Autins Share Discussion Threads

[wasp8] 28/10/2020 15:59

Can't see any good news moving the needle here. The year-end results are going to be shocking with some jam tomorrow about Neptune and masks.

Look at the last accounts (and half year) and you can see a huge cost base and a key market (auto) that's dived off and will take an age to recover and then will be hungry for cost down.

Would you want JLR as your biggest customer right now? UK centric with a minimal electric offering and bound to get damaged by Brexit? Most of their parts are imported...

[arthur_lame_stocks] 27/10/2020 13:36

Personally I don't think you have.

[mach100] 27/10/2020 13:27

Dropped today as the sells finally made the bid drop. Needs some news to push this along. Either the sellers have got this right or I have.

[wasp8] 11/10/2020 23:13

If I'm wrong and they do update I'd be very interested to see how much of this "pipeline" has actually dropped into sales.

Automotive is great as you get long contracts (5-7 years), but that also means you know that you're losing 15-20% of your base sales each year and have to peddle hard to stay still. Add onto that 2-3% cost down each year and it's a tough model to make money in unless you have a unique product. Is Neptune really that good? If it is I'd expect to see a big uptake.

Masks are all well and good but they won't cover the overhead. And it's all about the UK - Sweden and Germany too small to carry the UK overhead.

[wasp8] 11/10/2020 23:07

Suspect it's more criticism of pricing - can't see based on the way they're making them they can get many economies.

No need for them to give a trading update as no forecasts in the market - and I'm guessing they can't announce final results date yet as they, like many others, will have to convince their auditor that they've got enough cash to ride another lockdown which won't be easy.

Having looked at the mask and read the respirator spec i can't see how those masks can pass without modification - certainly not medical grade from what I can see.

I'd be very cautious here - automotive is going to be a train wreck this year and I'm guessing the OEMs will be coming hunting for aggressive price downs to help (that's exactly what they did to their supply chains last time there was a big downturn).

[mach100] 09/10/2020 20:59

Back on sale at Amazon and price has come down. I don't know if that is because they have scaled up production and can sell more or in response to consumer criticism on price and value.Kids masks also come down a £1. 688 reviews for the adult mask with about 88% average to very good so much the same. A trading update due around 28th so we should get an update on how well the other divisions have coped. Cautiously optimistic and was quoted 16.65p to buy today though they is a continual drip-drip of sellers at 15p. The medical certification would certainly help though these processes are going to be slow in Covid times. Cautiously optimistic here.

[mach100] 25/8/2020 17:04

hxxps://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmidlands/news/2043647-acoustic-and-thermal-insulation-specialist-delivers-millions-of-ppe-items

So a run rate of 50000 per month of sales of facemasks. I take the statement that they manufactured and supplied nearly 200,000 facemasks as completed sales. Plus millions of parts for visors. Lower margin presumably but higher turnover and likely to be huge ongoing demand. I would say the HSBC facility is more than washing its own face which is good in Covid 19 times. As other parts of the business normalise this must be a useful income stream.

The following may be the kicker.

"Autins’ face masks are currently undergoing testing for Europe-wide certification as a ‘medical device and a respirator’."

[mach100] 03/8/2020 18:38

Versarien updated today and announced a new graphene mask which led to a 10% rise in the share price 259 reviews on Amazon by tonight and it probably reflects that sales are continuing apace as only a fraction of purchases are motivated to do reviews. The main +tives are its British made, comfortable and does the job. -ives are the price ( though that is surely somewhat determined by demand and there is plenty demand), the lack of a bridge ( perhaps something the design team can look at or make clearer that it can be worn in a way which stops glasses steaming up and only affects glasses wearers), and finally complaints that it tears when washed ( only happens to a proportion but perhaps again some solution should be sought or replacements issued on return of goods. Looking to pick up more this month.

[wasp8] 03/8/2020 15:21

Fleming bought Cavendish so it's just a technical transfer. May mean a change of investment manager though if its been transferred between entities.

[mach100] 28/7/2020 10:42

So Stonehage Fleming have taken the near 20% stake. A seamless transfer. I wonder why when Cavendish were accumulating up until the third week in July there was a sudden change in tack to dispose of all of its holdings. Quite a puzzle!

[mach100] 24/7/2020 17:05

Miton have also cut their holdings which they have been doing for a while anyway. That is 20%+ of the company's shares moved to new owners but we don;t know who yet. Interesting.

[wasp8] 23/7/2020 15:05

That's a big chunk of shares to be moving - imagine Singer have done some work in the background to deal with that lot.

Schroeders can't do much more and Miton's sold down, so probably a new investor.

Cavendish may have a cash call or some balance issues to resolve.

We'll wait for the TR1 I suppose....

[mach100] 23/7/2020 10:38

Yes but who has taken them? NO effect on the price so far. Might be a positive to have a new cornerstone investor. Strange move however after building up a large holding in the last year. Especially at a point where AUTG has tackled a lot of issues it was facing.

[wasp8] 23/7/2020 10:20

Cavendish just dumped their holding by the look of things....

[mach100] 19/7/2020 22:25

I see the verified buyers reviews on Amazon have jumped to 167 from 138 in the last two weeks. The mask rating is 77% good (21%) or excellent (56%) with a three star rating of average of 12% This is very consistent as the number of reviews grows. Sponsored products related to the masks have only between 3 and 46 reviews by contrast. The neptune face mask for children has a 4.6 out of 5 rating and seems well recieved by the reviwers. Seems a lot of concern in reviews of other masks about the masks been made in China and poor quality. All very interesting if this Huaweigate escalates.

[mach100] 16/7/2020 16:27

So Autg did half a million worth of turnover on facemasks up to the time of Bojo making masks compulsory and couldn't at times keep up with demand. Reading the Aamzon reviews 8 out of the last 10 verified purchases gave Autins masks a five star review. So now almost 60% of purchasers motivated to rate give a five star review with 78% giving a four or five star rating. The total for average or above is 89% which is pretty good going. British made certainly seems a good USP and you can see it mentioned in some reviews. Many cheap masks come from China so if there is fallout from the Huawei spat then chinese imports may suffer. Of course by that time AUTG may have achieved certification or be very close to it but one thing for sure it will have a large addressable market. All this while the car market returns to a new normal after a lockdown. Germany is already at 80% having started before the UK. Things are nicely falling into place at Autins and no amount of masks will cover that fact up.

[mach100] 15/7/2020 12:23

Good interview on Proactive with the CEO putting even more flesh on the bones. Seems the flooring side in Germany is doing well gone from 4.5m Euro T/O to 6.3m after a 1.8m multi year contract. The PPE side will be scaled up massively with certification which I expect will be achieved by late September/ Early October. The compulsory wearing of facemasks announced yesterday by BJ means massive demand. 77% of ratings are 4 or 5 stars with the principle complaints lack of a bridge for glasses wearers which is something the design team could look at. The price is also an issue for some but if compulsory the market is less price sensitive and indeed might prefer quality to cheapness. I think AUTG is a breath of fresh air actually and I will continue to buy.

[mach100] 08/7/2020 11:59

Cavendish Asset Management have gone from 11.25% last November to 19.5% today. Even since Feb 20 through the Covid 19 crisis it has upped its holding by 2.3% of its share of the company. Seems unperturbed by the macro picture.

[mach100] 08/7/2020 10:43

Useful article and might explain increased customer satisfaction with the masks

hxxps://www.med-technews.com/news/west-midlands-firms-join-up-to-supply-ppe-during-covid-19-pa/

Seems a good collaboration with a company that is an excellent fit. The partial outsourcing could help meet production targets. Also might give AUTG a better foothold in the facemask environment in the West Midlands and hopefully beyond.

[mach100] 08/7/2020 08:55

Clarity on CBIL with the terms and rates with what appears to me very favourable terms. A 7 million pound MCap with £3.05m of banking facilities available.
The company were hopeful of being able to do 100,000 masks per week and had even in the early stages 120,000 of orders so with COV 19 likely to be around for some time and masks compulsory in transport and other areas demand is likely to continue. I just checked the most recent reviews on Amazon and 6 of the last seven were 5 stars out of 5 and one 4 stars out of 5. This was from 28 June to 6th July so as they rushed into production from good Friday they have clearly been able to modify issues like masks breaking. Today is a good stepping stone and tackled a major area of concern.

[mach100] 03/7/2020 13:46

wasp sales IN THE LAST TWO MONTHs have reached £.4m as per the results. Personally I don't know if this is the cumulative total or the run rate per month but it is not three months as you state. Net debt has actually remained constant since the placing in August last year. Actually my main fear is another placing in August to dilute and take advantage of a rising share price AUTG has doubled since its low of 8p on 8 April. We shall see if your fears are well founded but if their respirator is effective against Covid 19 and is approved then we should see a significant uprate as with all COv 19 shares these days.

[wasp8] 03/7/2020 11:03

Mach 100 - automotive contract wins for future is great, but as JLR are the major customer (and struggling) how much is that likely to offset. Also remember that on an average 7 year model life cycle for automotive they'll be losing 1/7th of income each year as models change over or go end of life.

Re Mask - 3 months sales at c.£0.4m just doesn't square with their alleged production volumes.

Re Debt - most of their funding is short term Invoice Finance. The Overdraft only kicked in in 2019 when there was a huge profit warning and auto market stalled, so clearly was a short term emergency measure. CBILS may be longer term but not clear. MEIF looks longer term but again not certain. Need to see full year figures wiht all the term rates etc to be clear.

[mach100] 03/7/2020 10:43

Thanks for your comments wasp. I think the company will ramp up mask production as it is a new area which they can expand into and can compensate for loss of trade elsewhere. I wouldn't pin too much on the importance of reviews given the limited UK based manufactured choice or the fact that they are compulsory for public transport etc so unless there is an alternative with no mixed reviews I doubt it will impact much. The results showed that they have reduced short-term debt facilities which would be more expensive and have more long term debt facilities in place. If there was imminent danger of being overwhelmed by debt I doubt they would be doing that. I think it is undervalued at this level and although there are debt concerns with risk comes reward.

[wasp8] 02/7/2020 11:10

That mask is artisanal only and the production numbers are all a bit inconsistent - 100k per week, 1m per week etc. At that rate and at a selling price of c.£4 per mask (average over the period they've been making them) they'd be making £4m a week in sales.

And if you read their Amazon reviews they're a bit mixed.

Lots of spin in there and debt is high and increasing given COVID and CBILS. Also, why would it take nearly 4 months to sign off the term sheet with their UK Bank if it was a slam dunk?