Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rich1e] 12/3/2020 17:13

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked” -Warren Buffet


As I turns out it’s the most powerful man on the planet, not a pretty sight, markets are understandably queasy.

[mronions] 12/3/2020 16:42

well its over 3 ! well traded.

[waterloo01] 12/3/2020 16:19

I'd like to see it work like that, but given it was 8000p once tells a story

[rougepierre] 12/3/2020 16:17

Who says it can't get there waterloo...not saying it will but...

Remember, VILX fell steadily and slowly on the way down...it is rising steadily and slowly on the way up...VIX just set a new all time high at 69.10...

VILX 3.80 and rising...

How many thought I was sniffing glue on 28 February...

"So here's my take...

We and therefore the markets haven't seen the worst yet...

When it hits the US we will see if there is a panic reaction...markets always overreact, which is a reasonable, inherent supposition in what you said Dudam...

However, the main reason why I have positioned our portfolios substantially for a crash/crack has been the inevitability of a recession eventually and a market correction sooner rather than later...

At the moment it may be only a correction but, as those on here know, my biggest worry has been the lack of liquidity in US markets so that eventually when the 'black swan' event happened there would be people unable to sell except at scary prices because there would be few if any conviction buyers.......

While VIX oscillated between 10.96 and 30.11 VILX fell pretty steadily from 137.2 to 0.26 in the last three years, from 10+ to 0.27 in the last 14 months and in the latter case VIX oscillated between 12.1 and 21.38...

So while there is little apparent correlation there, this is because VIX and VILX are fundamentally different...

VILX is DERIVED from VIX, but I have come to understand that it reflects the range between spot VIX and the shorter term contracts (i.e. 1 month, 2 month...)

That means that you have to have sustained higher VIX for an extended period and VILX slowly catches up, but the other side of the coin is that it would then fall slower as well...think of it as being a bit like a 90 day moving average of VIX...

The good news is VILX is spiking, but it now needs VIX to remain elevated...if that happens there is no reason why we shouldn't see VILX back over 3 or even over 10 again..."

I'm still holding for 10...if it gets there I shall be scared to sell...

GLA

[waterloo01] 12/3/2020 11:40

Rouge, you know that won't happen don't you? It will never get to 50+ actually unlikely to get anywhere near 10p, but will be delighted to be proven wrong, but don't think its possible, even if stocks fall 50%

[rougepierre] 12/3/2020 11:24

VIX over 62....VILX is a 2.25x multiple of the short months of VIX...

[rougepierre] 12/3/2020 11:22

Bought a load more at 12.8 this week...previously my average was over 19 by trading out half and buying them back...betwen us we now have 825,000...

I'll screenshot you my portfolio if you want...

Meanwhile...VILX 3.24 and could actually go to 50, 100 or more...its currently covering all my losses on other stocks...

FRES, HOC and GPM ridiculously cheap now...

Reasons to be cheerful...

AIMHO as usual...

[husbod] 12/3/2020 09:57

I owe you an apology Rouge - you read this Coronavirus impact correctly and I got it wrong. For some unforgivable reason I assumed peeps wouldn't panic.Anyway well done but I have to say I smiled when I saw your 1m Solgold at an average of 18p. Either you are one of the most brilliant investors on the planet timing wise or your maths is a little dodgy.

[rougepierre] 12/3/2020 08:58

Completely agree Erric..one day this will all be a distant memory...but even gold and silver shares being banged today...steady nerves needed...

Still holding VILX at 3.18...

GLA

[erric] 12/3/2020 08:19

Good analysis Rouge and though I know you are not giving investment advice, it’s always good to hear your views.
I’m afraid I couldn’t ignore the drops last week and bought another 10,000 yesterday at under 5p old money which I never expected to see again.
Copper will make a huge come-back in 2021 and we are well placed to supply into the increased demand that will come when Climate Change returns to the No1 worry worldwide.

[rich1e] 11/3/2020 18:58

My Sipp is primarily equity funds for growth. In order of sector weightings UK, Global (contains a lot of US), Europe, Asia, Emerging Markets (contains a lot of Asia), Cash, Bonds (strategic, EM). I’ve today reinvested the cash.

My ISA primarily income focused and also globally diversified, equities, commodities, bonds, property, and cash not yet invested.

My ammunition at this point is future regular contributions at lower levels and income reinvestment at lower levels, to keep accumulating the units.

[rougepierre] 11/3/2020 18:35

I love the income angle Richie but in our ISAs I'm more interested in contrarian investments/hedges and capital appreciation with a view to investing in the likes of BT (currently yielding 12.5% at the right price and for the long term...

So when volatility quietens down (probably May...) your strategy will be my strategy...

For the meantime, for non utilities the dividend yield is at risk of serious impairment...

So e.g. a good strategy would be sell VILX at 10, invest in TLW at 10 and pile the profits into beaten down BT, CAML, GLEN, LLOY, etc for an average yield of c10% at interest rates of zero...

I wish...

AIMHO as usual...

[shortarm] 11/3/2020 18:29

Maybe the loser from the Solg battle will snap up ARS?

[rich1e] 11/3/2020 17:34

And if you buy equity income funds in your ISA you can get a 3-5% yield. Automatically reinvest if you don’t need the divi’s and you buy the dips without even thinking about it. Or take it tax free at a time of ultra low interest rates.

[rougepierre] 11/3/2020 17:28

Your comments are sound Richie...anyone who has sizeable investments should actively manage...viz my ATYM, SOLG (average 18+), FRES (average 615) and HOC...(average 160)...

[rich1e] 11/3/2020 17:20

Or, alternatively buy a globally diversified mix of investment funds on a regular basis, keep maybe 10% cash on one side for times like these. Developed stock markets will probably return 7% a year over an extended period of time. Good funds/ fund managers should easily beat that by 1.5%. And averaging down on the dips will probably get you another 1.5%. All in all, 10% a year for a few hours research every now and then.

After the last crash it was all, buy gold, avoid fiat currencies, etc. etc. and the guy who got rich was the one who bought an index fund that tracked the dow.

[waterloo01] 11/3/2020 16:48

Or alternatively avoid all prospective miners. Gold aside, most metals could test the lows in the short term. (having said that I do still hold some Kefi, GGP and a few ATYM)

Keep your cash dry until it turns.

[riotinted_specs] 11/3/2020 16:36

Rouge, I've also see you remain a fervent believer in silver and have downsize averaged in FRES and HOC. A couple of questions, first which do you now prefer between, FRES, HOC and MAG. Also, I wonder if you might provide an opinion on SOLG versus ATYM. I remain a huge believer in ATYM, but really need for KEFI ton take off, prior to reinvesting. Also, out of VILX as of yesterday, it served me well in the end but my word it just seems to need one hell of a jolt to get that thing moving and I never really felt comfortable with the nature of the investment being an eroding one

[riotinted_specs] 11/3/2020 16:30

Hey rougepierre, I've thankfully been out of copper over the last 6 months. At one point was very heavily invested in Atalaya as well as ARS. ARS was near break even with Atalaya at a very healthy profit albeit over a 5 year period. I've seen you've taken very big hits on SOLG, ATYM, now KAZ and even investing in KEFI off the back of an undervaluation reminder I made on this board. As many know ATYM are part owners of KEFI and our favourite Aussie cowboy is at the helm. Anyway, I admire your patience with all of the above shares which you have stuck with despite the price continuing to drop and the mass exodus. I too am in a similar position and I feel a bit pot committed to KEFI. Alas, we can only hope that value will pan out and fully agree that one needs to turn a blind eye to already invested mine stocks unless they are looking to invest at these superb prices.

[mronions] 11/3/2020 11:42

I have bought a total of 4000 ATYM 134-138p all I could spare cash .

[mronions] 11/3/2020 10:16

SOLG here ? do I buy ? What risks

[rich1e] 10/3/2020 18:48

A couple of 250k trades gone through today, could be some kind of rollover, I suppose? Both flagged as LRGS (large in scale deferral). Also, on the Morningstar ownership page, I see that BlackRock Smaller Companies are number two on the list behind Cobas, whereas a couple of weeks ago I think that spot was Majedie, who are now third and don’t seem to have reduced their holding further.

[rougepierre] 09/3/2020 20:42

And as for oil stocks....