Assura Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 28/2/2020 06:41

At the last interims in November, they said:

LTV of 36% provides good headroom to create value and build portfolio, weighted average interest rate of 3.16%

Completed private placement of £107 million notes in August

Undrawn committed facilities at £310 million

A- (stable outlook) rating from Fitch providing us with a broadened access to debt capital markets and lenders

and they last did equity funding over two years ago.
Undrawn facilities (maybe 3% int) suggests they don't need new equity. But 36% LTV suggests they might want equity. Hard to say!

[apollocreed1] 27/2/2020 21:05

Target and Impact definitely don't have a government rent guarantee, so I take your points that they're not comparable levels of safety. Thanks!

[steve3sandal] 27/2/2020 19:37

Fund raise. Good point. Gonna happen. Primary health case is much cheaper to deliver and that is Assuras space but needs doctors and needs pension reform.

[goliard] 27/2/2020 19:11

They have absolutely no nursing homes. I can guarantee that.

[horndean eagle] 27/2/2020 18:41

I think AGR will raise money soon. They would be crazy not to given the bonkers premium the shares are trading on. They haven't raised money for a while and have been making acquisitions so they will be approaching the high end of the LTV limits soon

[stupidboypike] 27/2/2020 09:09

great info on this thread - thanks to all. Best regards SBP

[jonwig] 27/2/2020 08:28

Worth adding that NH fees are likely to show a big rise in 2021: wage rates must go up to remedy staff shortages.

I have PoA for an eledrly lady who is self-funding in a home, and her fees have risen by between 3 and 5% pa since she entered in 2015.

[steve3sandal] 27/2/2020 08:00

Good question. There have been a few nursing home propcos which have failed when their opco couldn’t pay the rent, both public and private chains. The nursing home sector has great demand economics but it’s not terribly profitable despite the headlines about how much it costs. I don’t know the economics of Targets leaseholders and I’m sure Target have credit screened them, but no, despite a rental contract, their tenants might not be able to pay the rent. Perhaps the risk of default is small and certainly the occupants may remain with the rent paid by a receiver. The premium is probably for the same reason all high yield is at a premium, you can’t get that much anywhere else. Assurance, on the other hand should always receive their GP rent as it’s effective underwritten by the NHS. What’s is not guaranteed for Assura is the rent from the Pharmacy typically next door or any third party specialist space rented to private healthcare specialists. I haven’t checked just now but I’d guess something like >85% of Assura’s rent is state guaranteed. I hold Assura I don’t hold Target but please DYOR.

[jonwig] 27/2/2020 06:25

pollo - do they run nursing homes, or just own the premises and facilities?

NHs which rent have sometimes gone bust as local authorities are refusing to pay full market rates. That impacts the propco which doesn't get its rent.

Assura's rent is guaranteed. Is that true of the two you mention?

[apollocreed1] 26/2/2020 17:34

Assura seems expensive to me on a premium of about 50%.

Does anyone think that Target Healthcare or Impact Healthcare, which run nursing homes, are better deals for comparable companies? Target is on a premium of 15% and Impact on a premium of about 8%.

Or is it possible to say that Nursing homes and their income streams are less reliable than the GP practices that Assura runs?

[zeppo] 16/2/2020 15:15

A 'Hold' in today's Sunday Telegraph which I have only glanced at.

Price at a premium to asset value?

This is a stalwart income share for me.

Quarterly dividends and growing dividends.

Loaded up at last Rights Isdue.

I hope that there is another Rights Issue as I have reduced a little to successfully fund capital growth shares in the Hydrogen Economy.( CWR, ITM, PHE, and AFC)

[entropick] 16/2/2020 14:25

the NHS needs outside capital and this trust has made hay by providing it
Assura, the real estate investment business that owns GPs’ surgeries, has prospered without fuss

[winsome] 12/11/2019 08:04

Probably the most stable and dependable company in the FT350. Justified premium in IMO as the yield is still decent despite the recent share price rise.

[jonwig] 12/11/2019 07:20

H1 results look to be much in line. The diluted EPRA NAV per share (the usual measure) of 53.5p means the share price is on a 36% premium: a bit of a stretch maybe! There's the risk of some profit-taking, naturally.

Quarterly dividends raised by 1.8% and outlook strong.

[moizz] 24/10/2019 12:03

When in Nov are the interims out do we know a date?

[zeppo] 15/10/2019 16:37

Takeover possibly?

Or less likelihood of the very, very minor risk from Corbyn.

AGR have confirmed at two AGMs that they talk to the three main political parties.

[hiddendepths] 15/10/2019 15:56

Wow. There's an awful lot of buying going on. It's been happening for a while but it seems to be intensifying. I wonder why.

[jonwig] 03/10/2019 07:10

Brief, but very positive trading update:



FY results 12 Nov.

[jonwig] 23/8/2019 09:10

Jom - agreed. As far as I'm aware, Labour's plans don't affect AGR's business model. Though Labour's plans are beginning to seem rather quaint and irrelevant, perhaps!

[jombaston] 23/8/2019 09:05

AGR is now pretty much in line with PHP.

The valuations got out of line when PHP rose sharply following the Medicx takeover.

With the 10 yr gilt yield now at 0.55% it is difficult to argue these are expensive even below 4% yield.

Alternatives would be infrastructure funds (esp those with low PPP weightings), renewables (experienced operators) and industrial/warehousing REITs.

Those would give you a little more yield and should be safe, but still probably not quite as secure income as AGR & PHP.

[jonwig] 22/8/2019 06:25

Hyperboreus - hah! Thanks. Not only my predictive powers are feeble.

[hyperboreus] 21/8/2019 22:52

Today jonwig?



'5. Date on which the threshold was crossed or reached: 6 December 2017

6. Date on which issuer notified (DD/MM/YYYY): 7 December 2017'

'Corrected disclosure. The position of Artemis Investment Management LLP has been corrected to 8.20% from 8.71%.'