Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[polythene] 13/4/2011 07:27

Could anyone give a quick summary of why directors sold at £7 last december? Was it primarily to pay tax on options or is there a sense that they felt the share price was ahead of itself. I know I should go over all of the announcements, but I don't have the time. Would appreciate a short cut.

[dunluce] 12/4/2011 20:52

mjames20,

I disagree with your take on this..'SC, or rather his informer, has called this right.'

SC has no doubt made a bob or two on this based apparently on information provided to him by his 'informant'. Whether he has called this right remains to be seen - he is challenging the business model and in particuliar the reliability of AVNs prospective earnings based on that model. The directors of the company seem to be as bullish as SCs 'informant' is bearish if you look at the share purchases and the tone and context of RNSs around contracts.

You fail to understand that at this stage of AVNs development sentiment plays a crucial role in the share price. When someone like SC states he is bearish on a stock I think most stockholders take note ( otherwise we would not be having these discussions). I have read what he has posted ( from his informant ) and to be honest it has not persuaded me that he (his informant) know more than the Directors of the company ,however, I have no doubt others will act and sell especially at a time when we are waiting for solid news to start filtering through. The shareprice had a very positive run last year and sentiment was very positive towards AVN based on prospects - cue SC - throw out some info. casting doubt on the companies forecasts ( from the informant ) , refuse to validate his informants comments ( 'cannot or will not' as I remember it)once the share price begins to settle add more grist to the mill (from his informant). Until we see revenues generated and newsflow the share price will be to a large degree at the mercy of sentiment.

[yorgi] 12/4/2011 20:28

Restassured, a lot of what you say about SC I may well agree with but please keep it professional although I know at times it is very hard. There is no need to be rude, he has to live with himself !

[restassured] 12/4/2011 18:37

I find him grotesque,offensive and meaningless.


He is a market manipulator.

Bernard Maddoff was good at it too.Furthermore he got away with it for a long time.That didn't mean it was right or legal.


You need to get clued up on the markets if you think it is not possible to manipulate them.The stock is fairly illiquid,that is the first clue.

[mjames20] 12/4/2011 18:35

Guys,

Let's stop the personal attacks. In particular, restassured's post is childish, meaningless and offensive.

SC, or rather his informer, has called this right. Rather than being upset at being out traded efforts would be better concentrated on trying to understand the reasons for the fall. The Mcap is around £0.5th so SC does not have the financial clout to move the price himself. Thus all the comments about manipulation etc are nonsense.

What as happened is that a well respected analyst has put out a sell note and some heavy hitters have listened to what he has to say.

The question to ask is "Why have they listened?"

[restassured] 12/4/2011 17:27

I see the pig is out of the trough for the day

If I had let myself go like that, I would be mad as hell at the world too and want to short everything.

A self esteem issue.


Oink oink

[geheimnis2] 12/4/2011 17:25

cawky

druinsky has even less credibility than you

quite an achievement

;-)

any more footy bet tips?

[cartier81] 12/4/2011 17:25

First target= 390p (within next 21 days)

[simon cawkwell] 12/4/2011 17:22

druinsky,

You shouldn't say that sort of thing. It only winds up the majority. Further, I'll be blamed.

Simon Cawkwell

[geheimnis2] 12/4/2011 13:47

excellent summary backmarker

nothing really to add until we get some proper news (hylas 3 financing?)

i do like the way that this company seems to be financing capex very cheaply - if you have ever looked at a leveraged model you will see how this really boosts return to equity

[yorgi] 12/4/2011 13:46

All very true Backmarker

[backmarker] 12/4/2011 13:46

at the risk of providing SC with some more ammunition, does anyone know whether the contracts that AVN - and presumably the rest of the industry - have "escape" or "cancellation" clauses in them ?

[backmarker] 12/4/2011 13:43

jeffian,

I think you've summed up the position quite succinctly.

until we get some actual booked revenue figures it will be impossible to judge how well AVN is doing. those figures are several months away. I would hope that we may get quarterly updates on revenues, so that would mean another 4-5 months until the first such update, then another 3 months until we can make a period comparison to see how revenues are growing.

in the meantime anyone can speculate say anything about how well things are going or may go.

the main issue is clearly around demand and competition, and how it will affect volume of sales and the prices obtained.

a lot has been stated about the AVN reseller packages being more expensive than the alternative Ka-band suppliers. it is not clear whether like is being compared with like. it is not clear whether or how this is impacting AVN's sales. the directors state they are getting contracts above their plan. so long as they continue to do this perhaps it doesn't matter if someone else appears a bit cheaper. perhaps other factors, such as reliability, come into play.

it has been predicted that demand for satellite broadband far outstrips supply, which would support premium pricing. on the other hand, other technologies may in the future erode the market that only satellite can effectively supply at present, and that will bring prices down unless residual demand is still above supply. we shall have to see if that happens.

again, huge demand might be there, but falls away dramatically beyond certain price points because the potential customers can't - or won't - afford it. AVN may have its market analysis wrong.

at the moment AVN is telling us they are ahead of plan, presumably the plan against which the finance was obtained. so long as that continues to be the case then they should achieve the projected profits and all will be good.

for the time being we think we know the risks, but there is no evidence yet that any of them are actually becoming manifest.

what is certain is that the market is taking these risks a lot more cautiously at present than it did last year, hence the share price

[ttny2004] 12/4/2011 13:09

From a chart perspective getting close to support around the 390p level. If that does not hold and bounce could drop much lower IMO. Good luck all.

[jeffian] 12/4/2011 12:49

I think it's all a matter of projections vs. reality. This was pumped up to the launch on some pretty tasty revenue projections from Cenkos and others, and they're now in that 'no-mans land' period between promise and delivery. I'm sure it will turn up once cash starts flowing. In the meantime, an ideal vacuum in which the bears can work their magic playing on the fear/greed principle.

[yorgi] 12/4/2011 12:46

Shorting Bhudiaki. As I'm sure you know if a share falls enough more take fright and sell ignoring business sense and Sc has quite a few disciples who follow blindly but it has worked for them for the time being.

[bhudiaki] 12/4/2011 12:18

Hey Guys, besides the b*tching between SC and the board, do we actually know why this has dropped like a lead balloon? Someone must have inside knowledge!?!? The company looks good, contracts look good, it was all going so well!? Whats happened?

[jeffian] 12/4/2011 11:23

It's less than a year since the company raised £70m at 430p/share. It'll be interesting to see what happens if it begins to test the Placing price.

[greengiant] 12/4/2011 11:03

I see that our resident Bear has not been around today and has so far failed to answer the simple question (IT SHOULD BE SIMPLE FOR A MAN OF HIS OBVIOUS INTELLIGENCE), of how could the directors state that

"The contract, which commands pricing which exceeds market expectations"

less than 1 month ago (for a 7m contract) when he continues to question the company's ability to achieve its market prices?

Please Simon, put me out of my misery and answer my simple question.

gg

[hywel] 12/4/2011 09:51

Perhaps Cawkwell should go for the vacant NED job, perhaps he'll see how good the business really is then.