Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[mronions] 05/3/2020 09:24

WHO says 3.4% mortality ... Coronavirus is a problem due to its spread vs Sarz and Ebola

[husbod] 03/3/2020 13:17

Thanks LLB.Rouge tells me that the Coronavirus outbreak in Tenerife means the whole of Spain has shut down so do you think the Court will grant us an extension?Sorry I've just realised - they won't be sitting either.More seriously I can't decide whether the AAU confirmation, assuming it's forthcoming, will result in a material uplift in the share price and therefore I can't decide whether to top up.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/3/2020 11:50

#Husbod... Jan 13th TSJA ruling and a 2 month window for the AAU restoration, so 13th March or before and getting closer by the day.. (naturally).. :o)

[husbod] 03/3/2020 11:45

Can't remember that specifically waterloo although I do remember sitting on the top deck of a Manchester bus in the early seventies surrounded by darkness due to the three day week and a limited electricity supply. All good fun at the time but just imagine the collective nervous breakdown and wall to wall media coverage if it happened today.When is our AAU deadline?

[waterloo01] 03/3/2020 11:18

I'm old enough to remember a run on toilet paper in the 1970's.

[rougepierre] 03/3/2020 11:16

$3 copper price coming soon....

[rougepierre] 03/3/2020 11:16

Oh dear Husbod...are you Donald Trump in disguise...

I shall remind you of your wise counsel in a couple of weeks...

Meanwhile I hope you have enough toilet paper at home...there's been a run on toilet paper.... :-)

[husbod] 03/3/2020 10:32

DCB or sustained recovery as people realise that this is a media inspired panic over a relatively minor virus.Latest news is a complete ban on cars due to the number of deaths they cause.

[rougepierre] 03/3/2020 09:38

Agred...I think what we've seen so far has been mainly shorter closing, but as the CV crisis develops in the US there will be good and bad market days and hopefully a more normal VIX price curve will appear leading to a sustained and steady upward trend in VILX...

AIMHO as usual...

Meanwhile bought 20,000 ADT1...

[mronions] 03/3/2020 08:37

@ rouge am hoping for period of sustained volatility

[rougepierre] 02/3/2020 09:18

That's the key point Mr O...it is long the future, not the spot price...so we need longer term unease to set in so that a normal VOL price curve sets in not the inverted one we have seen for some time which allowed US investors to sell the spot, buy forward and make a steady income...GLA

[mronions] 29/2/2020 10:27

VILX is long the VOLATILITY future . So as VOL moves higher we get a multiple of that move (daily). But does not work exactly like that.

I got 600 000 units still at similar levels to you. Has been tough.

Also loaded up on BT yesterday ... BT/VOD can't see how they will not be Ok. People still need to use their phones. BT 10% only likely to be cut in 2021. 5G auction not going to be rushed now , price may be lower.

still hold 100 000 core ATYM .

[rougepierre] 28/2/2020 15:36

VILX is not a CFD its an ETD which has no default risk and the market is the counterparty just like shares...

hxxps://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exchange-traded-derivative.asp

[erric] 28/2/2020 15:16

CFD
The final straw for me was that the company whose platform ( GNI Touch )I was using to trade the CFD’s went bust.
After about 5 months I got my £60k back through the government safety net for financial deposits cos there was nothing coming out from the Receivers.

[pawsche] 28/2/2020 14:02

@Dudam and Eric..

I traded CFDs in a small way some years ago. I did it via a quite well regarded "expert trading house" - they would make daily recommendations and leave me to take a punt at whatever took my fancy. After a while I started backing my own judgement as well... Over a couple of years I ended very slightly up. The profit from my "bets" had been almost entirely negated by the losses from the "experts".

I'd started to wonder whether I was just a member of their "patsy" list, on the basis that there's two sides to every trade they had their favoured clients who got the real gen and us idiots who were set up as the counterparties. So much so that for the last few months I became a contrarian re the experts and if they recommended "long" I went "short", and vice versa, (on another trading platform)... :-)

I've not taken share advice from anyone since.

[rougepierre] 28/2/2020 12:43

PS Dudam...if you want to trade/buy VILX sign up for another broker...II or Hargreaves Lansdown...I can deal live prices online in VILX with II...you may have to sign a disclaimer first saying you understand the risks of derivatives...

However, VILX can never have zero value unless Wisdom stop trading it...

Volumes have already boomed in it this last week...institutions and private investors using it as a hedge...last five trading days have been five of by far the biggest eight volumes in the 4 year history of the contract...

DYOR and AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 28/2/2020 12:40

I agree with waterloo Erric...your strategy is sound, but don't be deluded by false bottoms...

Trump may think US markets are cheap now because he needs them to stay high to bolster his re-election hopes...but..

Dow's biggest fall EVER yesterday and...Trumps pet TV Channel had Bernie Sanders beating him comfortably in November (49% vs 42%) so...This could get a whole lot worse...

WHEN CVD hits the states and we have a global pandemic...the US will panic and overreact...markets will tank...the economy will go into technical recession...it will dawn on investors that Trump won't get re-elected...his one-eyed supporters will turn on him and the market could even get another other leg down...

Keep your powder dry and do what Erric is...we have 350 bottles waiting to be drunk so a period of self-isolation could be quite enjoyable...start the Chateau Muser breathing now...

GLA...

[waterloo01] 28/2/2020 12:31

Agree with that. Never traded on margin and highly unlikely to be near the bottom. Could be some weeks at best imo

Beware of false bottoms. Often get rises in a down turn but almost always sets new lows.

[erric] 28/2/2020 12:23

I’m ever so happy I stopped trading CFD’s back in 2011 after nearly being wiped out; there will be a lot of small investors suffering badly with margin calls, I fear.

Best course of action for me is a long walk in the rain, a nice bottle of Cabalie tonight and a quick glance at the 15 year FTSE graph to remind myself that markets never go in straight lines and never go in just one direction over time.

Next week may be a time for bottom fishing, particularly for some of the large dividend payers.

[rougepierre] 28/2/2020 12:04

Meanwhile the dealing spread in ATYM is 160/169.5 in 5,000 and perversely 159/169.5 in 1,000...

Might as well hold the rest...

[rougepierre] 28/2/2020 11:52

Are you sure...?

"The coronavirus outbreak has reached a "decisive point" and has "pandemic potential", World Health Organization head Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus says."



I'll come back to VILX later...

So here's my take...

We and therefore the markets haven't seen the worst yet...

When it hits the US we will see if there is a panic reaction...markets always overreact, which is a reasonable, inherent supposition in what you said Dudam...

However, the main reason why I have positioned our portfolios substantially for a crash/crack has been the inevitability of a recession eventually and a market correction sooner rather than later...

At the moment it may be only a correction but, as those on here know, my biggest worry has been the lack of liquidity in US markets so that eventually when the 'black swan' event happened there would be people unable to sell except at scary prices because there would be few if any conviction buyers...

However, if people can't sell they are forced to hold and eventually this gives substance to the market.

But take SOLG and ATYM as examples of longer term prospects...SOLG has massive copper and gold reserves...its only a matter of time before it gets taken out but, just look at the Mining Sector Constituents on LSE today...virtually every one is down and when people are scared they get rid of stock rather than suffer losses and everything gets affected...But SOLG will bounce sooner rather than later because of 1 its underlying fundamentals and 2 copper has long term value which inherently is increasing day by day. If you're not making money you can leave it in the ground, but if you're in consumer goods you risk going bust...

And so to ATYM...one of only two blue mining stocks today...again there is underlying value and also the immediate prospect of the AAU getting signed off; the eventual prospects for Touro; cash in the bank; and a commodity that will see increasing and pent up demand when we come through this pandemic...

Now, as to VILX, while waterloo understands this even better than me and has played to rather well, I believe he is not correct in one respect...

Yes VIX is highly volatile...between September to December 2018 and February 2019 it went from 13.12 to 30.11 and back to 13.51...

Its gone from 14.38 to over 40 in just seven trading days and, VILX went from 0.26 to 1.01 in just nine trading days...that's pretty volatile, but...

While VIX oscillated between 10.96 and 30.11 VILX fell pretty steadily from 137.2 to 0.26 in the last three years, from 10+ to 0.27 in the last 14 months and in the latter case VIX oscillated between 12.1 and 21.38...

So while there is little apparent correlation there, this is because VIX and VILX are fundamentally different...

VILX is DERIVED from VIX, but I have come to understand that it reflects the range between spot VIX and the shorter term contracts (i.e. 1 month, 2 month...)

That means that you have to have sustained higher VIX for an extended period and VILX slowly catches up, but the other side of the coin is that it would then fall slower as well...think of it as being a bit like a 90 day moving average of VIX...

The good news is VILX is spiking, but it now needs VIX to remain elevated...if that happens there is no reason why we shouldn't see VILX back over 3 or even over 10 again...

That is NOT a recommendation...you must form your own view, as Mr O and waterloo do...it may be that you buy VILX on a fallback or you don't touch it...it can never go bust like a company, but it could in theory fall back to 0.26 or below...that would however also need a sustained run of low VIX to happen and I can't see that occurring any time soon...

People are scared...stock is being dumped...significant amounts have been wiped off the copper shares I hold, but...collectively our VILX hedges have counteracted that to the tune of £30,000 sine VILX hit 0.26...

You pays your money...it all depends which end of the telescope you are looking down...

AIMHO as usual...