Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 17/8/2017 17:40

LLB, my error putting the % mark in. I know it's not a percentage! Guess we'll see with the numbers who is closer, Rouge at 2.7 or your 4 both compare well as you say.

My main point, apart from sharing my BOFB number for 2018, was that PE doesn't take into account numerous other factors (such as debt, cash flow, prospects etc) so is a guide but is far from the whole story.

Re Kaz, I suspect they will come down from a PE of 22 with today's results.

Great to see a 25k trade at 1.42 today (reported late naturally).

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/8/2017 17:15

#waterloo01, The P/E ratio can be calculated as: Market Value per Share / Earnings per Share, it's not a percentage..

Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company's profit allocated to each share.

My best guess on FY2017 profit is EUR42M/£38M so with 117M shares in issue that's an EPS of 32p. At 140p per share today that's a forward PE around 4:1

2018 could be a 250p share earning 50p each giving a P/E of 5:1

It's difficult to do an accurate number as we don't have a full year earnings to work with yet at 9.5MTPA..

KAZ have a P/E of 22, ANTO 35, RIO 16, BLT 77 so we are a very cheap share for its earning potential compared to the Majors..

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/8/2017 12:03

With the Bull case for Copper now almost overwhelming assisted by the EV revolution coming..
So many LTH's here still underwater, still long and still holding for a profit, (myself included) there can't be that many people here in a profitable position at today's share price looking to get out ..? and why would you when there are blue skies ahead, our journey has only just begun in 2017, the next 3 to 4 years is where it's at and where the bigger profits are coming our way, dividends in 18 months / 2 years..?

[shortarm] 17/8/2017 11:29

Bit of a fight on today....Think Mr seller has unfortunately (for him) woken up a Mr Buyer with bigger pockets :-)

[rougepierre] 17/8/2017 10:28

Bloomberg TV have just featured a major chart showing that "inflation adjusted copper" has broken sharply up out of a downtrend dating back to 2010!!!

And surprise surprise, the hook at this end looks almost identical to the hook up in the ATYM share price...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/8/2017 09:51

Mr 5/10K a day could easily be an AlgoBot trade, selling into every rise..?

It just doesn't stack up that now we have the best part of a $1/lb gross profit margin that we are trading at under post consolidation prices from the May 2015 @ 142.5p when we were making and selling nothing at all..

[reba] 17/8/2017 09:35

So first lets get the 53m off our backs first we can now afford it.

[mip55] 17/8/2017 09:19

You could well be right Waterloo....the timeframe originally set out as follows: The consideration amounts to EUR53M and a further copper price-linked consideration of up to EUR15.9M if copper averages over 300c/lb per quarter, payable over 6 or 7 years.

[rougepierre] 17/8/2017 09:18

And theres that idiot Mr 10k again...3p below the Bid...disgraceful!

Then two further late bookings deliberately held back to try and bring the price back...

Don't be fooled...ALL of these three sales (10k at 133.25, 7k at 134, 10k at 134) were actually transacted when the Quote was 133/134 and therefore AT LEAST TWO of them are actually Buys...

In fact Im even more certain that a MM is involved because this is a deliberately timed late booking...

This all suggests to me that the market is desperately short of stock and...

Guess what? I can STILL sell 30,000 at 136...

Is Numis trying to catch out the other MMs...?

AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 17/8/2017 09:16

Well done mate...you wont be disappointed...in for the long haul...resuktscearly September..if copper is over $3 then whoooshhh...

AIMHO as usual....

[strummerjon] 17/8/2017 08:56

That was mine! Liked the look of the prospective PE of 2.7 at today's CU price

[mount teide] 17/8/2017 08:50

First 140p trade to go through since April - bodes well!

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/8/2017 08:44

mip55, the Astor uptick payments kick in at $3.00 Copper, it has to average $3.00 over a measured time frame to qualify, but I'm not sure how long that is..!

[waterloo01] 17/8/2017 08:41

Not sure you are right as in the judgement I think this element was set aside as they went back to the original master agreement but stand to be corrected. Rambo will however get their £250k each Q copper is over $2.60

[mip55] 17/8/2017 08:32

Being cynical .... deferred consideration of the Astor loan kicks in at $3.....perhaps we should be content in the high 2.90's? Lol

[shortarm] 17/8/2017 08:07

2.99 hit earlier....Three dollars this week or next :-)

[waterloo01] 16/8/2017 17:42

"so, translating that into sterling, Gross Revenues for 2017 would be $138m, i.e. £108m (at $1.28 average); net cashflow (margin), equivalent to EBITDA) would be $73m, i.e.£57m, giving EPS of 49 pence, equivalent to a prospective P/E ratio for 2017 of 2.7 times at the current price..."

That's close to my thinking, and gets better if you look at 2018 prospective earnings. On top of that we exceptionally low debt (essentially Astor at this point) compared to just about any other similar miner and visibility on expansion via PRT to 15mt and Touro which all look very sustainable projects, doubly so with copper at $3.00

[rougepierre] 16/8/2017 17:32

Those two 10k transactions look like a crude reverse B&B to me...£100 to roll on the stock for another 20 days...?

AIMHO as usual...

[rougepierre] 16/8/2017 17:30

I agree the $1 margin LLB...see above...

[rougepierre] 16/8/2017 17:29

That's a very good point waterloo...the difference between cash cost and average price achieved is net cashflow and is also a good approximation for EBITDA...

Share price divided by EBITDA in pence gives you the Price Earnings ratio...

We already know that very much less than the copper produced went into Gross Revenues in Q1...because inventory of concentrate rose from zero at the end of 2016 to 12.4m Euros (at cost) at the end of Q1 2017. That's $13.3m.

Production for Q2 was 9058 tonnes at cash cost of $1.83/lb, i.e. $36.55m plus inventory gives $49.85m, say $50m. Margin at $2.57 is $0.74/lb, i.e. $20m. Gross revenues $70m.

If average achieved price for H2 2017 is say $2.83 (it is $2.77 for the period to date), that gives gross revenues in H2 of $112m and margin of $40m.

so, translating that into sterling, Gross Revenues for 2017 would be $138m, i.e. £108m (at $1.28 average); net cashflow (margin), equivalent to EBITDA) would be $73m, i.e.£57m, giving EPS of 49 pence, equivalent to a prospective P/E ratio for 2017 of 2.7 times at the current price...

Hardly taxing....

Meanwhile copper sets yet another new 33 month high at $2.97+....

AIMHO as usual...

[shortarm] 16/8/2017 17:11

So copper hit 298.75.....That's really not far from the three dollar printing money scenario....

[shortarm] 16/8/2017 17:02

Double 10k smash attempt has no effect :-)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 16/8/2017 16:10

Could we really see $3.00 Copper this week..?, any time this year will do, but sooner is better.. with a round $1 gross margin, that's quite a recovery from sub $2.00 in Jan 2016..

Top up time before the share price reacts, as it is clearly way out of step with the fundamentals..!

Q1 8805 Tonnes / 19.5M/lbs / $2.41 realised Copper / EUR 0.27/lb profit / EUR 5.243M bottom line
Q2 9058 Tonnes / 20M/lbs / $2.61 realised Copper / cEUR 0.47/lb profit / cEUR 9.5M
Q3 9250 Tonnes / 20.4M/lbs / c$2.75 realised Copper / cEUR 0.61/lb profit / cEUR12.4M
Q4 9500 Tonnes / 21M/lbs / c$2.85 realised Copper / cEUR 0.71/lb profit / cEUR14.94M

My best estimate for FY2017 EUR 42M / $36M bottom line profit....

[rougepierre] 16/8/2017 16:04

Hurrah we have good liquidity...sell 30,000 at 133...buy 10,000 at 134...