Assura Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 17/5/2013 19:09

Looks like it might well go through with the big holders on board. I would prefer Assura to remain independent as I think the new Chief Executive would do a very good job, but that's unlikely now.

[badtime] 17/5/2013 16:14

Bid target

[lawmb] 03/12/2012 18:30

Some steady buying over these past two weeks...

[goliard] 05/10/2012 08:15

Strong run here over last couple of months. I think investors are finally seeing a simple dividend paying company that is well placed to benefit from future consolidation in the sector, which feels inevitable to me. 40p seems reasonable, but will need news to move much past that.

[1nf3rn0] 16/7/2012 12:17

It's through the 100 day MA for the first time since a brief spike thorugh in August 2011, for what that's worth (trend already changed?). I'm sure there will be a pullback at some point though, so may not be a bad idea to let it cool off a bit.

[drewz] 16/7/2012 11:36

Yes, thanks for that heads-up, 1nf3n0.

I have added AGR - belatedly - to my news alert list so I don't miss RNS releases in future.

Looks like I have missed the bottom for now, but the RSI is hugely overbought for the moment so probably best for it to cool off for a week or so after that very large director buy before I start building a position.

Wait for a Golden Cross confirmation of the change of trend via the 50/200 moving averages before buying perhaps?

[1nf3rn0] 16/7/2012 09:56

drewz, there was a big buy on Friday by the CEO too. 1,500,000 shares at 30p.

[drewz] 05/7/2012 16:45

So have we turned the corner here?

Did Mr Laffin catch the bottom with that 27p buy?

[cnx] 29/6/2012 01:46

net assets 36p, share price 28p.
with the b/s cleaned up(?) this may be a good entry point, yield 4% daid quarterly

[scburbs] 18/6/2012 14:11

Results due next Tuesday (26th) to show the decimation of EPRA NAV from the swap closure.

[drewz] 14/6/2012 14:33

I'll have a tranche of this at 25p.

[goliard] 19/4/2012 00:25

Topvest, just FYI, I have it confirmed that there is no final dividend and quarterly dividends are the new strategy. Totally at odds with the previous announcements and very much the new chairman and CEO dictating new strategy and clearing out the old board along with their ideas. They are clearly leaving room for a progressive dividend by starting small.

[scburbs] 02/4/2012 08:06

Thanks Davidosh, interesting article.

Whilst you would think that Assura would be expected to understand what they were doing, there is some pretty good evidence in the closure of the swap (with a payback period much longer than the length of the new loan) that they didn't have a clue!!

Probably they have been missold the swap, missold the option in relation to closing and missold in relation to the decision to close!

Sadly they are a large company and do need to take responsibility for their decisions rather than just doing what they are advised by someone incentivised for them to take action.

[davidosh] 01/4/2012 22:31

Is this going to be the next bank mis selling scandal ?





I wonder if Assura could benefit ?

[topvest] 29/3/2012 18:57

Yes, I agree - this is very unclear and they should re-issue - a five year old could draft a clearer statement!!!

"At the time of the Company's Rights Issue in November, the Board stated that it intended to recommend a final dividend for this year. The Board is now also announcing a progressive dividend policy, paying dividends in future on a quarterly basis, in line with the timing of the Company's rental income receipts. The first quarterly dividend will be paid as an interim dividend in July 2012 at a rate of 0.285 pence per share, giving rise to an anticipated annualised distribution of at least 1.14 pence per share."

The word "also" implies both, but why say what the interim is and not the final?

So if the first quarterly dividend is in July at 0.285p, what about the final dividend, which would be in July also after the AGM? This is really not good enough, given all the rubbish we have had to take over the last year from this bunch and the extra cash we have stumped up. If this is the new crowd and they can't even put some words together then I am not inspired!

A British Land FD should be able to draft an RNS better than this. Come on, lets have some competence please!!

[goliard] 29/3/2012 18:29

It is a poorly drafted RNS as you could read it either way. My guess is no final dividend and this is the new CEO stamping his authority on the business strategy, but they could have been clearer I agree.

[topvest] 29/3/2012 17:32

Mulling it over again....one issue I have with today's announcements is that it contradicts the interim management statement where they stated that they planned a final dividend. From what I can see, this has been ditched in favour of a new lower quarterly dividend. Bit clumsy, given the same Chairman has changed his view in a matter of weeks. I suppose they could also do a final dividend as well, but unlikely. Hope the new CEO gets this company in shape as it is not going to gain support unless it stops u-turning and messing up! Any thoughts?

[goliard] 29/3/2012 12:22

Agree with the above posts. It is interesting to note that in a period of exactly two years, the entire board of Assura, bith executive and non-executive has been replaced. Hopefully the new directors will be more alligned to shareholder interests and can start producing decent returns.

[scburbs] 29/3/2012 09:02

Topvest, I agree that MedicX are following a seriously aggressive dividend policy. I would view PHP as the benchmark in the sector.

[topvest] 29/3/2012 08:59

Well it's a good appointment. I would guess that we might get 1.25p as a dividend in the next financial year. I agree it's on the low side, particularly as there is no dividend at all for this financial year but others such as MedicX are over-distributing. I don't mind them starting low as long as they have a progressive policy and they don't mess up this time.

[scburbs] 29/3/2012 08:20

Good to see the CEO on his way. Looks like a good appointment. You would hope that Graham Roberts would have had the sense not to have crystallised such a large swap loss when the payback period in order to recover it through lower interest rates was such a long time (and longer than the term of the new debt taken on!).

They need to be doing better on the dividend. That is a low yield on the share price (relative to competitors) and a really low yield on NAV. Playing it safe so in 10 years time they can claim an unbroken track record of rises is not something they will get much support for from current shareholders!

[topvest] 29/3/2012 08:08

All change today then. Quarterly dividends for next year, although starting at quite a low level. New CEO looks very good news.
Looks to me like Assura is being changed for the better, so maybe a good entry / add point down at 30p.

[scburbs] 07/3/2012 13:35

Topvest,

Agreed, divi is the key here - not seen a forecast. AGR need to be competing with PHP and MedicX on yield against NAV and should be ahead of them against yield on share price (this is the differential needed to close the gap). They need to be paying 2p+ IMV despite the new shares, anything less than 1.75p would be poor.

Perhaps they shouldn't expect to compete with MedicX against NAV as they pay an uncovered dividend, but PHP who pay 5.6% of NAV should be the benchmark. They will probably struggle to match PHP's yield on EPRA as PHP have a better track record/cheaper debt. They should however be looking for 4.5-5% of adjusted NAV translating to a higher yield on the share price and providing a driver for a re-rating.

If they start by paying an overly conservative dividend then that would be an error IMV (surely they have already filled their quota of errors!). Shareholders have given them the money, it is time for AGR to start giving back with rental growth and development profits driving a solidly increasing dividend from a solid starting yield of well over 5% of the current share price of 33.5p.

[topvest] 27/2/2012 17:31

Yes, think these are undervalued now the bad news is out of the way. Focus will soon turn to the chunky final dividend, anywhere between 1 and 2p I guess. Anyone seen a latest dividend forecast?

[goliard] 27/2/2012 09:41

New Chairman isn't being too shy about his purchases. Nearly 1 million already.