Assura Share Discussion Threads

[leebong] 24/6/2014 15:29

Its nice to see the stock being recommended but this article has a mistake about the dividend yield. The annual yield is actually 4% paid in quarterly amounts of 1% or 0.45p every 3 months. With a rental income of 59 million GBP from 250 NHS rental properties I would expect the divi to increase as the share price rises.

Assura Group Limited (LON:AGR)'s stock had its "buy" rating reiterated by stock analysts at Liberum Capital in a research report issued to clients and investors on Tuesday. They currently have a GBX 47.50 ($0.81) price target on the stock. Liberum Capital's target price suggests a potential upside of 11.11% from the company's current price.

Assura Group Limited (LON:AGR) opened at 42.37 on Tuesday. Assura Group Limited has a 52 week low of GBX 34.00 and a 52 week high of GBX 44.00. The stock has a 50-day moving average of GBX 43.28 and a 200-day moving average of GBX 41.27. The company's market cap is £222.6 million.

The company also recently declared a dividend, which is scheduled for Wednesday, July 23rd. Investors of record on Wednesday, July 9th will be given a dividend of GBX 0.45 ($0.01) per share. This represents a yield of 1.04%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Wednesday, July 9th.

Separately, analysts at Oriel Securities Ltd reiterated an "add" rating on shares of Assura Group Limited in a research note on Friday, June 13th.
Assura Group Limited (LON:AGR) is a Guernsey-based healthcare Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT).

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[leebong] 24/6/2014 08:04

Legal and General now hold 3.46% or about 19.5 million shares...just shows this is a worth while investment.

[badtime] 20/6/2014 20:40

Another day of large turnover

[badtime] 19/6/2014 14:28

Heavy volume

[leebong] 19/6/2014 11:41

I have read here a load of technical finance stuff that I find difficult to comprehend...Is this stock a good investment from a divi/ risk point of view or not?. It looked good to me when I bought into it but was my judgement clouded by hype...comments welcome.

[scburbs] 16/6/2014 12:59

On the PPP acquisition by PHP they obtained a discount for an equivalent liability to that for which AGR are getting no discount. The discount wasn't that large at 7.7% of the amount of debt, so it would only have taken £6m off the price if AGR had got a similar discount (the amount of discount would primarily link to the rate and the term). If c.£6m is the correct number then AGR are paying around a 25% premium to NAV, which would be slightly better than I was originally expecting.

From PHP announcement of acquisition in November 2013.

"The debt to be assumed with the Acquisition is expected to total £178.4 million and comprises a number of loans provided by Aviva, each secured against a specific property asset. The loans are long term, fixed rate facilities with terms ranging from 22 years to 30 years from inception of the loan and they have a current contracted interest rates ranging from 5.33 per cent. to 6.09 per cent. Facility covenants include minimum levels of debt service cover by rental income (DSCR), with a range of 91.7 per cent. to 104 per cent.

In agreeing the consideration payable for PPP Group, the parties have agreed a mark to market adjustment of £13.7 million to the nominal value of the debt to reflect an estimate of the cost to re-set its contracted interest rate or its early repayment."

[stupidboypike] 16/6/2014 07:47

thanks for the reasoned, helpful info. On balance I agree with topvest but very nice to hear your view too scburbs.

Best regards SBP

[topvest] 14/6/2014 19:52

I'm not sure I agree. Assura has a weighted average finance cost of 5.28% currently, so 5.5% is not what you would call onerous. With a 0.25% interest rate rise coming and more to follow, then a 5.5% finance cost sounds quite reasonable.

[scburbs] 13/6/2014 20:08

SBP,

It is because the expensive debt means the market value of the debt is far higher than £77.7m. They have stated that in the RNS, but have been cute on only explaining the positive part!

"The debt assumed with the acquisition has an average fixed interest rate of 5.5% and an average maturity of 13.5 years. On consolidation there will be fair value adjustments, primarily to reflect current market interest rates for long-term borrowings, and hence these are expected to lower interest charges and increase underlying profitability by a further £0.1 million per annum."

Whilst this statement may sound positive it actually means they will fair value the liability represented by the £77.7m loan to a much higher value which will show they have paid well above NAV (they will probably balance this by establishing a goodwill asset).

Let's not forget that AGR paid a fortune to get out of expensive debt arrangements a couple of years ago, losing an astonishing £60+m.

"Following repayment of part of the NAB loan in March 2010 and March 2011, the NAB loan currently stands at £120 million and matures on 31 March 2013. On the termination of the NAB loan, the Board would expect NAB to demand settlement of the swap.

The Company has previously disclosed that it was planning to cancel the swap on the assumption that NAB would not renew the loan on 31 March 2013. As a result of significant volatility in long term interest rates, in early October this year, the Group purchased a 12 month receiver's swaption to cap the mark-to-market loss on the swap at the then level of £55 million, plus the cost of the swaption, which was £13.6 million. The effect therefore was to ensure that for 12 months, the net loss on the swap would not exceed £68.6 million."

[topvest] 13/6/2014 10:18

Looks another astute deal to me. It will nudge gearing up, so may need to issue some shares for further growth, but should be relatively easy to get a placing away given the good progress and more sustainable business model than MedicX Fund and PHP.

[stupidboypike] 13/6/2014 10:07

scburbs, don't follow your logic at all. We have paid £28.9m (in cash and shares) and assumed £77.7m of debt for assets worth around £109m . How do you get that we are paying way over NAV?

Best regards SBP

[aa29] 13/6/2014 09:23

If the 28 properties have an average lot size of £3.9m, presumably that means Assura is paying £107m for assets valued at £108.1m. Debt would be used anyway if it were a new development or an acquisition of existing assets.

Think this might be a better way of looking at it.

[scburbs] 13/6/2014 09:01

Is this deal really as bad as it looks?

Gross consideration £107m, debt £77.7m - net value before MTM of debt terms £29.3m.

"The debt assumed with the acquisition has an average fixed interest rate of 5.5% and an average maturity of 13.5 years."

That is one stonking liability which AGR appear to be getting no benefit for. They are paying way above NAV of the target company to acquire these assets which doesn't look great when they are paying with more lowly rated paper.

Presumably there are running cost savings to make this better than it superficially appears. This gives them an earnings yield of just over 5% on what they are buying. A good deal for the sellers who I expect had no operating profit at all.

[stupidboypike] 13/6/2014 07:53

looks like a nice deal to me. Earnings enhancing from the start with more potential upside - I like that.

Best regards SBP

[goliard] 29/5/2014 12:02

Possibly the one off profit on sale of LIFT investments.

[mrmomentumt] 28/5/2014 10:24

Can anyone please explain why forecasts for PBT 2015 are less than half the PBT 2014? Digital look have them down as £11.7m PBT next year. Thanks

[wirralowl] 23/5/2014 11:50

Agree with the above sentiment, very good results, with a nice rise in profits, NAV and divi over the last 12 months. Surprised by the fall in price, so I've topped up this morning.

[topvest] 23/5/2014 08:39

Yes, very good results. Further growth may well now need to be at least part funded by shares, with LTV at 62% but should be achievable as there will be takers at NAV given their progress so far. Better value than PHP and MedicX Fund in my view.

[goliard] 23/5/2014 07:39

Hard to fault what they are doing. Sensible and well run company with solid results.

[rik shaw] 23/5/2014 07:22

Solid results here. Good increase in NAV, covered Div and steady rise in share price recently.

[badtime] 15/5/2014 14:53

Oh I do like a quiet board as we trundle along

[wirralowl] 23/4/2014 15:23

Dividend landed promptly in my idealing account today

[wirralowl] 10/4/2014 21:11

Positive mention in Shares Mag, today. One of the tips in their front page article on commercial property.

[stupidboypike] 10/4/2014 12:50

decent upward move too. I like it. Best regards SBP