmly believe it will ............... hang on for the ride boys and girls

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 10:48

Where's me box of tissues??

[peterwaller395] 26/3/2012 10:44

Just for those interested in EK - Post was made on 19th March, confirming £150k

"Not, I fear, for the last time, I last Friday experienced nemesis. I had no sooner dismissed City Index as not for me than a firm, whom I did not doubt, WorldSpreads, collapsed. What all this means and where it goes I do not know - I fear I have said goodbye to £150,000. I shall be very disappointed if it transpires that executives have not merely been incompetent but dishonest as well. I need hardly add that I utterly exclude Lindsay McNeile, the non-executive chairman, from blame. He is neither a crook nor a fool. He must feel dreadfully let down. This is about the fourth insolvency of a broker/spreadbetter I have experienced in the last four years. In aggregate these have cost me about £1m. "

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 10:37

A lot of wishful thinking about where the price is going and how quickly it will get there . . .

mechanical trader - 26 Mar'12 - 09:29 - 8213 of 8216

On its way up to resistance at 287p

I agree and think we will see it stutter in this area. Whether that's today and lasts for ten minutes or during the course of this week and for days only time will tell. I think the latter is more likely. I also expect to see some 'consolidation' between now and Hylas2 which will probably last for weeks establishing a flat trading channel when it does, before we head north again. AIMHO, of course . . .

[backmarker] 26/3/2012 10:00

restassured,

if you are referring to M&G, they already had a large stake before the placing, and then acquired more during the placing at 280p.

if any insti has been buying more during this weakness then it's probably been one of Winnifroth's t1ps funds.

[divinausa1] 26/3/2012 09:58

someuwin - 26 Mar'12 - 09:07 - 8209 of 8214

Looking strong. Could see this double to £5+ before satellite launch in June.
---------------

directors bought shed loads at £6+
me personally i have earmarked £10 before i start selling in late 2013

[someuwin] 26/3/2012 09:55

Once it breaks £3 the move up to £4 should be swift.

[mechanical trader] 26/3/2012 09:29

On its way up to resistance at 287p



At this rate it should get through that easy.

just wondering if its been tipped somewhere.

[restassured] 26/3/2012 09:24

Always strikes me as odd that a share price crashes and yet an institution is able to acquire such a high percentage.