Asos Share Discussion Threads

[one_frankel] 04/9/2022 14:11

Ohh really and a business plan can make some incredibly sound judgements from around one to two decades ahead of here and now can it, interesting!

[factsandfigures] 04/9/2022 13:59

Bear in mind that its ASOS PLC that has been briefing City analysts about a significant decline in Profits, it is NOT just hearsay.



Evidence is mounting that the UK's cost of living crisis is taking a toll on retailers. ASOS plc has been privately warning City analysts that pre-tax profits for the financial year just ended, will be towards the bottom end of the £20 Million to £60 Million range it gave out back in June.

This represents a massive FALL on ASOS's previous profit forecast of between £110 Million and £140 Million.

ASOS also indicated that total annual sales for 2022/23 were likely to fall well below consensus forecasts, leading one City analyst to say he was "slightly uneasy" at the way ASOS was managing expectations.


THAT SOUNDS LIKE A "STRONG SELL" RECOMMENDATION

[dealy] 04/9/2022 13:30

its called a business plan and that is what leads to the valuation

[one_frankel] 04/9/2022 13:19

Wow, if a company could anticipate profits for the next ten to twenty years, that would be highly commendable except nigh on impossible...12-18 months seems more realistic!

[theonewhoknows2] 04/9/2022 11:34

never buy anything in a downtrend.wait for a clear reversal and uptrend before buying.

[dealy] 04/9/2022 11:33

all priced in. Besides, the value of the company is based on the future profits and cash flow over the next 10 to 20 yearsThis company raised money at 1560p in April 2020. Investors buying now are getting a bargain.

[factsandfigures] 04/9/2022 11:18

Evidence is mounting that the UK's cost of living crisis is taking a toll on retailers. ASOS plc has been privately warning City analysts that pre-tax profits for the financial year just ended, will be towards the bottom end of the £20 Million to £60 Million range it gave out back in June.

This represents a massive FALL on ASOS's previous profit forecast of between £110 Million and £140 Million.

ASOS also indicated that total annual sales for 2022/23 were likely to fall well below consensus forecasts, leading one City analyst to say he was "slightly uneasy" at the way ASOS was managing expectations.


THAT SOUNDS LIKE A "STRONG SELL" RECOMMENDATION

[fuji99] 02/9/2022 07:19

I cannot see how people will buy anything without thinking if it's necessary or not. They used to buy impulsively - - -

[factsandfigures] 02/9/2022 06:17

MOST ASOS CUSTOMERS WON’T HAVE ANY MONEY TO SPEND ON NEW CLOTHES !!
====================================================================

Established in 2005, The Resolution Foundation is an independent think-tank that focuses on improving living standards for those on low to middle incomes within the UK.

In its latest report published yesterday, it warned of a "frankly terrifying" outlook for living standards in the UK.

The report highlights that real household disposable incomes are on track to fall by 10% over the next two years, and that the number of people living in absolute poverty will likely rise to 14 Million people in 2023-24, unless economic policies change.

hxxps://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/in-at-the-deep-end/

[fuji99] 01/9/2022 12:04

perch3 - In 1992 you were 22/23 so spending at that age was almost taken for granted and "inflation" or "recession" were just strange words. In those recession periods, there was always light at the end of the tunnel but today we are facing another type of beast. High inflation + high interest rates coupled with serious conflict in Ukraine with no end on sight. This is assuming China & Taiwan will calm down ... IMO nobody can extrapolate an outcome this time until Ukraine/Russia conflict is over.

[perch3] 01/9/2022 11:32

Agree with synopsis fuji , however, we mustn't forget the target consumer here. Agree large % of home owner population are going to find it much tighter over the next 12+ months, however, many many Asos consumers don't have mortgages or energy bills to pay . Their spend % mix is much different to the people you see staring at their bills on the bbc news website . My point is I remember a deep recession in 1992 when I was 23 ....didn't effect how I spent money AT ALL

[wolfofhounslow] 01/9/2022 11:25

And how much is priced in ? We know the reasons and this has dropped from 5000++

[fuji99] 01/9/2022 10:23

The simple picture of the economy and the market is this: High inflation = increase in price of goods = less spending. Then if inflation persists, high wages are required. For companies to sustain high wages, they must reduce headcounts. So we will have a situation where people do not spend because they cannot afford it. People with a job will spend less because they are worried of losing it because of on-going redundancies. So from where consumers will come from ? I expect this year, not a Christmas rally, but a Christmas disaster, particularly for consumer goods companies.

[milliecusto] 01/9/2022 09:36

We haven't even hit a full catch yet, this could go as low as double digits

[dealy] 01/9/2022 09:20

total crash

[melegramforttongo] 31/8/2022 15:01

Gandolf thinks the entire future is priced in

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[fuji99] 30/8/2022 14:29

I agree that the market is usually anticipating the future but this is the first time nobody can anticipate anything due to serious geopolitical issues (Russia/Ukraine and China/Taiwan). In addition, even if we had some visibility, what one can expect to get from retail stocks till then ? Very likely a series of profit warnings. They cannot anticipate consumers behaviour until they actually start buying. This is why this sector is a bit tricky. I cannot see anyone buying as they used to do when people are becoming poorer due to high inflation and possibly job cuts as companies cannot sustain pay rises without cutting workforce. IMO we are in a very different environment so very difficult to extrapolate any outcome from the past.

[jgandolfi1] 30/8/2022 13:44

there is a great chance that the market will have already priced these problems by 2023 based on the Bank of England forecast. The price is always based on the future

[fuji99] 30/8/2022 13:07

It's a question of from where growth will come while people are suffering inflation hardship. IMO this sector will shrink for one or two years. So I won't be surprised to see share price halved in retail, travel and entertainment in the next 6 months. I think people are wasting their time in believing ASC or any other share will recover. Coming profit warnings will always flag up business difficulties in this sector.

[dealy] 30/8/2022 08:15

no it doesn't. it looks like a dramatically oversold and undervalued share.

[lodgeview] 29/8/2022 13:38

Looks like they'll be bust within a few months.

[arja] 29/8/2022 10:30

the chart looks horrendous with more downside but that applies to quite a lot of shares at the moment . US indices futures falling further is a bad omen when Uk market opens tomorrow unless the US indices stage a recovery when physical market opens at 2.30pm today . I doubt my CFD provider will allow shorting of ASOS but might be wrong :) . I very rarely short but tomorrow I certainly will short something

[zaxarobal] 29/8/2022 08:19

"October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February." - Mark Twain