Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[erric] 28/2/2020 12:23

I’m ever so happy I stopped trading CFD’s back in 2011 after nearly being wiped out; there will be a lot of small investors suffering badly with margin calls, I fear.

Best course of action for me is a long walk in the rain, a nice bottle of Cabalie tonight and a quick glance at the 15 year FTSE graph to remind myself that markets never go in straight lines and never go in just one direction over time.

Next week may be a time for bottom fishing, particularly for some of the large dividend payers.

[rougepierre] 28/2/2020 12:04

Meanwhile the dealing spread in ATYM is 160/169.5 in 5,000 and perversely 159/169.5 in 1,000...

Might as well hold the rest...

[rougepierre] 28/2/2020 11:52

Are you sure...?

"The coronavirus outbreak has reached a "decisive point" and has "pandemic potential", World Health Organization head Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus says."



I'll come back to VILX later...

So here's my take...

We and therefore the markets haven't seen the worst yet...

When it hits the US we will see if there is a panic reaction...markets always overreact, which is a reasonable, inherent supposition in what you said Dudam...

However, the main reason why I have positioned our portfolios substantially for a crash/crack has been the inevitability of a recession eventually and a market correction sooner rather than later...

At the moment it may be only a correction but, as those on here know, my biggest worry has been the lack of liquidity in US markets so that eventually when the 'black swan' event happened there would be people unable to sell except at scary prices because there would be few if any conviction buyers...

However, if people can't sell they are forced to hold and eventually this gives substance to the market.

But take SOLG and ATYM as examples of longer term prospects...SOLG has massive copper and gold reserves...its only a matter of time before it gets taken out but, just look at the Mining Sector Constituents on LSE today...virtually every one is down and when people are scared they get rid of stock rather than suffer losses and everything gets affected...But SOLG will bounce sooner rather than later because of 1 its underlying fundamentals and 2 copper has long term value which inherently is increasing day by day. If you're not making money you can leave it in the ground, but if you're in consumer goods you risk going bust...

And so to ATYM...one of only two blue mining stocks today...again there is underlying value and also the immediate prospect of the AAU getting signed off; the eventual prospects for Touro; cash in the bank; and a commodity that will see increasing and pent up demand when we come through this pandemic...

Now, as to VILX, while waterloo understands this even better than me and has played to rather well, I believe he is not correct in one respect...

Yes VIX is highly volatile...between September to December 2018 and February 2019 it went from 13.12 to 30.11 and back to 13.51...

Its gone from 14.38 to over 40 in just seven trading days and, VILX went from 0.26 to 1.01 in just nine trading days...that's pretty volatile, but...

While VIX oscillated between 10.96 and 30.11 VILX fell pretty steadily from 137.2 to 0.26 in the last three years, from 10+ to 0.27 in the last 14 months and in the latter case VIX oscillated between 12.1 and 21.38...

So while there is little apparent correlation there, this is because VIX and VILX are fundamentally different...

VILX is DERIVED from VIX, but I have come to understand that it reflects the range between spot VIX and the shorter term contracts (i.e. 1 month, 2 month...)

That means that you have to have sustained higher VIX for an extended period and VILX slowly catches up, but the other side of the coin is that it would then fall slower as well...think of it as being a bit like a 90 day moving average of VIX...

The good news is VILX is spiking, but it now needs VIX to remain elevated...if that happens there is no reason why we shouldn't see VILX back over 3 or even over 10 again...

That is NOT a recommendation...you must form your own view, as Mr O and waterloo do...it may be that you buy VILX on a fallback or you don't touch it...it can never go bust like a company, but it could in theory fall back to 0.26 or below...that would however also need a sustained run of low VIX to happen and I can't see that occurring any time soon...

People are scared...stock is being dumped...significant amounts have been wiped off the copper shares I hold, but...collectively our VILX hedges have counteracted that to the tune of £30,000 sine VILX hit 0.26...

You pays your money...it all depends which end of the telescope you are looking down...

AIMHO as usual...

[waterloo01] 28/2/2020 09:48

If you can only deal by phone...don't. Too volatile. It works as a 2.25x short of the 1&2 mnth VIX futures.

[mronions] 28/2/2020 08:50

We should start aVILX chat .... I have this + other VOL positions ... and all our jumping. I have to say, that despite my +15 years in the market I don't really understand what I have. Where does this VILX go to ?

[rich1e] 27/2/2020 17:25

If you look at the two charts above, volume and price, the volume is just disappearing off the left of the chart. But you can still see that the volume, on the move up to 200p plus, is generally higher than that during the falling share price. Market makers match buyers and sellers, assuming that they try to keep a flat book, they are short of shares with the buying over 200p. Then luckily for them along comes Touro news and wider market falls. They start recouping their shares at a) less than 200p and b) creating a margin of safety for upcoming AAU news, they don’t want to be straight back to selling over 200p.

I once read that price can be faked, volume can’t. GLA

[rougepierre] 27/2/2020 16:28

Just switched 10,000 ATYM each at 1.685 into 4,000 KAZ each at 4.21p...

ATYM has way outperformed KAZ this year...spreading the risk...

OK I've taken a loss but the terms of trade have improved massively...

GLA

PS The market readily took them in 5,000s so there must still be a buyer in the background...

[rougepierre] 27/2/2020 15:55

This isn't the market makers...

Just look at VIX at 35.72...by far the highest level for over 9 years...

And US markets...Nasdaq, S&P, Dow all down 12% in just six trading days...

US 10 year yield at an all time low and...

Copper hitting more than a three year low...

There's more things happening than Atalaya...

And VILX hit 21.65 just two years ago, when VIX was only 29.06...

Patience is a virtue...

[mronions] 27/2/2020 14:33

@ llb ... exactly , we get AAU restored and we just keep going as we are, making loads of money. The market makers are messing with the stock price with the likes of nickel_investor on LSE timing of moves and his comments are interesting. Whilst he pushes other stocks. Could be a market maker.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/2/2020 09:48

#dudam99 I see the Copper price as the primary driver, the AAU restoration simply means we carry on doing what we are already doing.., how much of a discount is attached to the share price while this is resolved we will see soon enough, but I do not expect it to be that significant, 10% would be nice though.. :o)

[rougepierre] 27/2/2020 09:07

Husbod...pawsche...I never take advice from the Guardian. It's a guest article by a highly respected Harvard professor...Read it and then comment...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/2/2020 08:19

13th Jan was the TSJA ruling, with a 2 month window to get the AAU sorted, so 13.03.2020 latest for restoration of permits..

[rich1e] 27/2/2020 07:20

Some good news would be welcome around now, make us stand out from the crowd, attract some new investors and hopefully some of them will stick around.

[husbod] 26/2/2020 22:37

Lol - that makes two of us.

[pawsche] 26/2/2020 17:54

@rouge... I'd sooner take child-care advice from Gary Glitter than business advice from the Guardian!

[rougepierre] 26/2/2020 17:10

This is a sound read by a top Harvard Professor...



Fingers crossed on copper prices...meanwhile the Gold/Silver ratio is now almost 92...unbelievable....

Waiting until after the results to buy back FRES...

Holding on with ATYM thanks to Alberto...

[husbod] 26/2/2020 11:20

Looks like the super rich are making their own plans to avoid Coronavirus - Virgin Galactic sees demand for space travel surge.

[husbod] 26/2/2020 09:13

Rouge - that's very dramatic. It's not the bubonic plague just a relatively mild form of flu.And I was thinking of the Fed dropping interest rates and/or pumping more money into the system in order to keep the economy going.