Autins Share Discussion Threads

[wasp8] 16/12/2020 22:26

No way will it be this week (or next).

Never announce on a Friday - aiming for a Tuesday or Weds and they will assume the investor community has gone home next week.

They have all the way until March as don't have to file stats until end of that month and need 21 days notice - look what they did for the Sept 18 results...

I think they said 12 months interest free - its the other conditions that interest me. A lot of these come with blocks on dividends and other restrictions that don't help shareholder value...

[mach100] 15/12/2020 15:54

The British Business Bank's CBILS
CBILS facilitates commercial finance to viable small businesses, who are unable to obtain the funding they need due to insufficient security. The borrower will always be 100% liable for the debt.
Currently, there will be up to five months of interest-free loans available through CBILS, which may be attractive solutions of eligible businesses. However, the product is subject to affordability, so Think Business Loans recommends running any application for CBILS in comparison to another and being mindful of the potential drawdown timelines.
Seems fair but Idk if Autins got this one. Just checking on whether results come out soon. Should be this month but can be delayed 3 months.

[wasp8] 15/12/2020 14:59

I can't see a Divi whilst they have CBILS, but may be wrong. You are right though, only a small divi and we should see a kick up in price.

Need to understand the nature of those loans and the terms attached - disclosures will need some real careful reading.

[mach100] 04/12/2020 15:20

Fair points Wasp. It was 210p on listing first day after a 25% jump on the day. Over ten times the current share price so I argue that a lot of bad news is in the price today. If we get pleasantly surprised by the masks, flooring and car industry back in gear then none of that is in the price today. And companies paying down debt and reducing interest costs is something I like. Then they can pay a divi and come to the attention of income seekers.

[wasp8] 03/12/2020 12:51

Before Tax:
Loss in 19 - £1,544k
Loss in 18 - £1,734k
Profit in 17 - £207k - but the JV made £190k so the rest was basically breakeven
Profit in 16 - £186k - but this is after a technical gain of £327k on the acquisition of the other half of the former Swedish JV and £115k made by the UK JV, so the rest was a loss.

So essentially loss making 3 of the last 4 years and marginal in the profitable year. And will be loss making this year.

Profit before IPO was £899k so PLC costs have taken a toll.

Debt is down £1.9m because the shareholders lobbed £3.5m in (£3.3m after costs).

They had £3.5m net cash immediately after IPO - now c. £2.3m of net debt even after that additional £3.3m from the shareholders....

[mach100] 01/12/2020 18:33

charo30 Nov '20 - 14:24 - 88 of 90

"never made any real profit.ceo massively overpaid.
highly speculative stock."

Autins, which is based in Rugby, reported a pre-tax loss of £1.7m for the year to 30 September 2018 compared to a profit of £207,000 in the prior 12 months. 300k profit in 2016. Last two years have been lossmaking but debt was paid down by £1.9m which was more than the net loss. So ok the last two years have been tough but Autins was in line in February and may emerge from Covid times a much stronger player. We shall see.

[mach100] 30/11/2020 22:40

Disagree Charo. Most of the gloom is in the price anyway. CEO and company quick off the mark to move into PPE. Doubled flooring sales within a year. Last year's finals before Covid started to have an impact saw improved gross profit on lower revenue and net debt reduced substantially. In February the company was in line with expectations.
I don't think 60k is a lot for a chairman. Hopefully the car market is opening up again and the electric car market is going to be big and hopefully AUTG will be a beneficiary. Neptune might be a hidden gem which will be an asset even in a post-covid world. There have been a lot of sells and the price has held up. If the results when they come are calamitous this could easily halve. If they are very good then over time this could go back to 60 or 80p. Watch this space.

[wasp8] 30/11/2020 16:50

A problem in AIM - cost vs quality of management.

And yes, essentially £300k on a CEO for an AIM business that's losing money and in a highly competitive market seems massive.

Chairman at £60k as well...

[charo] 30/11/2020 14:24

never made any real profit.ceo massively overpaid.
highly speculative stock.

[wasp8] 30/11/2020 12:45

Either competition driving price down, an overstock position that needs clearing, or the auto work has come back enough that they can't spare the capacity to support.

But as you say a steep cut.

Maybe points to thoughts on respirator approval - why cut if about to be signed off to a higher standard?

Don't know - anyway, the price uptick has held which is nice at least!

[mach100] 29/11/2020 19:25

Not sure what to make of the face masks being reduced to £3.99 for 4 on their own website and £5.39 on Amazon. Production might have been scaled up considerably to make it viable or else competition has seen a drop off in sales. A fairly steep cut if so. At £4 given the filter element they seem decent value so should eliminate some of the criticism they receive in reviews. From a commercial point of view as an investor I hope it stacks up. We shall see.

[mach100] 26/11/2020 23:31

Thanks Wasp. I think it might still come good as though I can see why you have been disappointed there is possibly a recovery underway, Been buying every month here but skipped last month to put money elsewhere. Might pick more up in December now there is a hint of movement. Certification news is imminent but perhaps delayed by Covid. I say hold on for better times.

[wasp8] 26/11/2020 17:49

Hi Mach - I'm at about 45p as have some from when the former CEO joined and then some around the 40p mark and again at round 18p.

Painful....kept convincing myself to lower the average and it'd come good...

[mach100] 24/11/2020 21:10

Good evening Wasp. The article was 12th November and is clearly unrelated to any rise today. I too have disdain for suspicious share price movements. But the second trade was £10000 which is a fair bit to pay when in theory the investors should have been deterred by the spread. I would say it is someone looking at bombed out stock. If it was insider trading then the person would have to be crazy with just five trades posted as it would be easy to discern. Can I ask what price you bought in at wasp? You seem fairly stung. I bought in at 38p, 28p, 22p, 20 and some at 15p and 16p. My average is about 19.7p.

[wasp8] 24/11/2020 15:51

But if there is something behind it with no newsflow that's a bit suspicious?

This is why I'm so pessimistic on the articles - a big price sensitive bit of newsflow would have required an RNS and nothing seems forthcoming.

[wasp8] 24/11/2020 15:50

Maybe - horribly illiquid though, so a small buy (or sell) has a disproportionate effect.

5 trades in the last two days though is a lot in this stock...

ANd someone paid nearly 19.5p!

[mach100] 24/11/2020 13:49

Up nearly 10% on just one trade. Hopefully something behind the rise rather than just an idle speculative rise. It is not like buying has driven this up though the trade size was reasonable. Maybe we will get some new posters too.

[mach100] 23/11/2020 19:08

Wasp yes sorry I should have checked and YES I did mean the Chief Executive. That wasn't a paid for ad but a newspaper report and no way could he mislead. 4m Euro of sales ( achieved ) in the last year which can't be the estimate as it is in the past tense. That was jam yesterday and hopefully growing still.

I think you are overly pessimistic though a lot of fellow holders have exited in recent times. The small PI selling is more a function of lack of news flow, no announcing of contracts and a poorly performing chart. It often pays to buy in doom and sell in boom as you know. I really hope we get an update soon about EU certification and perhaps results next month.

[wasp8] 23/11/2020 17:28

Don't get me wrong as a holder I'd like a turnaround, but I'm not hopeful.

100k capacity is per their own Amazon web page.

And pieces in paid for ads don't make facts - let's see what the ARA's say when they come out.

I see the CEO states that they're up to €4m sales, but is that run rate, promised, actual? Too much jam tomorrow on this stock since day 1.

And when you say you like the Chairman do you mean Adam Attwood?

Electric vehicles may be good in the very long term, but car companies don't change overnight - this is a long long play.

Mothballed factories? Two sites in the UK plus a lab and one each in Germany and Sweden. Not sure how much capacity they have and that Neptune line will take a chunk.

As I say, would be delighted to be proved wrong, but a very salesy CEO from a marketing background may be spinning it up some...

[mach100] 20/11/2020 15:30

Wasps a few comments on your post 75. Shipping is not free. That is an Amazon offer on your first Order. As they are UK manufactured the shipping of chinese masks plus import tariffs etc must be expensive anyway. Weighed against cheaper production costs of course but perhaps delivery and availability too. Kaminski-cook says they can scale up to a million masks ( posted the article before here )so perhaps your 100k figure needs revising. They started from zero at the height of the crisis with no notice so I think they can scale up further and they have mothballed factories which I guess could be used for European production.

Also many manufacturing companies have recovered on Vaccine hopes so why should Auto be any different? The phasing out of Diesel cars will create demand on a longer horizon. The electric vehicle angle is also interesting. Still hopeful of a turnaround here.

[mach100] 20/11/2020 15:04

Wasp good analysis above! I like the Chairman. Seems upbeat and clued in.

Not sure if you have seen this?

Autins group chief executive Gareth Kaminski-Cook explains how his company helps the car industry make cars that are lighter and less noisy - and how it has diversified during the pandemic to survive and thrive
Finding ways to improve cars’ acoustic and thermal performance is big business as consumers demand ever more comfortable and quieter vehicles. It’s why top brands including Aston Martin, Bentley Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo and BMW all work with the AIM-listed Autins Group to design their cars.

The Rugby-based designer, manufacturer and supplier of acoustic and thermal insulation products is a leader in the €1bn European noise vibration and harshness (NVH) market, where manufacturers compete to enhance the passenger as well as driving experience. “We are brought in to remove the shake, rattle and roll,” says Autins group chief executive Gareth Kaminski-Cook. “Carmakers come to us with a concept for a new design and we help them find solutions to the NVH problems they experience.”

The company launched as Automotive Insulations in 1966 and its turnover has now risen to around £30m, with 75pc of sales in the UK
The company also provides solutions for commercial vehicles, such as buses and heavy plant machinery, to make drivers more comfortable in their cabins.

The current challenge for Autins and its automotive clients is around the growth in electric vehicles, where the lack of an internal combustion engine means there are different sound issues to solve. “When driving an electric car you hear things you might not have heard in the past, such as road noise, the air conditioning, the changing of gears and other localised sound,” explains Kaminski-Cook.

The company will discuss specific noise issues a manufacturer is having, then test different materials at a range of noise frequencies to come up with a solution. For example, if a car battery gives out a high-pitched sound, Autins will suggest what material to use to create a barrier or absorb the sound. Audio engineers may also support on-site customer testing to experience the challenge first-hand. The company is also being asked to help producers make their cars lighter and more energy efficient.

Autins manufactures a patented, lightweight, high-performance acoustic material with thermal properties. Called Neptune, the non-woven microfibre product provides acoustic absorption and improves performance by around 40pc. The company has already supplied the material to a number of electric cars, where its performance is particularly suited to create more comfortable sound and energy control.

Autins’ product development team is based at its technical centre in Nuneaton, where engineers offer ongoing support to customers. They also work collaboratively with car manufacturers and with suppliers to discover solutions to NVH challenges by analysing existing products and new materials.

The company launched as Automotive Insulations in 1966 and its turnover has now risen to around £30m, with 75pc of sales in the UK. The company wants to reduce this to around 60pc within five years, though, by using its continental sites to grow sales across Europe.

It has a state-of-the-art production site in Gothenburg, Sweden, for example, used for manufacturing a semi-rigid, low-density polyurethane foam used in the exterior and engine bay compartments of vehicles.

We are brought in to remove the shake, rattle and roll
Autins group chief executive Gareth Kaminski-Cook
In future, the company wants to be less reliant on the automotive industry and it is already diversifying into other sectors including flooring, industrial, PPE, offices and apparel. “In the office sector, numerous studies have confirmed that noise is an ambient cause of stress and affects job satisfaction. A good acoustic office workplace boosts productivity and employee well-being,” says Kaminski-Cook. Meanwhile the flooring part of the business, which provides special acoustic underlay products and is run out of Autins’ German facility in Dusseldorf, has seen sales double from €2m to €4m in the past 12 months.

Kaminski-Cook is confident about the next few years after seeing how well the business has adapted in 2020 to counter the impact of Covid-19. It has demonstrated strong leadership by being agile enough to make quick business decisions.

For example it has generated an additional £1m of revenue by retooling its Neptune conversion and assembly site in Rugby to produce face masks. “We always knew our material had filtration properties, but with our day-to-day work in the automotive sector keeping us very busy we’d never really explored its potential any further.

“The car industry has taken a hit during the Covid-19 crisis with multiple original equipment manufacturer factory shutdowns, so we found we had the time to develop this further,” says Kaminski-Cook. Strong communication has also been critical during the Covid-19 pandemic to keep employees and clients informed. “We have been sending out videos from the leadership team to bind everyone to a common objective and remind them of the value they bring to our business, which offers very niche but crucial acoustic, thermal and filtration management expertise.”

[wasp8] 19/11/2020 12:25

Flooring up £21k YoY in the H1 results.

New multi year contract of €1.8m started in July, so at best 3 months in the current period so c.£400k.

Total flooring revenue per last ARA £1.5m, so it may make £2.0m this year. Maybe....

And masks is a funny one - £0.4m of sales by the end of June so they may make £1.0m (just) - but how profitable given they're £10 (gross) for 4 on amazon including packing and shipping and the capacity is only 100k masks per week.

And still a massive drop off from auto with a big auto style overhead. Segmental reporting will be interesting this year.

[mach100] 18/11/2020 21:06

Flooring is more like 16% of revenue now and has doubled in the last year. Plus £1m from facemasks.

Meanwhile the flooring part of the business, which provides special acoustic underlay products and is run out of Autins’ German facility in Dusseldorf, has seen sales double from €2m to €4m in the past 12 months.

[wasp8] 06/11/2020 13:55

I take it you're assuming that they will report in December (which they've done twice in 4 cycles - Feb/March on the other two). Depends on the auditor view on going concern given COVID and the state the balance sheet is in post CBILS. We're a bit blind here.

Flooring at less than 10% revenues can't be enough to carry that overhead - they were loss making with full revenue in H1.

And based on what I've read and seen of that mask there is no way it passes as a respirator - so exactly what are they testing it for.

As a holder that would want some good news I'd love an uptick, but I'm afraid I'm not terribly optimistic.

Best case here is someone comes in and mops them up for the Neptune Tech (if it's that good).

[mach100] 05/11/2020 22:06

Well we shall see. The company have not been idle during the lockdown. May companies are faring better in lockdown 2 as there have been lessons learned from the last time. They moved quickly to mothball factories and have at least a revenue stream in contrast to others. We will know next month. Maybe the home flooring side is doing well too as many home improvement businesses have actually done well during the shift to working from home. i am cautiously optimistic. Some news on EU certification would definitely be welcome too.