Audioboom Share Discussion Threads

[buggy] 11/10/2021 15:09

hxxps://www.salesforce.com/uk/customer-success-stories/audioboom/

[wooty01] 10/10/2021 18:24

I thought you meant GBP 11.42 but you quoted time GMT !

[mdchand] 08/10/2021 19:25

Buy @ 11.42 for 9478 shares seems to have pushed Boom higher again. Interesting that someone is taking a sizeable position before the next interims.

[buggy] 08/10/2021 12:03

hxxps://audioboom.medium.com/hit-podcasts-the-way-i-heard-it-with-mike-rowe-and-redhanded-sign-with-audioboom-b8878205b3

[bagpuss lives] 08/10/2021 11:43

Looking back over a few bits last night and in line with the figure I was getting I came to the conclusion that the AAA bid was a clumsy way of Candy and friends going for a win:win that didn't come off. Initially I thought his £25 get out clause was strange but I think they really thought a counter bid would come in and that was the minimum they would have taken based on their knowledge of trading at the time. If a bid didn't materialise I think they thought they could get it through with the 50% of support they had at a knockdown price.

I didn't really notice just how rapidly the ad revenue per listener had increased which together with continuing increases to listeners metrics has pushed the monthly revenue to another level in the current year. I heard Stuart Last say in an interview the other day that their was a limit to this increase but that we weren't quite their yet.

Bagpuss

[mdchand] 08/10/2021 08:05

Bagpuss - thanks for sharing.

My methodology underplayed the progress in August but as an exercise, hopefully gives investors a sense that anything over $16m for Q3 means business is still growing on an exponential basis.

So we have est targets of $16m to $21m for Q3 prior to the all important Q4.

Anything below $16m will be disappointing (not that I can see it based on August's figures). Anything above $20m will IMO probably cause another rerate.

As for Q4. Last year we saw 30% uplift over Q3. Will update my spreadsheet after Q3 actual figures are released.

[wooty01] 08/10/2021 08:05

Sounds very reasonable and plausible bagpuss.

[bagpuss lives] 07/10/2021 23:03

Seeing as MDCHand put his numbers out there. I will share mine as I have been updating them tonight.
The numbers are a bit out there but I have taken some of the wording and emphasis on the last update so bear with me.

Before I start these numbers are for me and me alone. Ridicule is welcomed and do your own research.

All in dollars.
So 6 months to June 21 was $22.8 Million(avg $3.8 million per month)and of that Q2 was $13.3 ($4.3 mill per month).

August was $7 million!!!

So to the wording."the Board now expects that Audioboom will generate revenues for the year ending 31 December 2021 significantly in excess of the Board's expectations at the time of the Company's half year results"
The 6 month revenue was $22.8 so they must have been expecting to double and then some at the issue of the results so say $50-$60 million. They then said significantly ahead not just ahead only 8 weeks later. So whats that $60-$70 million.

$70 would give the second half revenue of $47.2million ( $7.8 million per month). August was $7 million so is that so far fetched?

I've therefore set the following targets in my workings:
Q3 - $19.5 to $20.5 million with EBITDA profit of $1.0 to $1.3 million
Year to Dec 21 - $65 to $70 Million Ebitda of $3.5 to $5 million with an overall profit after tax
Year to Dec 22 - $110 million to $130 million. Ebitda of $10 to $15 million.

18 month price target of £31.50

Bagpuss

[ps56] 07/10/2021 13:59

Each price movement offers the same buy / sell opportunity to everyone. Buy low on weakness - sell into strength at highs. If you have bought too high, you just need to wait it out!

[ps56] 07/10/2021 12:40

Price action here is super-sensitive to relatively small buys/sells. Due, I assume, to the small number of shares available overall. (IMHO)

[hazl] 07/10/2021 12:10

What happened Dow futures looking up and Nasdaq?

[melegramforttongo] 07/10/2021 10:10

Come on GIRRUP lad

You know you want to get to 12 …

[buggy] 07/10/2021 09:43

Hazl,

Next year? Definitely more than £20. Put it this way, AAA were not willing to sell their shares in BOOM for anything less than £23, so one can argue that they potentially think that it is worth that now.

Other considerations will be if BOOM lists in US. I will definitely put that question again about US listing to Stuart in the Presentation call. Share price would have been in the 20s if we were listed in US, they understand the potential for the podcasting medium.

[hazl] 07/10/2021 08:54

What share price would you expect for that sort of profit buggy?

[buggy] 07/10/2021 08:53

Podcasts REDHANDED and THE WAY I HEARD IT joins Audioboom networks.

[buggy] 07/10/2021 08:26

Not quite sure it may hit $16M, but I will definitely not mind.

I am more looking forward to what will be the EBITDA profit. That will provide a sort of guidance for FY22, assuming we are still independent. I am expecting nothing less than $6M profit next year, ( going by the fact that they made an EBITDA profit of $0.5M in August which is not their strong month).

[mdchand] 07/10/2021 07:49

Q3 2020 was 6.5m in rev, which showed a 20% uplift over Q2 2020. Q2 2021 was 13.3m in rev. Apply a 20% uplift gives us 16m for Q3 2021.

Another way to estimate the numbers is to look at yr on yr growth.

Q2 2020 was 5.4m. Q2 2021 was 13.3m. Giving us 146% uplift. Apply 146% uplift to Q3 2020 (6.5m) also gives us 16m.

So, 16m is my estimate for q3.

[hazl] 07/10/2021 07:37

13 th October then!

[hazl] 07/10/2021 07:34

Stuart Last, CEO of Audioboom, said: "The launch of our production arm in the UK is an important step in our goal to become the leading British podcast creator. Our show development process will be supported by the significant level of audience insight that we capture through our platform".

[carmarthenshire] 05/10/2021 12:00

Shocked we have not fired up to a higher level after yesterdays news?????Oh well im still buying and look forwards for another good trading update this week or week after ?

[hazl] 04/10/2021 16:00

Ah I only just noticed.

[legendarybbq] 04/10/2021 10:55

Aaqua increasing their stakes here this is not over yet.