Augean Share Discussion Threads

[qvg] 25/8/2021 08:32

glad I waited!

[site manager] 25/8/2021 07:14

Well done to those here who predicted this.

[pdosullivan] 24/8/2021 23:36

Very interesting developments.

[sharw] 11/8/2021 22:29

..or rather corrected - the price was 285p

[pdosullivan] 11/8/2021 17:42

There was a trade - subsequently cancelled - at 316p

[gargoyle2] 11/8/2021 16:44

Looks like just a few sellers to me. What am I missing?

[pdosullivan] 11/8/2021 16:40

Very interesting share price developments today

[dearg doom] 05/8/2021 11:16

Holding back from offering my Augean stock to the market, just in case of another bid.

Of course, I'd like to see a bidding competition. How likely is probably small if at all. Even, happier to stay involved with a share offer.

Other companies did have plenty of time to consider a bid. Maybe HMRC clouds it for other bidders. Had thought of Augean as an acquirer and not a target itself.

Will watch for RNSs daily to see how events unfold happen. Nothing changes will probably be the worst that will happen.

[kinwah] 04/8/2021 21:21

I've noticed the BIFF share price has been very strong over the last few months despite my profit-taking. I wonder if they might fancy a tilt at AUG with a part paper part cash offer.

[morro] 03/8/2021 10:19

With the landfill assets they have you have to wonder whether others will come in with better offers, and the valuation point made by the Gresham guy is interesting. However a large amount of shares were sold yesterday, suggesting some holders didn't think there was likely to be any further offers.

[gargoyle2] 03/8/2021 09:51

Gresham House Strategic (GHS) deputy manager Laurie Hulse has said a takeover battle could erupt at Augean (AUG) after the waste management business’s board recommended a 280p per share cash offer late on Friday.

The bid from an infrastructure-focused subsidiary of Morgan Stanley values the company at approximately £294m and the shares at a nearly 21% premium to their level of 284.5p in late May, before talks began.

Hulse said GHS, a £55m investment trust, had first invested in Augean in 2017, when the business became distressed after a period of average operational management, followed by an investigation by the taxman.

‘Our conviction in the business came from our support for executive chairman Jim Meredith’s recovery strategy of simplification and disposal. After conducting specialist tax due diligence, we also concluded the market may have overreacted to the HMRC landfill tax investigation,’; he said.

Gresham House said the 280p offer price represents a 590% return on the trust’s investment. Depending on the outcome of a tax claim, up to a further 20p per share of loan notes could be also issued.

‘Given the attraction of the operating model, the level of wider private equity bid activity and the valuation Augean trades on, it would not be surprising to see other interest,’ said Hulse.

[reabank] 02/8/2021 20:32

Haven't seen anything in the press beyond pro forma rehashes of the stock exchange announcement - Augean gets very little publicity. Given the share price today has settled at about the true value of the offer doesn't seem any great expectation of a counter - bid. Hopefully something will turn up.

[morro] 02/8/2021 16:53

Last year the Notice of interim results came on the 13th July. Curious the directors have chosen not to make this very standard announcement.

[morro] 02/8/2021 16:47

I think a dividend should also be factored in, which according to the Annual Report for 2020 would be paid for 2021.

[kirkie001] 02/8/2021 14:49

Well, I've sold out - made about 70% on purchase price, so quite happy with the end result, although disappointed I couldn't hold longer. Now, where to with the proceeds?

[revoman] 02/8/2021 12:26

Any press reports over the weekend? Strange that this came out at the last possible moment on a Friday, like it's trying to be buried, except I don't quite get it as you can't bury it! Anyhow, seems to me there's a bit more value in there so a counter offer wouldn't surprise me at all.

[morro] 02/8/2021 08:58

Was expecting more. At the very least shareholders should have been entitled to all the potential tax repayment.

[pdosullivan] 30/7/2021 23:04

Looking at Bloomberg consensus, based off the closing of 295p AUG is on 15.0x 2022 earnings, but given that it is expected to finish 2022 with £29m of net cash - 9% of the market cap - that is closer to a 13.5x ex cash multiple, which does seem skinny for a company with a real moat. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. https://tbifund.wordpress.com/2021/07/30/stocks-update-30-july-2021/

[reabank] 30/7/2021 17:56

Oof - not me. Given it made, by my reckoning, £9m of post tax cash in the 2nd half of 2020 (i.e. once the market was past coronavirus) I'd expect an offer in the £3.40 / £3.50 range and £4.00 not out of the question. The 20p tax settlement arrangement particularly unwelcome, Morgan Stanley will presumably run the tax cases post sale but have no incentive to get a good result. But looks like a done deal given acceptances from board and major investors. I'll be hanging on in hope of a better offer and at the least to throw my 0.001% holding onto the no deal pile.

[site manager] 30/7/2021 17:16

Well done all holders.
I know I`m happy with that.

[morton2011] 23/7/2021 14:53

The tax tribunal was for a part of the tax claim for pre 2016 materials that HMRC wanted higher rate landfill for. Augean had paid lower rate but started paying higher rate in 2016 following new guidance end of 2015. So it has little impact on future underlying earnings.HMRC could not appeal, pay up and the rest of the case continues.It makes the value of Augean simpler to assess as wining is a one off payment of £16 million approx + cost recovery paid back to Augean and thus gets added to the price a buyer could pay. If it is appealed up to a buyer to make their own assessment, the Board will maintain (rightly) it expects to be paid and that should be reflected in the offer.

[gargoyle2] 22/7/2021 11:29

And if there is an appeal, the deal falls through completely?

[faz] 22/7/2021 11:10

I suppose you cannot announce a conditional deal but I would expect there is a deal which is acceptable assuming no appeal, or this extension would not have been asked for

[gargoyle2] 22/7/2021 08:12

Not sure what happens if HMRC does file a notice of appeal though..

[gargoyle2] 22/7/2021 08:11

19 August key date now -- PUSU deadline and (as far as I can tell) the deadline for HMRC to appeal both on that date