Autins Share Discussion Threads

[mach100] 20/1/2021 18:35

Evening Wasp. TBF not one of them vests unless the share price almost doubles . Of course today's near 10% fall gives them more work to do to make it. It is the actual overall amount of them rather tean the strike price that staggers me. For a company which could breach its banking covenants and has been sucking in loans left right and centre as well as using furlough it actually beggars belief. Fortunately they are some years out but still. I still got 605 of holding so will see how the market runs with this. Gonna sell at 16p on the bid though and take a small loss overall if it hits it. There were some late trades declared today from yesterday which looks like some punters exiting. Interested in your analysis WASP when you have looked at the results. Sorry to say your 46p price is looking very remote!

[wasp8] 20/1/2021 15:41

Hi Mach100 - haven't had a chance to digest properly as yet, but those LTIPs/Management rewards are hugely excessive. Someone needs to have a serious go at the advisors who signed that off. Those options are 7.2% of issued share cap for what look like very very modest targets. I'd hope Schroeders give them a kicking over that!!!

[mach100] 20/1/2021 15:08

Wasp what is your take? I sold a third of my holdings today for an 18% profit befire the fall which was sealed by a second seller. The risk of breaching covenants applying to the CBIL loans spooked me though the company are confident of making the EBITDA required. if some buyers come in we could see a rise again and I would definitely sell into it. The risk reward curve has shifted towards risk.

[mach100] 20/1/2021 10:00

Disappointed with the results. Won't be adding on those as some red flags in there. Nice to see options vesting higher up though they are very generous remuneration given the company is lossmaking. Will assess the market reaction before deciding but seem better plays out there given the red flags I see in the results.The capital structure is weak.

[mach100] 16/1/2021 10:27

Morning Wasp. Although divis would boost the share price they are not must haves when you consider the potential Capital Growth here. That is far higher than any divi. However to achieve capital growth the company has to be on a sound footing or show clear evidence that it is tackling debt and growing revenue. I am hopeful it is doing both in a difficult environment. The demand for cars has not gone away though there is less driving currently. And the Vaccine may encourage pent-up emand to be released. In which case the current share price will look ridiculous. The main issue I have is lack of newsflow. They should be consistent with the results date. No need to push it out to March. This is very much a gambling stock. Luckily my average is about 18p now so I have some margin. Still I am hopeful my punt here will pay off.

[wasp8] 13/1/2021 15:00

Hi Mach100 - my issue is that it's not going to be in their control. I.e. the CBILS money and other new debt this time last year blocks dividends. And I still cannot see that ventilator coming through without a massive redesign. I can't cash out as yet...

[mach100] 07/1/2021 13:30

Afternoon Wasp. Not so sure on the divi honestly as you can't blame companies for conserving cash and/or paying down debt which involves a coupon. Sure a restoration of the divi would boost the share price but I don't think that is realistic. Better to pay down debt and hopefully show growth in flooring, some recovery in Acoustics and a useful revenue stream in the masks. And news on a ventilator using their filtration system. Well I could cash out now as I am up about 20% on my purchases but will hang on and see where this is going.

[wasp8] 07/1/2021 13:12

100% - announcement in March when they're pretty much at the half year - and then have to really share some view on full year. Nice to see some buying - underpins the new level and will hopefully hold. Depends what those results show and the debt restrictions. If it blocks divis then it will turn a lot of people off..

[mach100] 07/1/2021 10:49

The buying is continuing to be fair as well as sizeable sells but the share price holding up quite well. I agree with WASP that the results probably won't come until March. The car industry is definitely suffering from the Lockdown's but I think the flooring and masks will do well. I do wish the company would bang the drum more though as information is thin on the ground and disencentivises investment due to lack of engagement.

[wasp8] 05/1/2021 12:11

Just some buying I think - so so illiquid there is next to nothing that needs to happen to move the needle. But welcome nonetheless. Will be interesting to see what lockdown does in terms of announcement timings etc.

[mach100] 05/1/2021 11:37

Good call Wasp on results. Nice jump yesterday which has put me modestly in profit. My 38p buy has skewered the performance but buys at 15 and 16p have helped me. No idea what prompted a 20% rise and sadly no follow on rise today but glad to see a correction in the share price at last.

[wasp8] 16/12/2020 22:26

No way will it be this week (or next). Never announce on a Friday - aiming for a Tuesday or Weds and they will assume the investor community has gone home next week. They have all the way until March as don't have to file stats until end of that month and need 21 days notice - look what they did for the Sept 18 results... I think they said 12 months interest free - its the other conditions that interest me. A lot of these come with blocks on dividends and other restrictions that don't help shareholder value...

[mach100] 15/12/2020 15:54

The British Business Bank's CBILS CBILS facilitates commercial finance to viable small businesses, who are unable to obtain the funding they need due to insufficient security. The borrower will always be 100% liable for the debt. Currently, there will be up to five months of interest-free loans available through CBILS, which may be attractive solutions of eligible businesses. However, the product is subject to affordability, so Think Business Loans recommends running any application for CBILS in comparison to another and being mindful of the potential drawdown timelines. Seems fair but Idk if Autins got this one. Just checking on whether results come out soon. Should be this month but can be delayed 3 months.

[wasp8] 15/12/2020 14:59

I can't see a Divi whilst they have CBILS, but may be wrong. You are right though, only a small divi and we should see a kick up in price. Need to understand the nature of those loans and the terms attached - disclosures will need some real careful reading.

[mach100] 04/12/2020 15:20

Fair points Wasp. It was 210p on listing first day after a 25% jump on the day. Over ten times the current share price so I argue that a lot of bad news is in the price today. If we get pleasantly surprised by the masks, flooring and car industry back in gear then none of that is in the price today. And companies paying down debt and reducing interest costs is something I like. Then they can pay a divi and come to the attention of income seekers.

[wasp8] 03/12/2020 12:51

Before Tax: Loss in 19 - £1,544k Loss in 18 - £1,734k Profit in 17 - £207k - but the JV made £190k so the rest was basically breakeven Profit in 16 - £186k - but this is after a technical gain of £327k on the acquisition of the other half of the former Swedish JV and £115k made by the UK JV, so the rest was a loss. So essentially loss making 3 of the last 4 years and marginal in the profitable year. And will be loss making this year. Profit before IPO was £899k so PLC costs have taken a toll. Debt is down £1.9m because the shareholders lobbed £3.5m in (£3.3m after costs). They had £3.5m net cash immediately after IPO - now c. £2.3m of net debt even after that additional £3.3m from the shareholders....

[mach100] 01/12/2020 18:33

charo30 Nov '20 - 14:24 - 88 of 90 "never made any real profit.ceo massively overpaid. highly speculative stock." Autins, which is based in Rugby, reported a pre-tax loss of £1.7m for the year to 30 September 2018 compared to a profit of £207,000 in the prior 12 months. 300k profit in 2016. Last two years have been lossmaking but debt was paid down by £1.9m which was more than the net loss. So ok the last two years have been tough but Autins was in line in February and may emerge from Covid times a much stronger player. We shall see.

[mach100] 30/11/2020 22:40

Disagree Charo. Most of the gloom is in the price anyway. CEO and company quick off the mark to move into PPE. Doubled flooring sales within a year. Last year's finals before Covid started to have an impact saw improved gross profit on lower revenue and net debt reduced substantially. In February the company was in line with expectations. I don't think 60k is a lot for a chairman. Hopefully the car market is opening up again and the electric car market is going to be big and hopefully AUTG will be a beneficiary. Neptune might be a hidden gem which will be an asset even in a post-covid world. There have been a lot of sells and the price has held up. If the results when they come are calamitous this could easily halve. If they are very good then over time this could go back to 60 or 80p. Watch this space.

[wasp8] 30/11/2020 16:50

A problem in AIM - cost vs quality of management. And yes, essentially £300k on a CEO for an AIM business that's losing money and in a highly competitive market seems massive. Chairman at £60k as well...

[charo] 30/11/2020 14:24

never made any real profit.ceo massively overpaid. highly speculative stock.

[wasp8] 30/11/2020 12:45

Either competition driving price down, an overstock position that needs clearing, or the auto work has come back enough that they can't spare the capacity to support. But as you say a steep cut. Maybe points to thoughts on respirator approval - why cut if about to be signed off to a higher standard? Don't know - anyway, the price uptick has held which is nice at least!

[mach100] 29/11/2020 19:25

Not sure what to make of the face masks being reduced to £3.99 for 4 on their own website and £5.39 on Amazon. Production might have been scaled up considerably to make it viable or else competition has seen a drop off in sales. A fairly steep cut if so. At £4 given the filter element they seem decent value so should eliminate some of the criticism they receive in reviews. From a commercial point of view as an investor I hope it stacks up. We shall see.

[mach100] 26/11/2020 23:31

Thanks Wasp. I think it might still come good as though I can see why you have been disappointed there is possibly a recovery underway, Been buying every month here but skipped last month to put money elsewhere. Might pick more up in December now there is a hint of movement. Certification news is imminent but perhaps delayed by Covid. I say hold on for better times.

[wasp8] 26/11/2020 17:49

Hi Mach - I'm at about 45p as have some from when the former CEO joined and then some around the 40p mark and again at round 18p. Painful....kept convincing myself to lower the average and it'd come good...

[mach100] 24/11/2020 21:10

Good evening Wasp. The article was 12th November and is clearly unrelated to any rise today. I too have disdain for suspicious share price movements. But the second trade was £10000 which is a fair bit to pay when in theory the investors should have been deterred by the spread. I would say it is someone looking at bombed out stock. If it was insider trading then the person would have to be crazy with just five trades posted as it would be easy to discern. Can I ask what price you bought in at wasp? You seem fairly stung. I bought in at 38p, 28p, 22p, 20 and some at 15p and 16p. My average is about 19.7p.