Asiamet Resources Share Discussion Threads

[adw198] 22/11/2023 13:12

And in fairness at least the last RNS spelt it out that nothing material is imminent

“Continuation of project engineering, formal engagement with key execution contractors and delivering on several site-based programs *are all requirements ahead of* completing a project financing package*.

[2lb] 22/11/2023 11:57

They've got their cash , I can't see anything now other than the continued lack of tangible progress in the short term despite claims to be a "hive of activity".Same old same old , all talk until the cash arrives then they crawl back under their stone.

[adw198] 22/11/2023 11:30

I stand by my view that I don’t see any off take arrangements being signed in the next few month given we’re miles off debt finance and have next to no chance of an equity deal. We’re not even close to permits so it would take a brave company to sign up to an off take deal in that context.

We’ll see who is right and hopefully it’s not me!

[dorset64] 22/11/2023 11:20

ADW, the off-take agreement can be signed at any point but most likely in tandem with corporate finance as, and only once the off-take has been signed, will they know what percentage of the overall amount it covers. There's many strings to such agreements as in if the first deal only wants, say, 30% of the overall production, they would pay a far higher price compared to a company agreeing to take 100% of production.These figures will be based upon the copper price in 3 to 4 years or even 5 (my guess), as they will likely be paying a higher than the expected copper price in the first few years compared to paying substantially less then the final 5 or so years of mining. Other options include all the expected money up front or, say, 50% of it etc etc.

[adw198] 21/11/2023 19:06

Dorset, no I don’t think that so you’ve misunderstood. My point is how many more dilutive raises will be required to get us to production and even then the payback stage? The $230m you think they can raise won’t be earmarked as being for Asiamets general running costs and infact we’ll need a much bigger level of expenditure to underpin such a huge project. That’s my view anyway. How do you see it working?

Mostyn, I doubt anyone will sign an offtake agreement without the rest of the finance being in place / close to in place. I’m definitely happy to be corrected on that point though I’ve never seen been involved in a company going through this.

[dorset64] 21/11/2023 18:50

ADW, so you think if they do raise $230m from the banks, that gets them into production, that they'll re-pay this figure by having future fund raises and diluting their shareholders to this amount?Really?Have you never looked up how a profitable mine works?

[mostyn] 21/11/2023 18:13

Hi Adw198

After all the recent interviews and progress updates I think there is a decent chance of the following in the next few (not company speak few) months:

Regular updates on progress (as per DM)
EPC Contractor appointment.
Lead Bank - not before time after all the prior comments on the subject.
Offtake agreement - not as confident on this one as due diligence takes forever.

On the basis that they say they have had interested parties for at least the last 4-5 years, I think something will happen eventually, probably within the next 4-5 years.

I don't think even these milestones, if they in fact appear, will do a huge amount for the share price in this market, although I would like to see the price have a decent move above 1p. The only thing I could see having any significant impact would be something either at the project or corporate level, which would then place an independent valuation on the assets. The major impediment in my view is the current share price which would, in all likelihood, lead to offers the company couldn't accept. Chicken and egg.....

[adw198] 21/11/2023 17:35

Hi Mostyn
What (decent) news are you expecting in the next few months?

I’m not surprised nobody new is buying because even you think they can raise $230m from somewhere (they’ve not said where) then they’ll still be several more rounds of dilution required before the $230m is repaid. We’re not bust is the glimmer of positivity.

[mostyn] 21/11/2023 16:57

Considering the downside should be very limited with the company now cashed up, and no overhang to consider, it's surprising that there hasn't been more interest. Even on a worst case scenario, there should be some decent news flow over the next few months, and Darryn McClelland seems keen to keep investors informed about progress.

[jimbo310813] 21/11/2023 16:42

at last someone's bought some shares!

[adw198] 16/11/2023 12:20

I think the TM valuation needs some realism around it mate.
They’ve just touted lots of interest and the output was, as you (very well) summarised selling 14.29% of the enlarged share capital for $4M. Presumably *they*regarded that as fair value for shareholders? And that’s to an investor who were previously considering paying $50m for 51% of KSK.

This, sadly, is where we are. And nothing is likely to happen for the foreseeable other than another wave of spending and drifting further away from accurate cost assumptions for FS22(23). Im pretty sure the plan is to string us along until copper really makes a move - at which point DOID will take us. Unfortunately it’s unclear how long and how many raises will be needed before then.

[mostyn] 16/11/2023 12:02

Hi Adw198,

It's a summary of what is, rather than what might have been. We are where we are so this is day 1 of the future. Is it frustrating to see the DOID subscription at nearly an all time low - yes. Can we do anything about it - no. We just have to live with it from here. Even at this poor price it's much better than a market placement wold have been. None of this means I'm happy, but it does mean that money isn't an issue for some considerable time.

I would agree that this means nothing on the corporate/project front is likely to happen any time soon, or perhaps the company couldn't predict the timing before they ran out of money. On balance I think they would have had a good idea of the likelihood of anything happening in the near term, so this does mean nothing soon. I do, however, believe that there will be some action at a project level (BKM/KSK or Beutong) at some stage in the not too distant future, but I also believe that the current share price is a major inhibitor. They have just effectively sold 14.29% of the enlarged share capital for $4M. This compares to a company that TM stated could be worth hundreds of millions if not billions. What company looking at the figure of $4M is going to be able to make a sensible offer that the management should, rather than could, accept.

It makes more sense for someone to put a cheap bid for the company, with the hope that DOID wouldn't block it with their 34.5% holding. Another 16% and DOID would have control.

[adw198] 16/11/2023 11:34

Hi Mostyn, that’s a charitable summary imo.
The cash runway is a positive, or certainly to those of us who recognised money was needed fairly imminently, but the dilution is obviously an issue. As is the fact that DOID are obviously acting out of self interest and thus negotiated a better deal - again which some of us recognised was likely. Does a high share price in the short term suit their agenda? I say not. Also note only last month we were told

“the Company has been approached by several interested Asian companies looking to advance the BKM copper project or make a direct investment in the project/company. We are actively pursuing these opportunities to ensure fair and reasonable value for our stakeholders”.

So did that come to nothing and that’s why we gave DOID a private placement at a near all time low?

But ultimately where is this the plan to get this into production? What milestones need to be hit and when - yday saw a moving of the goalposts by giving a list of things that need to be done before finance. Finance was supposed to be fast tracked by virtue of the huge delay to the updated FS and the role of the ITE. Don’t forget a month ago they admitted they hadn’t even started talking to banks other the potential lead bank, who themselves remain nameless but seemingly capable of calling the ITE shots.

The last presentation showed production in 2026, which allowing for a 2 year build means getting all finance and permits agreed mid next year. And if anyone thinks that’s happening then I’ll have a(nother) charity bet. This is just going drift along now till DOID finally put us out of our misery.

[mostyn] 16/11/2023 10:38

It's a bit surprising that the DOID subscription hasn't somewhat encouraged the market. Even though it's a steal for DOID, it is somewhat of a vote of confidence. DOID aren't putting up cash on the expectation they are going to lose money so this ought to be an indicator to the market that there is value here. Nothing I have seen to date suggests that those controlling DOID are stupid, quite the reverse.

This ought to give Asiamet a cash runway of around 18 months, and a lot should happen in that time. Additionally as the shares have gone to DOID there is no overhang. The main reason I can think of for the market being so uninterested, is that there are a load of investors very unhappy with the price of the subscription, and the fact that DOID waited until the the day after 20% premium expired (in line with their obvious self interest) before jumping in.

This is tempting fate, but this should be the last of the news to to upset shareholders, although it should be some relief to get the money in on terms much better than a general market placing would have been. Any news from now, if it represents progress, should be a positive for the share price.

Darryn McClelland subscribed for 4,000,000 shares. He is not stupid either.

[bradshaw182] 15/11/2023 17:01

Your mom makes me feel at home

[v11slr] 15/11/2023 16:57

Makes you feel at home then.

[v11slr] 15/11/2023 16:30

Profile created 15/11/2023, makes you wonder?

[bradshaw182] 15/11/2023 15:27

Don't pretend you haven't read my content, It's word class FACT !!

[bradshaw182] 15/11/2023 14:41

Anyway no offence but your biggest mistake was thinking everything was going to go exactly according to plan on an AIM penny mining stock in a jurisdiction most North Americans wouldn't look twice at, in the middle of an island that has never had a copper mine before ! It will be an enormous achievement if Manini manages to get anything out of this for shareholders, accept reality baby boi !!