Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rougepierre] 27/2/2019 22:24

You're dead right tommy...no valid reason for not moving to a full listing...

[tommyttrades] 27/2/2019 17:38

Not really any projected news for a few weeks....
So drift/hold around these levels ..Really should move to a full listing,rather than AIM.close any Cypriot offices, if still functioning at all..

Any reason, apart from cost implications why we're better off staying on AIM?

[mronions] 27/2/2019 14:27

@husbod , you think ? anyhow don't you think in our interest that lots all investors taken out ? clearly going into then hands of this new institutional buyer

[husbod] 27/2/2019 12:42

Stop doing those dummy sells Mr O - the mms will think there's a big seller in the background and mark us down accordingly!There have been a lot of sells recently - too early for peeps locking in their gains for this tax year methinks. So why the selling I wonder.

[rougepierre] 27/2/2019 12:20

Follow up on the DGR Global question...

Just discovered this...

"Nick Mather (Chief Executive of SOLG) is also executive chairman of oil and gas firm Armour Energy; executive chairman of base metals junior IronRidge Resources; a non-executive director of AusTin Mining; non-executive chairman of Dark Horse Resources; and CEO of DGR Global."

Those are all the other companies DGR Global is invested in, besides SOLG...

He has 5% of SOLG and 9% of DGR...

Which will leap first...ATYM or SOLG...?

Watch this space...

[mronions] 27/2/2019 10:18

tested the bid again with dummy sell on 70 000
- I got 232p this morning
- just now got 230p

So I would say buyer in hands of market maker who is trying to make sellers .

f anyone has funds of worth, can you see if there is any offer (in size)?

[mronions] 27/2/2019 09:25

Dummy sell test . 70000 = 232p

Buyer dictating the bid level.

[mronions] 26/2/2019 22:15

@Rouge , did not look today , seen the 235p bid gone. interesting. Will test tomorrow.
What material information could there be :
- Touro set back ? We don't really care as this does not really cost us until we have permission.
- Astor news on uptick ? I know we have provisioned for payment (some day) but having to pay Astor more will be frustrating, they already get a marketing fee for doing nothing. In fact Astor = one big pain. Has brought us 0 value.
- The case brought by Ecologista Action ? Well ATYM and Junta are co defending. The Ecologists just want to stop mining in region, full stop. NB we are continuing mining.
- Who cares about sandfire : we are not interested.
- Trafigura always meddling, that is frustrating.

Flip side
- copper price is very good for us
- expansion is happening fast
- upside from Corto Atalaya coming online
- second crusher
- more brokers due to come, likely to be positive, we have to be best copper play
- Canaccord PT 330p , with NAV 400p
- 5 years price likely to be £10

[rougepierre] 26/2/2019 17:08

"...a slight recovery in copper prices and some organic
growth can lead to a near doubling of EBITDA. We believe it is this dynamic, rather
than the straight equity/commodity correlation, that will ultimately drive the stock
higher."

Exactly!

Its not rocket science...onwards and upwards towards £10 within 5 years...

AIMHO as usual (and Canaccord...)

[tommyttrades] 26/2/2019 11:11

Not alone in thinking we'd be rising as the copper flirts with $3


ATYM is based partly on a recovery in copper prices, but also on a structural rerating,
as production growth and margin expansion come through.
Figure 3: Equity/Commodity correlation ATYM and Copper
Source: Company reports, Canaccord Genuity estimates

Another way of thinking of this is a simplified discounting of EBITDA. ATYM currently
has a market capitalisation of $364m and an EV (based on CGe projected end 2018
Net Debt) of $316m (ATYM is cash positive, so EV is less than market capitalisation).
At an industry standard 6x EV/EBITDA multiple, the market is broadly pricing ATYM as
a $53m/year EBITDA stock.
Below, we present some simplified scenarios for a generic producer based on
price/unit cost combinations (this is not an output of our model, although ATYM is
relatively simple so it is a good approximation). At a price of $2.8/lb and cost of
$2.20/lb, margins would be $1322/t and EBITDA $53m (for 40kt/y – ATYM’s current
scale). Driving costs to $2.1/lb (4.5% lower) and a copper price recovery to $3/lb
alone shifts this to $80m/y. Expansion from 40kt to 55kt/y drives annual EBITDA to
$99m/y.
Although this is not our base forecast, it is illustrative that for a producer like ATYM, a
slight improvement in costs, a slight recovery in copper prices and some organic
growth can lead to a near doubling of EBITDA. We believe it is this dynamic, rather
than the straight equity/commodity correlation, that will ultimately drive the stock
higher.lse

[rougepierre] 26/2/2019 10:41

More to the point, why aren't all copper shares booming...?

Must be waiting for the US/China trade deal news...

And why on earth were there so many sells yesterday...down to 230p...

Impatience or insider knowledge...?

Where's the bid for 70,000 now Onions?

[leopoldalcox] 26/2/2019 06:50

Copper now $2.95.When are we due an uptick in share price?Atalaya always seems strangely behind the news, but this time the share price has been particularly static

[mip55] 23/2/2019 09:25

Finals should be out in a month or so, 27 March last year.

[richardjohn10] 22/2/2019 15:17

No MTR fans?

[richardjohn10] 22/2/2019 14:23

I'm with you cheers

[mark of the rushes] 22/2/2019 13:55

It's on ASX(Oz exchange) RJ10.

[richardjohn10] 22/2/2019 12:59

Name of DGR please can't find it

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 22/2/2019 12:50

Can’t win ‘em all #Onions..., with Copper knocking on $3.00/lb again and our share price flatlining as we scale up to 45,000 Tonnes selling into it this year, it's just winding the spring up, the share price will track the revenue/profit increase as it builds up..., a sensible share price target would be 300p this year I think, so I’m staying long...

[brockwl2] 22/2/2019 12:48

This share continues to confound me somewhat. I continue to be amazed at the slow share price reaction to various events, and the continual trading opportunities that are presented.
Looking at the share price graph, and the news worthy events, we have recovered from the lows of 190p to 240p based on the November results, and the January operations update. Its clear from the graph that the price moved only as a result of those news events.
However since then we have seen Copper move from about $2.65 to $2.93 today. That move if sustained will equate to at least a 50% increase in profits going forward, yet the share price hasn't moved, if anything its fallen very slightly, during that rise.
Now I get that there should be always be a slowish reaction to copper price rises as buyers don't want to get caught buying spikes. But this has gone on for a few weeks now, and this share is very geared to copper price increases.

I'm nowhere near the 33% of my portfolio I had of these at one point last year, having sold down, (as previously disclosed), and diversified across other copper plays (CAML + KAZ). However the recent falls at the back end of last year and the 190p lows tempted me to increase again, and I'm back above 10%, having even bought some again this morning. I didn't think I would be buying these again at 240p.
However it seems risk/reward has moved significantly toward reward, since the recent copper price rise. If copper falls back, given the share price hasn't moved forward, I think the possible share price retrace is limited. If copper maintains the current price, then the share price will need to adjust to that at some point.
So currently this seems a good low risk opportunity.

I'm also quite pleased I diversified, as despite the obvious benefits, I'm realising it allows me the potential to switch portions from plays which have reacted to the copper price rise to the ones which haven't, assuming fundamentals haven't changed.

Although I have yet to do it, switching some CAML at their recent high to here would have been a smart trade.
I may try and exploit these sort of arbitrages more in the future.

Good luck to all holders

Lee

[riotinted_specs] 22/2/2019 12:47

ERIS for Zinc undervalued in relation to assets, so much so that the value is less than cash in bank

[rougepierre] 22/2/2019 12:45

You're absolutely right mark...so with a MCap of c£42m, DGR's NAV is £97m, i.e. a prospective 130% capital appreciation just to stand still...

If SOLG hit JPMs 90p target, the NAV of DGR would reach £241m, a prospective capital appreciation of 500% on the present price...

ATYM would have to hit £14.40 to match that...

Long and holding...

Thanks again...

[mronions] 22/2/2019 12:37

sold my copper future far too early ... annoying

[waterloo01] 22/2/2019 11:43

CAML for copper and Zinc. Low cost miner and pays a divi.

[rougepierre] 22/2/2019 11:22

Strong, steady buying in SOLG today...PEA due soon...resistance at 39, 42, 45 then BOOM!!!

AIMHO as usual...

Meanwhile surely ATYM price has been held back for a Cannaccord client to buy stock...over 2% changed hands 12/18 February...sellers mugged by inaction...

With copper price booming, growing M&A activity; excellent production figures; new capacity coming on stream; etc. I suggest we'll be testing 260p and a new all time high before the end of March...

Holding hard, long and strong...