Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[dolores123] 01/10/2009 09:37

Today's report on the global state of broadband and the poor rating of the UK emphasises the huge market opportunity available to Avanti not just in UK but in Europe as well.

IMHO.

[smarm] 29/9/2009 14:02

409 not as good as 392. Topped up.

S

[dolores123] 29/9/2009 10:56

All quiet so far today. The current share price of 409p is a good entry level given the upbeat recent results and chairman's statement and the RHPS 700p share price target.

[cestnous] 27/9/2009 17:09

Chronic Investor last week said that satellite launches were risky business and gave them 'Good value'. Article generally supportive but didn't seem to grasp the co's potential. Looked like it had been written by a cub reporter.

[terryebby] 25/9/2009 10:16

dolores i am not a subscriber - what have they siad and is that a NPV valuation or a short term price target with a Buy recommendation ?

[dolores123] 25/9/2009 09:44

Red Hot Penny Shares magazine has a new price target of 700p!!

[terryebby] 25/9/2009 09:31

consensus valuations are 550p - 650p based on NPV with discount rates of about 10% - the gap between these valuations and the share porice should narrow with each month we get closer to launch, then with a successful launch the share price will go higher because the retirement of launch risk should bring the discount rate down by a long way

[jonnyno1] 24/9/2009 11:04

the next big ticket will be hopefully an imminent announcement of the low cost financing for two further satellites , transformational!

j.

[sg31] 23/9/2009 13:00

I don't rate them at all but GE&CR pu out the following

Avanti Communications* Full-Year Results Comment – Reiterate 'Buy' at 395p; Target Price 694p
Avanti Communications Group, the broadband satellite company, announced better than expected results for the year ended 30th June 2009 on 22nd September and followed this up a day later with news of three more contract wins. This reinforces our confidence in the business model and, although the shares trade at an all time high of 395p, we reiterate our stance of buy with a target of 694p – a target which may be revised higher over the coming months.

The reasons that 2009 results came in ahead of expectations were that the company's interim, leased satellite capacity sales were £8.04 million compared to our forecast of £7 million) and thanks to £2.93 million of derivative and exchange gains which resulted from the company's policy to hedge its material currency exposures. The result was a pre-tax profit of £1.8 million, compared to a loss of £1.36 million in 2008. As development continued and debtors increased as the company's Hylas satellite moves towards a launch which remains on schedule for the 2nd quarter of 2010, the cash flow statement showed a £10.63 million outflow. At period end the balance sheet showed cash and equivalents of £24.62 million, to which an additional £31.5 million was added on 3rd July as the net proceeds of a share placing were received. These figures compared with borrowings of £42.98 million at 30th June 2009.

Significant progress towards a successful launch and the operation of Hylas has been made – with the launch service provider upgraded to Arianespace, the most successful launch agency in the world with the longest unbroken record of success, and 48 service providers around Europe now having made minimum initial commitments to Avanti. This means more than 13% of Hylas capacity is now pre-sold for the first year of service, and the company hopes for this figure to top 20% by the day of launch.

With a consensus that some 70 million homes in Europe will not be able to access terrestrial broadband at speeds of the 2Mb+ which is becoming a benchmark, the service providers which have already committed to Hylas expect to build their own subscriber bases rapidly and to return to Avanti to buy more capacity. In this context, it is noteworthy that Hylas will be full, depending on the mix of service levels, with around 200,000 - 300,000 end user customers and Avanti also affirms that it is "also now making progress with larger telecoms companies... and therefore the average order size is likely to increase".

With competing technologies leaving large populations unserved due to technical and economic limitations and universal broadband service rapidly becoming regarded as a critical national infrastructure across the globe, the commonly envisaged market for Avanti continues to look highly attractive. However, little competition is presently emerging and the company is also already finding new markets for its services - currently having services providing 'backhaul' for mobile phone base stations (carrying user traffic from rural base stations back to network centres), telemetry for wind farms and outside broadcasting transmissions for television companies. Therefore, although increased competition can be expected to emerge in future years; Avanti has a clear head-start and the potential size of its market means the company can be expected to continue to thrive for the foreseeable future.Confidence on that matter was increased on 23rd September when Avanti announced the signing of three more contracts for the sale of broadband services with companies operating in Italy, Macedonia and in the Balkans generally.

We currently have a discounted cash flow derived target price of 694p for Avanti's shares – which is heavily rooted on Hylas. However, perhaps the most interesting part of the results statement was the company's comment that given the outlook, it is;

"busy working on two new projects to increase our capacity. An investment bank has been retained to help us to close financing which has been offered by government sponsors. The success of this effort is not yet definitive but we hope to report positively on this soon".

We have previously noted that as the Hylas project continues to develop and Avanti de-risks additional satellite projects, it would likely be necessary to increase our target price materially and so we await with interest any further news in this regard – there is therefore clear potential to increase our price target over the coming months. The shares have performed strongly since our detailed note in November, when they traded at 186.5p. However, even at today's 395p they trade significantly below our 694p target price and with this not including much of the upside potential of additional satellite launches, our stance remains buy.

[5dally] 23/9/2009 07:52

RNS Number : 4958Z
Avanti Communications Group Plc
23 September 2009



Date: 23 September 2009

On behalf of: Avanti Communications Group plc ("Avanti", "the Group" or "the Company")

Embargoed until: 0700hrs




Avanti Communications Group plc

Contract Wins




Avanti Communications Group plc (AIM: AVN), the broadband satellite operator, announces the signature of three contracts for the sale of broadband services, taking it above its target of recruiting 50 service providers before the launch of its HYLAS satellite.




The first is with Insis System Engineering, which provides systems integration services in automation, environmental monitoring and infrastructure control in Italy.




Secondly, EnergoData has purchased capacity which will be used to manage telemetry and control services in the utilities sector in Macedonia, a new market for Avanti.




Finally, Avanti has signed with Broadsat srl in Italy and the Balkans, which specialises in providing consumer broadband in rural Italy.




Each customer has committed to the minimum order volumes.







David Williams, Chief Executive of Avanti, said:




"I am delighted to add three new customers to our distribution network bringing us to 51 service providers in 13 countries. We have always assumed that 50 service providers would be enough to fill HYLAS quickly. We removed the last major technical risk from our project in July with the launch upgrade. With the achievement today of a major distribution milestone we therefore now have full confidence that we are also rapidly removing commercial risks. It is also pleasing to recruit customers specialising in new niche industrial applications for satellite broadband, in addition to our existing strength in the consumer market."







Enquiries to:

Avanti Communications Group plc


David Williams
020 7749 1600






Redleaf Communications Ltd
[e-mail]

Sam Robbins / Paul Dulieu
020 7566 6700




Cenkos Securities



Julian Morse / Ivonne Cantú
020 7397 8900







Notes to Editors:

About Avanti Communications

Avanti sells satellite broadband services to telecoms companies which use them to supply homes and businesses.

Avanti's first satellite, called HYLAS is under construction and will be the first superfast broadband satellite launched in Europe.

The market for 2Mb satellite broadband products in Europe is estimated at more than 70 million households.

Avanti currently provides satellite broadband services to customers in Europe using leased satellite capacity which it will transfer to HYLAS on launch.

The European Commission has set aside funding for rural broadband projects in 79 regions across Europe with a total value of EUR2.8 billion over the next five years.

[codhead1] 23/9/2009 07:30

More contracts- it just gets better and better.

[evianone] 22/9/2009 20:54

Smarm, it could be an opportunity to buy more for the medium/long term the results were good. imho

[pelleeds1980] 22/9/2009 15:50

US market taken a dive and dragged the FTSE down i suspect thats the reason

[smarm] 22/9/2009 15:47

Eh, why didn't that rise hold. LOL. In profit before satellite launched and bringing forward plans for second. Oh well, I ain't selling mine.

S

[yorgi] 22/9/2009 12:31

Bet you are good move Cestnous

[cestnous] 22/9/2009 12:16

Glad I doubled up before the results. Brilliant

[yorgi] 22/9/2009 12:12

Oh yes this is rather good....

[pelleeds1980] 22/9/2009 12:00

What a chart!

[5dally] 22/9/2009 11:45

Never seen the spread so narrow

[5dally] 22/9/2009 11:35

Moving up again,,,up 50p now,,:-)will not be tempted to sell tho

[s66blade] 22/9/2009 11:05

Nice, currently making £1.89 a share profit. Holding for the medium term though so long may this rise continue!

[5dally] 22/9/2009 10:14

Same here Jimbo55,,up 39p now :-)long term hold for me,,,got in at much lower sp

[jimbo55] 22/9/2009 09:15

I like the pre-tax profit bit. I personally wasn't expecting any kind of profit until Hylas is up and running. ;)

[blue forever] 22/9/2009 08:37

At least the bid/offer has finally moved up!