Augean Share Discussion Threads

[value hound] 05/12/2018 17:30

I wonder if he's made his own judgement call ref HMRC and deems it to be an invalid bill? Cos if that does prove to be the case, the shares should be more like 90p-£1 imo (closer to £90-100m m/c)

[woozle1] 05/12/2018 17:06

I just hope he does not try and take this private on the cheap!
w1

[interceptor2] 05/12/2018 16:46

And he has bought yet more but a larger amount this time. Seems like he his conviction is growing.

[woozle1] 30/11/2018 21:27

He's not here for a haircut!

[molatovkid] 30/11/2018 14:59

Mills at it again....

[lbo] 28/11/2018 15:52

Gold Investors Target Executives With Less Skin in the Game https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-27/coalition-of-gold-investors-says-exec-ownership-key-to-returns

[woozle1] 27/11/2018 11:58

When you see an insider like Chris Mills buying it's either a bluff or HMRC concerns are overdone. It is likely that Augean and HMRC will settle for a substantially lower number.
w1

[brummy_git] 27/11/2018 11:55

Clearly a couple of big professional investors believe the stock is worth far more than the current shareprice, even if HMRC's £30m tax claim proves broadly correct.

[brummy_git] 27/11/2018 11:54

Clearly a couple of big professional investors believe the stock is worth far more than the current shareprice, even if HMRC's £30m tax claim proves broadly correct.

[molatovkid] 27/11/2018 11:27

So what am I missing here?

We have landfill tax assessments circa £30m from HMRC. About half the market cap.
We claim that there are no grounds in these assessments and will contest them....but what if we lose?

We have only just turned cash positive and current trading looks very promising.
Against this background we have stake-building.

Why?

[chalkyboard] 25/11/2018 16:29

Yes, Chris Mills is a bright guy. Very rarely over-pays, and more than often loads up deeply under-valued stocks, like Augean

[woozle1] 25/11/2018 16:07

He took Dowding & Mills private and made a killing!
w1

[chalkyboard] 25/11/2018 15:51

If Chris Mills were to bid for the company, then I suspect it might well draw out a few other interested parties. Clearly though with over 20% of the equity already, he would be in the box seat.

[cerrito] 24/11/2018 15:52

He is a smart chap and thus I go on the basis that he has a good insight into the taxation issues and having bought 0.75pc of the company feels any payment to HMRC will be minimal.
After the last few weeks, good to see the price of one of my shares having a bounce up rather than down.

[woozle1] 24/11/2018 15:01

My main concern is that Mills and mates might have enough shares to take this private on the cheap!
w1

[lbo] 24/11/2018 10:17

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1542905122805993000/director-dealings-augean-investment-managers-non-exec-buys-shares.aspx

[woozle1] 21/11/2018 13:42

My guess is EPS of 8.4. That's a p/e of 6 times.
w1

[lbo] 21/11/2018 11:32

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/209662/augean-on-the-front-foot-as-it-expects-profits-to-beat-market-forecasts-209662.html

[cerrito] 02/11/2018 12:54

I can understand the decrease in the share price today.
I note that for the South this is a pre-assessment whereas for the North the two October RNS referred to a final assessment. I have no
idea of the significance of this.
I have been trying to work out how much the HMRC have come down in their claims.
The Prelim statement referred to a 53% reduction for one quarter in 2014 for the South.
The 3.4.18 RNS referred for a three year nine month period for the North and a four year period for the South.
That was for pre interest £37.8m combined; using the 73/27 South/North split suggested by the data we have for 2013
that would suggest that today's preassessment for the South has come down from £28m in April to £18m today.
Appreciate that there are quite a few assumptions in the above but per my reading are the best we have.
Critiques welcome.
I note no repeat of the word cooperative used in the April RNS or positive used in the prelims to describe their relationship with HMRC.
It would appear this is going to tribunal with all the expense involved.
We have no idea if the HMRC believe in their case or just feel they cannot back down.
Well done to those who exited at 50p+ as we are really flying blind.
Views of others welcome

[cerrito] 21/10/2018 20:23

The market seems to think that the RNS earlier this week on the reduced final assessment for the North for the 8/13 to 7/14 period was good news. I am not so sure and I wonder if the North are now using the same criteria as in the South-ref the decrease in assessment for the South noted in the Annual Report. I am a bit concerned that HMRC still talking about a big sum.
Two other issues.
This week’s RNS refers to a final assessment and I do not understand the significance of the use of the word final.
Second I am assuming that AUG have not changed their policy for the payment of tax for the period post Aug 17. The fact that landfill tax paid was £4619K in H1 18 and £444k in H1 17 would suggest not.

[woozle1] 24/9/2018 07:12

EPS forecast was raised from 6.37 to 7.4p. I'm v happy with current governance as the previous one was not delivering and it probably costs less.

It looks like they took a capex holiday to get the debt down. My guess is that they will let cash accumulate until this HMRC issue is settled. That seems more sensible than relying on external cash (debt/equity) to settle the claim.

I agree that until we have more clarity on HMRC the shares will be depressed.

w1

[woozle1] 20/9/2018 15:55

7.4p is the new forecast. P/E of 7.
w1

[woozle1] 19/9/2018 07:26

It was 6.37 EPS. Don't know the new forecasts

[cerrito] 18/9/2018 23:27

Anyone have an idea of what the Company would have regarded the current market expectations they reference in the RNS?
See the website has nothing on the presentation given this morning.